What we know thus far, when do you think Gen 3 will actually be delivered?

[anticitizen13.7]

This board amuses me because anytime someone says something negative about Tesla everyone freaks out and thinks we're shorting the stock or are involved in some kind of plot to ruin the company. You people make Apple fanbois look like haters. Look at my .sig. I'm a believer in Tesla, but I'm also a realist and have worked in Silicon Valley for the past 15 years. My company has never hit a stated date either, it's part of the culture.

I realize that my use of the word "never" is provocative and perhaps I should have said "almost never." But look, it's clear by the articles in your .sig that you are talking your book. There is literally nothing I can say that will counter your faith and I have better things to do with my time than argue on the Internet. My prediction of Gen 3 production in 2018 stands.

I hope I'm not included in "everyone", because I am well aware that Tesla is not perfect. Yes, there have been delays and the Model S ramp-up was initially very slow. Tesla has dropped features and made options changes without notifying customers (the alcantara headliner change being the one glaring example). Still, I think the people there are really driven to get the product to be as great as possible.

Engineering is difficult work involving lots of experimentation and iteration, so I agree that delays are to be expected.

Whether G3 launches in 2017 or 2018 will probably make little difference in the long run. It's not like iPhones where people demand a new model every year!

 

[JRP3]

Feeling a bit like Charlie Brown and the football I'm going with 2017 for the following reasons, similar to what others have posted. The Gen3 should be an easier car to design and build, certainly more so than the X. Tesla will have a lot more experience designing and building EV's after doing the S and X. The GF need not be in full production, or even on line for early G3 cars. However, since Panasonic has previously shown they can go from announcing a new factory to cell production in 15 months I expect some of the production lines will be up and running in the GF by 2017.

http://www.zemotoring.com/news/2011/04/panasonic-to-build-new-366-million-lithium-ion-plant-in-china
http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120717-2/en120717-2.html

 

[roblab]

The article below was available on the net this morning. It says that Chris Porritt, the company’s vice-president of engineering a Brit who left Aston Martin last year to join Tesla, told Autocar that the price of batteries was the key calculation when engineering the model, which is expected in late 2016. “Building the Gigafactory will help make battery manufacturing more cost-effective,” he said.



Tesla promises realistic pricing for new BMW 3-series rival | Autocar

And another article on Gas 2.0 says that the Model E will be built of steel to keep production down, although the article states "it won't be all aluminum", which gets translated in journalism-speak to "mostly steel". They also quote a Tesla management person saying the car will be built in 2020. !!

Gas 2 | Bridging the gap between green heads and gear heads.

I don't ever know what to take seriously.

And like those articles, some believe them with something akin to faith, others have doubts.

Me, I prefer to wait and see what actually happens.

 

[hileyms]

I agree with you roblab wait and see what actually happens.

 

[igotzzoom]

Actually, I think a slightly later introduction for the Gen-III could work in Tesla's favor. Logistics and supply will be critical for its success. Also, I think the decks need to be cleared for unrestricted sales nationally, rather than having to fight these state-by-state turf wars with the dealer associations. I have a feeling this will ultimately go to the SCOTUS, and there's a good chance the justices could rule in favor of Tesla under the interstate commerce clause. If the gigafactory (or gigafactories) are up and running in full force, and Tesla is allowed to expand without artificial restrictions, then they could have well-stocked stores, and be able to meet the strong demand for the new product (which is practically assured, assuming the company can meet its vehicle performance and cost targets). I am not overly concerned if it's a few months here or there.

 

[strider]

The X was delayed I think because of 2 factors: Falcon wing doors and AWD. I don't think AWD has been done on a BEV before. The Falcon wings also must have posed serious engineering challenges.

If G3 is a straight up RWD sport sedan, I think Tesla could bring it to market by 2017 easily if there are no novel features.

Whether Tesla can build G3 at 300k+ units/year in 2017 is obviously a different question.

Although it's a PHEV the Porsche 918 has both front and rear electric motors so AWD isn't new. And if you go w/ the assumption that they will come out w/ the most expensive versions first (which is good for margin and like DaveT states would allow them to produce prior to realizing all the cost gains necessary for the base model <- interesting point, thanks for posting) then they will need to have an AWD version at launch.

I hope I'm not included in "everyone", because I am well aware that Tesla is not perfect. Yes, there have been delays and the Model S ramp-up was initially very slow. Tesla has dropped features and made options changes without notifying customers (the alcantara headliner change being the one glaring example). Still, I think the people there are really driven to get the product to be as great as possible.

Engineering is difficult work involving lots of experimentation and iteration, so I agree that delays are to be expected.

Whether G3 launches in 2017 or 2018 will probably make little difference in the long run. It's not like iPhones where people demand a new model every year!

I agree w/ you. My estimate of 2018 doesn't mean that Tesla will fail - it's simply my reading of the tea leaves which is all anyone is doing in this thread. We all know that none of their competitors are anywhere close to them so having a well-built car and scaled production capacity is more important than 2017 or 2018.

 

[sigurdi]

The development time of the 918 Spider was 3 years, and this is a supercar.
Gen III is a car and not a supercar, superimportan but a regurlar car for the normal user.
It is quite posible the design team have been working on it for some time already. It is more technical solutions on the X, that have neded to be finalized.
The Gigafactory, where Tesla owns the buildings and assably of batterypacks, it is Panasonic and theyr suppliers that occupies large areas og the factory.
It is faster when multiple lagrer companies can build and move in at once, compared to one that nede to do all.

I gjess production start spring 2017, volume production Q2 raring slowly up and full production 2018.

 

[Red Sage]

The GIII will be shown in January 2015 at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit Michigan. Surprise! It will not be a sedan, but three vehicles, of a potential five or more (sedan, coupe, crossover, wagon, minivan, etc.). It will hopefully be given an actual name, and though I have hoped for EPSILON, I could live with GenE, Gen☷ or E'lon instead.

The first units will be delivered in the final quarter of 2016. Production will ramp up gradually through the first half of 2017. Full production at a rate of 100,000 units per year will commence by the end of Summer 2017. That will increase to 200,000 in 2018, and reach 400,000 in 2019.

 

[green1]

The GIII will be shown in January 2015 at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit Michigan. Surprise! It will not be a sedan, but three vehicles, of a potential five or more (sedan, coupe, crossover, wagon, minivan, etc.). It will hopefully be given an actual name, and though I have hoped for EPSILON, I could live with GenE, Gen☷ or E'lon instead.

The first units will be delivered in the final quarter of 2016. Production will ramp up gradually through the first half of 2017. Full production at a rate of 100,000 units per year will commence by the end of Summer 2017. That will increase to 200,000 in 2018, and reach 400,000 in 2019.

There's an awful lot of certainty in that post for information that has, to date, been pure speculation. Do you mind sharing your source?

 

[ecarfan]

I think he's just speculating, like everyone else, but in detail.

My speculation is that the Gen III car will initially only be produced as a sedan. Other versions will come later. Tesla lacks the resources to simultaneously launch multiple variations on a single platform.

 

[dirkhh]

Totally agree, ecarfan.
Sedan only. In 2018. Announced late 2016.

 

[stopcrazypp]

My speculation is that the Gen III car will initially only be produced as a sedan.

Small clarification (as I assume you mean the same): it'll probably be a sedan-like hatchback like the Model S, not a traditional sedan with a trunk.

 

[Tasdevil]

I think gen3 could possibly be more of a modelX shape(but with normal doors and 20% smaller)
The modelS being shrunk by 20% would compromise too much on head room. That's why I think it will be abit more boxy like the X than the sleek S.

 

[igotzzoom]

I think gen3 could possibly be more of a modelX shape(but with normal doors and 20% smaller)
The modelS being shrunk by 20% would compromise too much on head room. That's why I think it will be abit more boxy like the X than the sleek S.

I think it will have more clipped front and rear overhangs than the Model S, but will probably still be a 5-door liftback. Proportions will obviously be a little different, but I'm not sure it will necessarily have crossover-type proportions. However, it's believed there will be a crossover variant of the Gen-III eventually. I'm personally more interested in a sport sedan-type vehicle than a crossover, but there's no denying the popularity and sales opportunity of crossovers.

 

[Red Sage]

There's an awful lot of certainty in that post for information that has, to date, been pure speculation. Do you mind sharing your source?

I thought the point of this thread "...when do you think..." was speculation? This is my own, personal [WHISKEY ALPHA GOLF]. Yes, I write, as I speak, with confidence and certainty. I guarantee and warrant that if I'm wrong, I will be absolutely, 100% infallibly incorrect. I should update my signature here to reflect that... ;-)

 

[igotzzoom]

I thought the point of this thread "...when do you think..." was speculation? This is my own, personal [WHISKEY ALPHA GOLF]. Yes, I write, as I speak, with confidence and certainty. I guarantee and warrant that if I'm wrong, I will be absolutely, 100% infallibly incorrect. I should update my signature here to reflect that... ;-)

Spoken like a true Jedi:

 

[Red Sage]

igotzzoom: Thanks! I do love me some Jedi Mind Tricks!

BTW, I'm not sure if it was your intent, but I've always loved the song, 'I Got Six' by Schoolhouse Rock.

 

[mknox]

I guess it's officially the "Model 3"

 

[NigelM]

The first units will be delivered in the final quarter of 2016. Production will ramp up gradually through the first half of 2017. Full production at a rate of 100,000 units per year will commence by the end of Summer 2017. That will increase to 200,000 in 2018, and reach 400,000 in 2019.

How are they going to do that without batteries? The current plan (assuming all goes well) is for the gigafactory to come online in 2017 with full annualized production in 2020.

Sorry to be the party-pooper but I think folks are pretty much ignoring the supply constraints here.

 

[igotzzoom]

I think it's realistic to expect the Model III will be available Spring 2017, but large-scale availability may not be 'til '18 or '19. I'm hoping to be one of the first 50,000 owners. Initially I said 10k, but I think demand for this new model will be so hot, that I'll be lucky if I can make it into that l337 club.