Please everyone stop raping the statistics. The ICE fires are in the thousands and their distribution is governed by the normal distribution that most of your statistics are based on. The Model S statistics are so low that it's governed by Poisson statistics and that has completely different characteristics. I deal with low probability events daily (Higgs search at LHC) and have had to handle the differences and you can't believe how much difference there is. Your math here has error bars that are so huge that you cannot draw any conclusions really. In Poisson statistics 0-2 events are statistically inseparable so even if you expect 0 events and observe 2 you cannot claim disparity between the two measurements. With three you start to get somewhere, but only if you really expected 0 in the first place. If you expect even one (or worse ca 3), then one to about six events are fully compatible (or one to ten). You can start using your normal statistics when the number of incidents expected is largish i.e. my statistics teacher used to say that 30 and infinity are about the same, it's not quite that simple, but around that region the Poisson starts to converge towards the normal distribution...
so overall I'd have to do some more complex math and not going to do this from my iPad in bed, but three or one fires make no statistical difference at this point. They do however make a world of difference to public perception especially due to nearness in time. Physics is full of freaky occurrences where unlikely events happen at start and are averaged out over time. We almost claimed discovery in 2011 of a new particle when events started to pop up at high mass with a subtantial gap to anything expected. We expected ca 0.1 events and saw 3 in a very short timeframe all together. Papers were written and taistics were debated as it was borderline close to discovery threshold. For safety it was conceded that a fourth event would lock this down hard so the papers etc were held ready and a special priority analysis was run almost live on new data daily, some people didn't sleep for a week as this was big (fundamental physics changing big). Int he end the event didn't come. After a couple of weeks we went from red alarm to orange to yellow to green as background expectations caught up and we went from 99.9% probability down to 95% to 68% and dropped further. Statistical fluctuations happen, but nature takes care of it over time...