TSLA Technical Analysis

[Renaud]

Nice action yesterday until the interview or conference.
If we open in the low 190, or at 190, the last time there was such a gap at the opening was after the D reveal, in October.
Close 9 october: 257 Open next day at 244, close 237.
On the 15th of october, there was a low of 217. "Only" -15% in 6 days.
If we do as bad as that, that will bring us down to 173.
Some see 178 as a support...

 

[Gerasimental]

Nice action yesterday until the interview or conference.
If we open in the low 190, or at 190, the last time there was such a gap at the opening was after the D reveal, in October.
Close 9 october: 257 Open next day at 244, close 237.
On the 15th of october, there was a low of 217. "Only" -15% in 6 days.
If we do as bad as that, that will bring us down to 173.
Some see 178 as a support...

There were basically no other catalysts after the D event though, whereas we now have Q4 earnings, Model X reveal, Service Centre update, P85D reviews etc coming up, so I'm not sure if it's a fair comparison. Also this drop hasn't followed an artificial stock price increase based on unrealistic expectations like the one following the D event did.

 

[maoing]

borrow Gerasimental's header&shoulder diagram from http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...Movements-2015?p=873644&viewfull=1#post873644

I've been following this pattern closely. Here is my thought FYI.

From the 2014 May low 177, we clearly see 4 stages all the way climbing to 291. At the time hitting 192 before Chirstmas, I was really hoping 192 is the bottom but I worried about the last leg (i.e. 4th down stage). Unfortunately the last leg was forming from the day before yesterday when hit through 200 again, and today it became a reality. I'm not saying TA is 100% legitimate, but just keep in mind the last leg could potentially hit lower range than 177 if header&shoulder pattern stands.

 

[JFK]

From a novice point of view, looking at the chart the trend is down.

 

[sundaymorning]

From a novice point of view, looking at the chart the trend is down.

If uptrends continue as they were, Tesla would have been above $300, and if downtrends continue as it is, it would be back to $30s. Trends are of the imagination. How many times has TA failed us in the past? Countless... from the chart above, the selling point is a symmetrical graph, I wish investing were that easy... it's easier for one to want to believe in symmetry than asymmetry, hence, the graph looks better this way. I wouldn't be suckered into this sales pitch. You want to know what's going to drive the market tomorrow? Oil, earnings and CPI, good luck charting that SMH

 

[EldestOyster]

For whatever reasons, folks here like to watch the 200DMA, and the charts I punch up never show that particular metric. Nonetheless, it occurs to me that if we wait long enough at these lower prices, all the various averages will come down to meet us, making them easier to exceed

 

[Raffy.Roma]

For whatever reasons, folks here like to watch the 200DMA, and the charts I punch up never show that particular metric. Nonetheless, it occurs to me that if we wait long enough at these lower prices, all the various averages will come down to meet us, making them easier to exceed

Don't think that this is a good idea.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

As far as I can see, SP was at an all time closing high of $291.42 on 2014-09-04.
With the 62% Fibonacci ratio we get $180,1074650014944.
I could imagine this being a price point a lot of shorts are lurking at.

 

[Gerasimental]

$180,1074650014944.

That's some german precision right there.

 

[Twiddler]

Just drawing some pretty lines, and so far they have held. With the RSI <30, it would not surprise me if we had a relief rally here soon followed by either recovery or the 1000th right shoulder down. Interestingly, the 185 mark meets the 30-35% correction level that we last hit at 177 from the high of 265.

 

[sundaymorning]

Just drawing some pretty lines, and so far they have held. With the RSI <30, it would not surprise me if we had a relief rally here soon followed by either recovery or the 1000th right shoulder down. Interestingly, the 185 mark meets the 30-35% correction level that we last hit at 177 from the high of 265.

View attachment 69821

I appreciate the graph and guesstimate but if you look a few posts up, another member has a contradicting graph going much further down to the negative channel. TA to me is a guessing game based off of gut feeling or momentum.

 

[Twiddler]

I appreciate the graph and guesstimate but if you look a few posts up, another member has a contradicting graph going much further down to the negative channel. TA to me is a guessing game based off of gut feeling or momentum.

Right, but I would actually argue that they do not contradict each other at all. The stock is technically oversold right now, and at the end of its current short-term downtrend that started right before Elon's speech based on the chart itself, RSI, and the stochastic RSI for this trend. It therefore is due for a relief rally to form the next shoulder within the massive series of head and shoulder patterns, but technically the current move down is overdone and that is the only thing that I see contrary to the previous chart. Once that is formed, the stock will then decide whether to move up or down. The prior graph suggests that move down, and I unfortunately tend to agree in the absence of any news, in order to touch $177, the only thing going against that being that we have already corrected by 35%. All I am arguing really is that on a technical level, we should be due for a minor oversold bounce at the very least in the near term. That said, I also agree that TA is a bunch of crap that now serves as a largely self-fulfilling prophecy in the absence of catalysts.

 

[sundaymorning]

Right, but I would actually argue that they do not contradict each other at all. The stock is technically oversold right now, and at the end of its current short-term downtrend that started right before Elon's speech based on the chart itself, RSI, and the stochastic RSI for this trend. It therefore is due for a relief rally to form the next shoulder within the massive series of head and shoulder patterns, but technically the current move down is overdone and that is the only thing that I see contrary to the previous chart. Once that is formed, the stock will then decide whether to move up or down. The prior graph suggests that move down, and I unfortunately tend to agree in the absence of any news, in order to touch $177, the only thing going against that being that we have already corrected by 35%. All I am arguing really is that on a technical level, we should be due for a minor oversold bounce at the very least in the near term. That said, I also agree that TA is a bunch of crap that now serves as a largely self-fulfilling prophecy in the absence of catalysts.

I agree with you on TSLA being oversold and a relief rally should be coming soon, it's long overdue. From my experience, RSI can be broken in both directions. The measurement is helpful for day traders, but has very little affect on how the price fluctuates. The last sentence in your quote hit the bullseye. $177 would be a really great deal if it ever gets that low, I hope investors here realize that.. I remember when DaveT posted after the f@$& incidents, this drop reminds me of that, and I remember his thought process:

if Tesla drops below $188, I'd give it an 80% probability that it'll bounce off of $182 support level.
if Tesla drops to $182, I'd give it an 80% probability that $178 will hold.

The thought process is that as a stock drops, it gets harder for it to go lower as more investors eyeing an opportunity will jump in and seize a deal. We've tested the $180s several times the past couple weeks, and in all instances the bounce was rather quick. All this stock needs is a little nudge... I can feel it, and I think a lot of us here carry that same "wisdom."

 

[Raffy.Roma]

The 50-DMA is $7 under the 200-DMA. Not good for the stock.

 

[maoing]

Also 50MA is still heading down, usually the reverse should happen after 50MA trending flat, then trending up to cross 200MA again. I expect it'll happen in couple of months.

The 50-DMA is $7 under the 200-DMA. Not good for the stock.

- - - Updated - - -

Twiddler, thanks for your relief rally reminder. It's coincident with AJ's downgrade note, so it's perfect timing to get some quick money. I grabbed a large batch of shares in premarket when SP down 2-3% and fairly decent gain so far. But I'm still not convinced this is reverse. Barring any major news, I expect the SP will drift down to low 190 level again. Will closely monitor the price action and relative strength of TSLA in next a few days.

Right, but I would actually argue that they do not contradict each other at all. The stock is technically oversold right now, and at the end of its current short-term downtrend that started right before Elon's speech based on the chart itself, RSI, and the stochastic RSI for this trend. It therefore is due for a relief rally to form the next shoulder within the massive series of head and shoulder patterns, but technically the current move down is overdone and that is the only thing that I see contrary to the previous chart. Once that is formed, the stock will then decide whether to move up or down. The prior graph suggests that move down, and I unfortunately tend to agree in the absence of any news, in order to touch $177, the only thing going against that being that we have already corrected by 35%. All I am arguing really is that on a technical level, we should be due for a minor oversold bounce at the very least in the near term. That said, I also agree that TA is a bunch of crap that now serves as a largely self-fulfilling prophecy in the absence of catalysts.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Hammer formed on the 20th, above mid-point of Bollinger band of $199 (we just closed at $201.62), with RSI = 37. Tomorrow will be interesting to see what we close at.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

From a technical point of view some traders see TSLA currently in a falling wedge (on the daily chart).
The upper bound is derived by drawing a line connecting the recent highs, the lower bound connecting the recent lows.
This could be some kind of explanation for yesterday's close that kept us at the upper bound inside the falling wedge.
According to this thesis we could see some downside during the next two weeks.
Does anybody know how to properly draw these upper and lower bounds and have a chart illustrating this falling wedge?
Thanks a bunch in advance!

 

[virtuesoft]

From a technical point of view some traders see TSLA currently in a falling wedge (on the daily chart).
The upper bound is derived by drawing a line connecting the recent highs, the lower bound connecting the recent lows.
This could be some kind of explanation for yesterday's close that kept us at the upper bound inside the falling wedge.
According to this thesis we could see some downside during the next two weeks.
Does anybody know how to properly draw these upper and lower bounds and have a chart illustrating this falling wedge?
Thanks a bunch in advance!

 

[v12 to 12v]

From a technical point of view some traders see TSLA currently in a falling wedge (on the daily chart).
The upper bound is derived by drawing a line connecting the recent highs, the lower bound connecting the recent lows.
This could be some kind of explanation for yesterday's close that kept us at the upper bound inside the falling wedge.
According to this thesis we could see some downside during the next two weeks.
Does anybody know how to properly draw these upper and lower bounds and have a chart illustrating this falling wedge?
Thanks a bunch in advance!

I have a simpler explanation. Volume was very low and the price was easily controlled. According to my model, "Max Pain" was at 202.50 strike and it has since drifted down to 200 due to a large number of calls bought at or under 202.5. Of course, this only works for very short term projections on low volume. Apple grabbed lots of volume yesterday.

 

[vgrinshpun]

From a technical point of view some traders see TSLA currently in a falling wedge (on the daily chart).
The upper bound is derived by drawing a line connecting the recent highs, the lower bound connecting the recent lows.
This could be some kind of explanation for yesterday's close that kept us at the upper bound inside the falling wedge.
According to this thesis we could see some downside during the next two weeks.
Does anybody know how to properly draw these upper and lower bounds and have a chart illustrating this falling wedge?
Thanks a bunch in advance!

We do seem to have a very well formed wedge pattern, with both the support and resistance tested 3 times. What is also interesting that for the past four days we are testing the resistance and it seem to culminate today with a hammer. Looks like we have a very good setup for the pre-earnings run-up.