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  1. Gerasimental

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seriously this forum sometimes :rolleyes:
  2. Gerasimental

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    PLEASE NO MORE TAYCAN POSTS. WRONG THREAD!
  3. Gerasimental

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    i think the issue is more that a discussion about the relative handling and acceleration capabilities of the Taycan and not-yet-existent Plaid Model S or New Roadster are at best very tangientially related to stock price or investor concerns. That discussion more properly belongs in other...
  4. Gerasimental

    First boatload of M3 to Europe

    Is CAPTAIN's captain drunk?
  5. Gerasimental

    Europe, let the games begin!!

    Thanks, that's great to hear! What's your config? I've seen over in the dutch forum that people there have been getting texts telling them they will be able to collect their cars in the week beginning 11th feb, which is also very promising! But I don't know if those people are owners or what...
  6. Gerasimental

    Europe, let the games begin!!

    What makes you think that Germany/Belgium are earlier than Switzerland. Have you seen anyone with deliveries planned for Feb in those countries?
  7. Gerasimental

    2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

    Just wanted to make the point that this difference in wh/mile between 3 and S/X is only to a very small extend due to differences in drive train efficiencies. Most of it is down the larger weight, larger tyres, and larger frontal area of the S/X compared to the 3.
  8. Gerasimental

    Received prepare delivery call today in china

    Sorry if I'm being dense, but where do you see what number you are in your respective country?
  9. Gerasimental

    First boatload of M3 to Europe

    Zeebrugge. ETA: 2am on the 3rd of February. Do we have any idea of how long the wait between a ship arriving and delivery is (let's say in central europe: Benelux, Germany, France etc)? Edit: Found this post in the Model S forum suggesting he got his car 14 days after the ship arrived (in NL)...
  10. Gerasimental

    Tesla Model 3 coming to UK

    I'm a 1st-day UK reservation holder and also didn't get the email, fwiw.
  11. Gerasimental

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Has it started? I see nothing on ir.tesla.com
  12. Gerasimental

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    Been taking a more arms-length approach to my TSLA long position over the last year or so so I've not been very active here, but still trying to keep fairly abreast of what's going on. Was just looking at Teslastats.no, and I believe March was around 2x March 2017, while April is already at 3x...
  13. Gerasimental

    Everything I've Been Able To Learn About The Model 3 Motor: Welcome to the Machine

    Agreed on every count. The difference between PMSRM and PMSynRM seems to have been lost in the CleanTechnica article. Haven't watched Ingineerix' video, but it would be interesting to see if he is more specific. Seeing the end windings should be enough to distinguish the two, right? As the PMSRM...
  14. Gerasimental

    Everything I've Been Able To Learn About The Model 3 Motor: Welcome to the Machine

    These are hybrid synchronous reluctance machines, or PM assisted synchronous reluctance machines. The article is claiming that Model 3 uses a hybrid SWITCHED reluctance machine. SRMs achieve higher torque densities thatn SynRMs but usually show high levels of torque ripple and noise/vibration...
  15. Gerasimental

    Model 3 Track Day: Laguna Seca

    Can't speak for the Bolt, but the i3 motor is a hybrid synchronous motor. This means it is a hybrid between a synchronous reluctance motor and a synchronous PM motor. It uses a distributed winding on the stator and a combination of permanent magnets and a flux barriers on the rotor. If the...
  16. Gerasimental

    Semi takes its first business trip

    Ummm, you ever visit the Model X and Model 3 forums in the run-up to each respective vehicle's increasingly delayed roll-out? Not sure 'low on drama' would be how I'd describe it :D
  17. Gerasimental

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Close! While it's true that the PM motor is probably slightly more efficient, the main reason is more likely that the losses, and therefore heating, in a PM motor occur almost entirely in the stator, which is quite easy to cool using an exterior water jacket. In an induction motor, you get...
  18. Gerasimental

    Semi gear reduction ratios

    The highest feasible ratio for a single stage of helical gears on parallel shafts is around 4:1, so you can guarantee that these are both 2-stage designs (same as Model S and probably Model 3) or 3-stage designs (for 23:1).
  19. Gerasimental

    Switched Reluctance motors

    Let's wait and see what Dyson put in their EV. I'm very excited for the first automotive SR motor. If the challenges of control and NVH can be overcome, they will most likely take over very quickly due to their low cost, high power density, and high efficiency (in the motor and the inverter). I...
  20. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Just did some numbers on this. According to Semi Trucks: By the Numbers - HDS Truck Driving Institute, semis cover 140bn miles per year and have an average fuel economy of 6mpg, for a total fuel consumption of 23.3bn gallons of diesel. At $2.5 per gallon (can't believe how cheap US fuel prices...
  21. Gerasimental

    Jaguar I-Pace

    Didn't Eds lose his job? :eek: Anyway, I don't have any leaks, and if I did, I would at the very least be circumspect enough to create a new account. All I have is a 'feeling' based on overhearing bits of phonecalls, gossip, and the tone in which I hear this project discussed. Sorry to...
  22. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    It's not just Elon. In engineering, when talking about mass production, cost ~ mass is a very common assumption.
  23. Gerasimental

    Jaguar I-Pace

    My line of work takes me very close to the inside of JLR, and I am continually amazed by the disconnect between the scraps of information I hear day-to-day, and the confidence with which Jaguar publicly promises to have this car in customers' hands by next year. We'll see!
  24. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    F1 cars use just over 100kg of petrol per race, or about 1280kWh of energy. Say an EV gets 2x as much useful energy per input energy, so it would need around 600kWh, which would weight around as much as 6 typical F1 cars. Of course, to haul that much weight around, the car would need much more...
  25. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Didn't even say they would, just that it 'looks like' they 'can'. Would consider 20k in Dec a very positive surprise. Expect 11k-13k.
  26. Gerasimental

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    Looks like we hit 601X, and are only 14 cars off the overall record. I wonder what proportion of cars in the UAE will be P100Ds... :)
  27. Gerasimental

    Multiple Gear Ratio Options

    Torque capacity basically scales with size of the motor. Since the Model S uses a 8:1 reduction gear, if I remember correctly, the motor would need to be 8 times as large to provide the necessary torque without a gear. This is obviously impractical in terms of size, cost, and mass, but also has...
  28. Gerasimental

    Jaguar I-Pace

    Still can't believe anyone thinks the I-Pace is good looking...
  29. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Then why did Alphabet drop too?
  30. Gerasimental

    UK Owner looking to sell - advice requested

    1. About £2500 seems like a fair price to me. 2. PM me!
  31. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Been coiling up around 359 for a while, looks ready to break out now. How high can it run if it convincingly goes through 360?
  32. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    If you make a reservation now, you'll receive your Model 3 by end of next year. Does this mean he really expects to sell at least 400k Model 3 by the end of 2018?
  33. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Interesting to hear about different motor architectures and efficiency maps! Would love to know about this in more detail.
  34. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Lots of tiny pops. Like walking on bubble-wrap.
  35. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Sorry this was meant for the EU thread. On the european deliveries wiki, the numbers I posted are the delta between Jan+Feb and Apr+Jun, although some countires have not reported yet for June.
  36. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    While Model X numbers are up by 200, Model S seems down by 400. What effect does this have on margins? IIRC MS margins are still better than MX (although at a lower ASP)
  37. Gerasimental

    Poll: $100 Billion - Elon or Green Fund?

    If you're going to post a poll, how about you don't litter the thread with subjective arguments for one of the answers but let the people you are asking make their own minds up? I voted for the UN because it will at the same time distribute wealth to those who will suffer the most from climate...
  38. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Maybe, but it won't get old for a while :cool:
  39. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    ding ding ding ATH!
  40. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    How often does the afterage household buy a new roof though? Every 10 years? Probably less... So that's $0.72bn per year.
  41. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Fair enough, I had forgotten about that quote about part orders. Still, that just tells me that those are the absolute maximum numbers they are hoping to build, plus probably 20%-30% contingency.
  42. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    I confess that my numbers are pulled out of thin air - with the only boundary conditions being that 1 car is built in the last week of july and 5000 in the last week of December. We know that these rumps start in fits and bursts rather than on a smooth curve, which is why I thought making up...
  43. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    How are you getting to 50k deliveries in 2017? I've had a quick guess at weekly production rates based on Elon's ambition to readh 5000/wk by the end of this year and am only getting less than 25000 cumulative production. I've allowed for some minor slow-downs for re-tooling or things going...
  44. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Stopped listening a while ago because it was pretty dull and I needed to get on with other things. Would be very grateful for a very quick bullet point summary if anyone is able.
  45. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Presumably means FlexRay, which will be industry standard pretty soon
  46. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Are we there yet? .... Are we there yet? .... Are we there yet? ... How much longer? .... Are we there yet?
  47. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Trump inviting entire Senate to the white house for a briefing on North Korea, with the Sec of State, Sec of Defence, Director of National Intelligence, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Last time this happened was before the invasion of Iraq. Would like to hear form @IntlProfessor...
  48. Gerasimental

    Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

    Theresa May has just called a snap general election to be held on 8th June. This will most certainly result in an even stronger mandate for the current Conservative government, but may cause jitters and uncertainty for a while in Europe.
  49. Gerasimental

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    I love crossing from below 300 to above, when all 5 digits flash up green :)