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To Upgrade or Not to Upgrade?
- Thread starter bakeland
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Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
It’s really about congress, and given their inability to do anything whatsoever, including changing existing laws, I don’t see a super high risk of this at the moment. Neither party is getting to 60 votes in the senate in the next few years.
trade-in. that's the context of the OP.
will feel silly for paying $5k to trade for essentially the same car, and then take an additional -$5k hit (or whatever value the used car market sets) because the substantially newer Model Y is available. sounds like a -$10k transaction in total value. so to me, that's a pretty silly way to induce a bunch of lost value.
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
Better getting some TLSA and watch the value going up, than a new Tesla and watching its value going down....
It depends on many factors that really run against the EV rebate being rescinded. If I was putting down money I would predict the 7,500 remains until its sunset date in 2032.
- First, Trump has to win. That's not necessary a given even though he's going against Biden who is politically weaker, especially after the special counsel report that said he's a forgetful old man along with his press conference which showed him to be a forgetful old man. The economy/inflation are key factors too. Anyhow, winning the presidency will be tough for Trump considering his legal battles (he's got an indictment case before the Supreme Court) and other bagged. Here's the Trump/Biden polls.
- Second, the House must remain GOP and actually get a bit more red for the next Congress to pass a bill eliminating the EV rebate. Right now, with the very thin margins the GOP has in the House, there likely is no way such a bill passes. It might be shocking to learn but there are GOP House members who will not vote for such a bill and, obviously, nearly all of the House Democrats will not as well. Such a vote will be very tight (even if the GOP's majority grows).
- Third, the Senate must be GOP. It is just too early to figure out if the Senate will go one way or another. See election polls here. However,
- Fourth, legislative priorities in 2025. I very much doubt killing Inflation Reduction Act or even amending it will be a priority for a new hypothetical GOP Congress. Implicit in Trump's campaign talk is a realization that the Inflation Reduction Act cannot be legislatively killed. At best, Trump has argued he will ignore the law as much as he can (through regulatory powers). See this article for more on that.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
Don't let the actions of people either online or in person allow you to sway your perception of your own position. What I've learned over the years is that, typically, the biggest "ballers" also tend to be the most exposed to risk. The slightest hiccup and the house of cards come tumbling down. Lots of people playing "the spread" and #'s games while being leveraged to the hilt to impress people they don't know.
The best thing you can do in life is to label this as noise and not put too much weight in it. Don't finance depreciating assets and don't spend more than you make. Invest wisely (hint: ignore this guy below) and play the long game. Get out of debt, stay out of debt and stay the course. Do that and you'll have plenty of money down the road but, more importantly, you'll live a stress-free life when others are riding the whims of a few tenths of a percentage points the impacts their entire existence.
Might as well go to Vegas and drop the same money on red. Your TSLA play isn't a given even though so many people on this forum think that it is. Single stocks, in general, are FAR too risky yet too many people who don't have the available liquidity see it as a sound play while ignoring the q-factor for risk.
while I generally agree, the difference between putting cash into a new vehicle purchase is knowing with nearly 100% certainty that vehicle will be worth less, immediately, and will continue to depreciate. there is no reason to believe that your purchase will bring back the same, or more, value at any point in the future.
with TSLA stock, you have no substantive idea of it's value in the future. could be less, but could also be more.
if the idea is pay $5k more for a brand new edition of essentially the same car, OR
keep the exact same car, and buy $5k TSLA stock instead. (and these are the only choices in this hypothetical)
I'd choose the stock.
why? because that will result in a max downside of $5k. I wager the new MY will be more like a $10k loss, because of the effects after the new MY refresh is published.
with TSLA stock, you have no substantive idea of it's value in the future. could be less, but could also be more.
if the idea is pay $5k more for a brand new edition of essentially the same car, OR
keep the exact same car, and buy $5k TSLA stock instead. (and these are the only choices in this hypothetical)
I'd choose the stock.
why? because that will result in a max downside of $5k. I wager the new MY will be more like a $10k loss, because of the effects after the new MY refresh is published.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
Your comparison assumes you must buy something for the $5k and there is no 3rd option. It also assumes I'm of the mindset that one should spend $5k on another new vehicle if they don't want to invest in TSLA.
Both are a poor choice if your financial stance is the most important factor. I, for one, wouldn't do either one given the figures we're discussing in this hypothetical. If that's your focus then option #3 is the best choice; keep the current car to avoid another $5k spend as well as realizing the single largest amount of depreciation that vehicle you already own will see.
That's my opinion though. Many others are less sensitive to the several thousands we're talking about. In my experience (most, not all) of these tend to be people who finance or they would care more about five grand.
its an alternate plan if someone just absolutely has to do something with their $5k. I'd rather buy a hot tub for my investment property and attract more guests with an amenity than place a single stock bet.
but even a single stock bet is better than spending $5k more to buy the same car again.
but even a single stock bet is better than spending $5k more to buy the same car again.
OP, I don't want to talk about return of investment. Let's stick to spending money on cars. I just think you are wasting your money wrong. Instead of taking double hits on the trade in and new car off the lot depreciation for a pretty much same car. How about save that $7.6K. Set the money aside. Repeat it a few times every time you plan to waste $$. Then use that money saved to upgrade to a Model X. Or something else, like a Porsche.
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Your waste of money is another's carpe diem.
I'd rather have the six enjoyable years my family and I have had with my Model 3, so I don't categorize the money spent as "wasted".
I spent that money so we could enjoy the heck out of it.
About to continue enjoying that investment and also get a Model Y as a second Tesla - also not wasting money, just doubling the enjoyment.
I'd rather have the six enjoyable years my family and I have had with my Model 3, so I don't categorize the money spent as "wasted".
I spent that money so we could enjoy the heck out of it.
About to continue enjoying that investment and also get a Model Y as a second Tesla - also not wasting money, just doubling the enjoyment.
E90alex
Active Member
Did you even read the thread? No one is saying buying a car in general is wasting money, especially if you keep it for years and use it to its full potential.
But to pay $7600 to “upgrade” to the same car that’s 1 year newer would be considered wasting money by a lot of people.
Did you trade in your model 3 every year over the last 6 years or you kept driving it because it still works and didn’t make sense to get a new one just for the sake of a new one?
Sure did, did you even read the post above mine? That post directly and specifically talked about it being a waste of money, so yes, someone is talking specifically about wasting money. But I wasn't directly accusing someone which is why I wasn't replying.
But as you mentioned it, you are without proof saying that "a lot of people" think that's a waste, which again proves my point that it depends on the person. Don't force your ideas of waste onto others.
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gx9901
Active Member
Is a 2024 Model Y much of an upgrade from a 2023 in terms of hardware? If not, I'd say just keep the 2023. I assume it's been trouble free for 17k miles, so chances are it's a pretty well built example of Model Y. Why take a chance on a new car that might have some issues over the car that's proven over 17k miles so far if there's no significant difference in terms of hardware?
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