Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[pz1975]

I've been buying mostly Jan16 LEAPS and some Mar15 calls the last 2 days. This 'feels' like the bottom. The NASDAQ has now had its 10% correction that everyone has been waiting for and the Ebola effect is way overblown. This isn't a zombie movie where the disease suddenly explodes. It can only be transmitted by contact with bodily fluids (not airborne) so even if it has a small outbreak, it should be able to be easily contained in a first-world country. It is much less contagious than SARS. I can't comment on the oil price effect though.

 

[FluxCap]

I picked up some Mar'15 235 calls yesterday and Jan'16 220 calls today. I think the market is over-reacting in general and under-reacting to Tesla news re the D, China, and storage.

Robert, I know you have a lot to do but given your experience as a former Fed economist, I'm particularly curious about your specific thoughts on current macroeconomic forces as they relate to TSLA trading. Specifically, do you have thoughts on the price of oil having outsized effect on bond and equity markets, as well as Fed's ability to move rates in the environment we find ourselves in with no appetite for fiscal stimulus? Are you concerned about deflation and/or Fed's inability to move the needle in a liquidity trap scenario? Are you concerned about equity/asset valuations outside TSLA?

Feel free to answer over in my macro thread if you wish, or here.

 

[uselesslogin]

Wow TSLA in the green and so is every single other stock of mine except AAPL. For me it is just a weird day but weird in a good way.

 

[Johan]

Nice to be in the green. Put my money where my mouth is and bought both Mar15 and Jan16 OTM calls, various strikes earliervthis week, and as we dipped below $221 (the magic unicorn number) this morning some slighly OTM Nov14s.

Also noteded for a second we were just below $218 which I had decided from some amateur charting and fairy dusting was my lower limit number for this dip. Now onwards to $340 right?

 

[pz1975]

I like the run-up to close and the large amount of LEAPS I have been buying the last 2 days are green, but I still expect a dip tomorrow at opening or through the day. I bought some weekly puts before close as a hedge. I plan to sell them if we dip to $225 tomorrow.

 

[jimmyjohn]

Holy cow; not sure my health can take this.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Breathe...!


....and buy

 

[justdoit]

Our fellow momo stock NFLX down 15% AH after reporting earnings.

 

[AlMc]

Our fellow momo stock NFLX down 15% AH after reporting earnings.

Yes, and this makes me a little nervous about our Q3. EM, we need strong guidance!

 

[jimmyjohn]

Hoping GOOG responds...

 

[Curt Renz]

Our fellow momo stock NFLX down 15% AH after reporting earnings.

That seems to have affected TSLA in after hours trading, despite the fact that the two companies' products and prices are totally unrelated.

 

[AlMc]

I am an educated man, but can someone smarter than I please explain today's TSLA price action? The macros said the market should be down, and it was, until it wasn't?? Curt? Flux?

 

[jimmyjohn]

Assuming HBO doesn't make cars, we should okay. :wink:

 

[mibaro2]

Wow! 300 point reversal for the dow in the afternoon. Was down 450, finished down 150.

None of the news `experts' can explain it yet.


I feel like I ran a marathon today.

 

[SteveG3]

Short clip with some spot on comments about Elon, Tesla, and the media from Jay Leno,

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000320121&__source=yahoo%7cheadline%7cquote%7cvideo%7c&par=yahoo

 

[Curt Renz]

I am an educated man, but can someone smarter than I please explain today's TSLA price action? The macros said the market should be down, and it was, until it wasn't?? Curt? Flux?

Indeed the macroeconomic news would have negatively affected the market. The reaction to that may have appeared rational. The wild card however was the new Texas Ebola case. Whatever reaction to that in the stock market would have been emotional. It is days greatly affected by emotions that can serve to washout those investors prone to panic. That can lead to important market bottoms, especially in Octobers. Those who are more level headed appear to have picked up bargains in the afternoon. Buy low; sell high.

In the case of TSLA specifically, the selling in recent days appeared more emotional than rational, as those investors who were expecting something else at the D event showed their disappointment by selling. The truly great news at the D event may now be sinking in with those who can see the affect it will eventually have on consumer and investor perceptions.

 

[pz1975]

I'm hoping that surge of all markets towards close wasn't just a dead cat bounce. I can't find anything else to shift sentiment so quickly.

 

[FANGO]

Short clip with some spot on comments about Elon, Tesla, and the media from Jay Leno,

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000320121&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

What a dumb headline though. "Success is jeered?" Come on. Also, it bothers me when people characterize Tesla as an individual rather than a company. Tesla is not a "he," it's around ten thousand "(s)hes" now. It wasn't even a "he" when it started, it was at 5 "hes."

That said, Leno is one of the car personalities who truly understands and accepts new technology readily, which is a nice departure from so many "purists" who somehow think inferior products are more "pure" - despite, of course, being impure by definition, given that they pollute so much.

 

[AlMc]

Indeed the macroeconomic news would have negatively affected the market. The reaction to that may have appeared rational. The wild card however was the new Texas Ebola case. Whatever reaction to that in the stock market would have been emotional. It is days greatly affected by emotions that can serve to washout those investors prone to panic. That can lead to important market bottoms, especially in Octobers. Those who are more level headed appear to have picked up bargains in the afternoon. Buy low; sell high.

In the case of TSLA specifically, the selling in recent days appeared more emotional than rational, as those investors who were expecting something else at the D event showed their disappointment by selling. The truly great news at the D event may now be sinking in with those who can see the affect it will eventually have on consumer and investor perceptions.

I'm hoping that surge of all markets towards close wasn't just a dead cat bounce. I can't find anything else to shift sentiment so quickly.

Thanks Curt. pz1975: That is my problem as well. Curt may well be correct. The action on Netflix should give us all a little cause for concern as we head to TM Q3ER. While it is not time to panic it is time to be cautious, IMO. Netflix met guidance for EPS and Gross income, it did not get as many new customers as the market would have liked to see....so 25% drop AH??

 

[FluxCap]

I am an educated man, but can someone smarter than I please explain today's TSLA price action? The macros said the market should be down, and it was, until it wasn't?? Curt? Flux?

Curt has been writing about the market a lot longer than me and his explanations are sound. However, as you can see on CNBC right now, no one is completely sure what is going on. I have my theories, but that's all they are. One of the theories I feel strongest about is that we are back to levels of true market volatility (propensity to swing up or down) not seen in a long time.

Today, I used this theory and the fear in the market to trade like a true momo trader for the first time in a long time, riding the waves down then up to close out the day better than where I started, mostly flipping DIA puts by buying them ATM and selling on the way down. I am short the Dow and Wal-Mart into tomorrow morning via DIA and WMT puts, because I believe that despite the rally into the close, there is fear and weakness that will drive things down again tomorrow. I expect more wild swings and I do not expect flat trading. Market-wide strangles may be an interesting play here.

As for TSLA, I agree with Curt that we were significantly oversold after the "D and A" event because the market had been primed to expect a completely false Model 3 reveal despite facts to the contrary, and though we followed the NASDAQ much of today, we showed much more resilience than some other stocks in the index due to the underlying strength of Tesla Motors as a company.

So from a trading perspective, I was not a TSLA buyer but I held my core shares untouched. I was a market put buyer riding the wave down, cashing out intraday to recoup losses in some 340 TSLA LEAPs that were underwater, which I sold. And I am slightly short the market overnight.

I remain positive that these gyrations, brought about at least in part by the forces of oil production, are even further evidence that a larger transition to a solar-electric economy would provide the security, stability, economic prosperity and environmental rescue of a magnitude we so desperately need.

I will continue to work to make that more of a reality every day with my advocacy of Tesla Motors, solar and distributed energy storage, and I'd encourage others to do the same.