Yeah, I tried this strategy once a while ago and it didn't go well that one time but I didn't stick with it. I started again last week and am happy with my results so far.
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Yeah, I tried this strategy once a while ago and it didn't go well that one time but I didn't stick with it. I started again last week and am happy with my results so far.
found a story in transport evolved about first owner which is a lady
Fifty Shades of Lust? First UK Tesla Model S Owner is E L James
Fifty Shades of Lust? First UK Tesla Model S Owner is E L James
Chickenlittle
Banned
Good choice to get ladies involved. Could have guessed color of car for her. Congrats
As far as your backtesting goes, you are making the mistake of backtesting
There is a lot of validity in posing a hypothesis and then testing it with all available data. Often all the available data is in the past. Example is a weather forecast. Weather forecast can be quite accurate for the short range.
Weather forecast is helped with understanding of physics and fluid dynamics. Such equivalent is not available when trying to predict market movements.
It may be more meaningful to test any hypothesis on the whole of market rather than on a single market participant. There is much more data available for the market and all the market forces are better modeled on a market rather than single market participants.
If one wishes to test a hypothesis (trading strategy) on a market participant, the likelihood of improved results is increased to the extent that tested instrument resembles the market as a whole. Tesla in no way resembles the market. It is an outlier. There is very little data on TSLA. Any backtesting on TSLA is highly unlikely to provide valid predictions.
Here is an interesting article on VXX and XIV backtesting. VXX is one of the first and most widely held exchange traded products (ETP). VIX is a measure of S&P500 volatility. VXX is VIX future. XIV is VXX reverse, their correlation is -99.6%. The author claims: A viable investment strategy may be to replace some or all of ones stock holdings with a long XIV or short VXX position. This should result in better risk adjusted returns at the portfolio level.
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Thanks guys. I need TSLA to finish under $210 today and let it run Monday to sell new calls
Did you write some calls this morning at the spike? I wrote mine that expire this Friday on Friday before the weekend. I decided on $220s at $1.20. Already down to in value to $0.39! Looks like I could have been a lot more aggressive...I'm considering buying them back as that would lock in a large % of the profit.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I always buy them back when they reach my target. Right after selling the calls, I place the order to buy them back at the targeted limit. I give up higher wins in exchange for higher-probability wins, on the theory that my expected winnings will be higher in the long run. It also lets me do multiple trades per week, instead of waiting for expiration (obviously, this works only when the stock is stagnating/trending downwards.)
I don't often venture out of the investor forum but I found this nice rumor about the Model X seats
Musk's hint to 2nd row seats in Model X
(post #4)
i think this will help add an additional 10k+ Model X reservations at least to the tally before X goes into production if it's true...the extra spike in reservations and press of the Model X innovation will help drive more TSLA stock interest I feel and help make the Shorts doubt their belief that Tesla is a one trick pony.
i am super excited to see if this rumor on these seats get confirmed
Musk's hint to 2nd row seats in Model X
(post #4)
i think this will help add an additional 10k+ Model X reservations at least to the tally before X goes into production if it's true...the extra spike in reservations and press of the Model X innovation will help drive more TSLA stock interest I feel and help make the Shorts doubt their belief that Tesla is a one trick pony.
i am super excited to see if this rumor on these seats get confirmed
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
He was also short netflix from 100 to 250, then went long at 250. At 303, it fell back to 60 and he rode that down. To his credit, he doubled down I think and it's now 400 dollars. I don't think he's that great at speculative stock shorting.
Shorting is a tough sport, so I stay away from it. The only time I would short a stock is if I am running a long/short zero beta portfolio, or in a bear market; although I have never tried the latter either.
pz1975
Active Member
Or TWTR prior to lock-up expiration ( I was going buy some puts), but it had already dropped so much leading up to it that I (and I think you) didn't end up doing that.
Or TWTR prior to lock-up expiration ( I was going buy some puts), but it had already dropped so much leading up to it that I (and I think you) didn't end up doing that.
Yes, that was my strategy all along. I was going to buy some puts about 1 month prior to lockup, but it had already dropped so much that I wasn't sure anymore. Of course, it turned out that it still would have been a great play nonetheless. Even buying puts the day before lockup was a great bet.
But buying puts is not the same as shorting a stock though, since with the latter you have potential for unlimited losses.
No, I didn't sell any this Monday since the spike was too short-lived and I missed out. I did sell some weekly 210's just right now, and will be looking to watch them expire worthless tomorrow.
I recommend not copying this strategy though, since my exit strategies are unique (as is everyone's situation).
Based on the fact my solar stocks are having a good day as well I think we are in the "what stocks do I buy when oil prices look to be on the rise?" mode:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/12/markets-oil-idUKL4N0OT1B020140612
I agree with not recommending that, but for education sake, what are your thoughts? Is this move pattern based, thinking Elon's tweet is buy the rumor, sell the news, or perhaps today's move is only related to rising oil prices and will reduce tomorrow? (something else or some combination of course)
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