on topic: this thread itself
Thanks for biting. I waited a bit for you to collect some likes. It may surprise you that there's a like from me!
It's a win-win, you see, because if you get your likes for the disliking me, then I will get fewer dislikes.
Now in all seriousness, in reply to you, I have the opportunity to make a few points relevant to this thread.
Skip to number 12. right now if short on time...the rest just had to be stated, in case you want to understand.
1. I hated posting my ideas in this thread, but it was the de-facto 'go-to' 'catch all'-thread for investors' discussions.
2. I also hate hiding behind a wombat persona. If it is laboured, tedious and not funny for you, it is much worse for me!
3. You may have noticed that I only use the wombat thing when I am saying something knowingly outrageous. I speak thru my normal persona when I want to be taken (more) seriously. And..
4. I have a very good reason for using this wombat device. It is a differentiator between expertise and non-expertise.
5. The majority of posters here are experts (business, financial, tech, etc).
6. I am not an expert. But I am an investor. I think many guest readers are not experts. Spare a thought for them.
7. A reference to Sleepyhead came up today in the Forum (DaveT Megapost thread). He passed himself off as an expert a few years ago, then drew many followers to another (mainly) solar forum "The Contrarian Investor".
8. Sleepyhead's "expertise" over-excited many investors to buy GTAT which later collapsed into a black hole, losing the unsophisticated investors, who put too much weight on Sleepyheads commentary, a pile of money, judging by the wailing in that forum in the aftermath.
9. I would feel awful if anybody became over-excited and made a losing bet on my outrageous fantasy scenario.
10. Hence the clumsy differentiator....I hate it too. I'm not burning to say anything that whacky again, so I don't need to use it.
11. If some decide to comment in the "What if ..." thread I started, well they already know it's whacky so I can use my normal persona in discussion...a huge relief to me, I can assure you.
12. With the above explanations out of the way, sorry but they had to be stated, you give me an opportunity to make a small observation (this is why I gave you a like!) that may be of interest to a few readers, and I admit probably very few.
13. Your post quoted above is instructive because it tells me you are not one of them... dismissive of my ridiculousness.
14 It tells me that you are 100% certain that no mini-powerall plug and play type product will come with M3.
15 I can tell you that I am almost 100% certain that you are right!
16 But here's the thing. If the unlikely occurs, an investor might want to pause to weigh up the consequences.
17 The consequences of this outlier scenario are so enormous (IMHO) that it should be weighted accordingly.
18. You seem sure you are right. I am almost sure you are right...which leads on to how I think (sorry but I need to say it)...
19. I find it instructive to imagine starting always from the extremes, the absurdities, to see if there might be any truth to discover when the decks have been swept clear of "received wisdom" if you like. If my idea survives that genesis, and it excites me sufficiently, I will try to knock it down with knowledge dug from within my own little universe. If that hasn't killed it, I will solicit the opinion of those more expert than myself. In that spirit I posted comments.
20. There are many off topic discussions in the short term thread, much of it very interesting but too ephemeral to survive in a thread of its own, catalysed by prolific posters, such as Julian who is very valuable in agreements and disagreements.
21. My outlier of an idea is perhaps on topic (I think you enjoy 100% certainty so its off topic to you). Not to worry, it is ephemeral too, so it will be gone by the weekend. But because its consequences are so massively out of proportion to its likelihood, some readers may want to run it thru their minds... just in case. I won't comment on that subject in this thread again (only in my What if... thread. Anyone want to bite?).
Final salute: Try to imagine on April 01, a human (that you can't see but is somewhere in SW England) who will almost certainly be doubled up, bowing (Japanese style, when the deepest humility must shown) to your greater knowledge and wisdom when it comes to trying to understand the so far unpublicised parts of the secret master plan as it relates to TSLA.
Peace to you Tenable and to all the givers of your likes (I'm one of them).