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chickensevil
Active Member
Me too!.............Cost was minimal. I am standing 'pat' on my stock/Leap positions through at least the reveal. I am not afraid to change strategies if we get a 5-10% move up prior to the reveal.
I still am sitting on more 'TSLA cash' than usual. That could certainly be a big mistake, but analysis paralysis has set in on what to do with that money.
Disclaimer: 90% of my TSLA money is in a retirement account so I do not worry about tax consequences.
This strength today, if nothing else, you might make off on IV and build up to Thursday alone (assuming you sell off any of those lotto tickets). Even carrying through the event, if we can get the price up around 240 by thursday, those calls will likely be sitting ok to avoid too much IV crush after the event assuming we propel upward.
The really great thing about today's price action is I don't have to worry about anyone saying that there are gaps to fill as it looks to me like everything is filled in at the moment, so if we just slowly go up to 240 by Thursday, everything will be perfect for the event to be set up as well as can be expected.
I reserve the right to sell off if things get too hot again, but assuming that we stop today in the 233-234 range, do another 2-3 dollars tomorrow, another 2-3 dollars on Wed, I will be happy to let Thursday play out as it wants. Normally I would be cautious up until the Thursday close. But we might see an early rise based on the turnout of people at the stores ahead of the event.
Keep in mind. Shareholders and the Market are not going to care about the actual product. They are going to care how the overall consumer cares about the product and the associated number of deposits made. It can be the worst looking car in the world, with 0 features, and if Tesla says that they had 100k deposits on this terrible looking car all because it has 200+ miles of range, then the market will be overly happy with that. It's the deposits to watch... nothing else. Which is why lines outside of stores can have an impact here during the day on Thursday.
***My trading right now is as follows:
I have all of 8% of my "play money" in options right now. The rest is just waiting to see what happens after Thursday. I have been burned too many times from events and especially the associated IV crush (assuming that we even go positive... that is even worse of an affect to get the direction wrong AND have IV crush, you might as well write everything off as a total loss) to be willing to risk it. If we go positive after the event then I will dump into options more heavily.
To avoid a total loss of movement, I do have around 70% of that "play money" as actual shares. Since shares don't suffer from an IV crush, and we got the dip I was expecting to happen. I feel comfortable in sticking this capital in shares to have some positive affect from this event.
This leaves me with ~20% cash to push into options on the 1st (best case) up to around the 4th in the event that it doesn't look like it is going to stick until we get the Q1 numbers.
I'll consider dumping out of shares to leverage as additional options depending on the ferocity of the price action.
Of course, the SP rockets up after I make my comment. Still, the call options are expensive and if you are holding past the reveal, there is a big risk. I've been on both sides, winning big and losing big through this kind of event. If you bought weekly's this morning at the dip, you made big money. I'm looking for the right exit point for the ones I hold from last week which are up nicely. I'm just worried about macro shocks and misunderstandings that can push the price down hard.
Reiterating my thoughts: We are very near the 200 day SMA, the long term median. We are not (yet) bid up in anticipation of the event. A large run-up would add to the likelihood of a sell-the-news, but I am not seeing it. We have climbed a TON in the last few weeks but that was a recovery from a big dip that was itself just following the market. The great thing about this is that sentiment feels bullish. The price action is "falling up" and has been for a few weeks. In short, we could go up on Friday because we are in a bullish period so there is a bullish bias. All things being equal, a decent 200 mile car with expected deposit numbers will be viewed as positive for TSLA.
And, if you buy the "very fast, very deep cup-with-handle" theory the handle is done I guess. (I don't but I won't be mad if it precedes a run up).
And, if you buy the "very fast, very deep cup-with-handle" theory the handle is done I guess. (I don't but I won't be mad if it precedes a run up).
Stock is performing nominally today. All good. I think it is a good idea to make informed decisions about the meaning of forthcoming event. Not easy to appreciate the meaning of a car that undercuts the price of a technology that has been an unassailable monopoly for a hundred years. Shame to be one of the ones dumbfounded on the wrong side of the trade.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Well said, Chicken. News stories of lines around the block for reservations, coupled with any comments from Elon/Tesla regarding deposits, might make this reveal different from the previous ones. By all accounts deliveries have been robust, so possibly a boost due to upside surprise a few days after the reveal....
Hey folks. I haven't been posting these past months, just been reading, but I want to chime in my thoughts on this much anticipated event that we've been waiting for for so long.
I'm holding core shares, May, September and Jan 17 options. For this event I am not going to sell prior (except perhaps half of my May's and letting the rest ride). The reason is because there's so many things lined up as a potential positive for Tesla (TSLA) after the event and between 1st of April and mid May. Basically April is going to be another month full of anticipation, with high IV going into the Q1 earnings in May, so even when we have the IV crush right after the event, I'm hopeful it's going to start to build up quickly again.
For the Q1 earnings some of the following things we have to look forward to are:
* Model 3 reservation tally and how the world has been taken by surprise and subsequent analyst upgrades and perhaps some crazy new PT (hello Jonas).
* Potential free cash flow.
* Model X reviews and perhaps crash test ratings that are going to hit it out of the park. We also know MX deliveries has picked up the pace so deliveries might be a positive surprise.
These are just a few of the positive things coming to mind and that's not even factoring in the event and M3. I don't think Tesla is going to drop the ball on this one but shock and awe the world.
So all in all, I see little downside risk the coming months with huge upside potential. Not to mention the amount of shorts that might get trapped. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk and Co. are going to make some lemonade going forward, the fruit is low hanging and very ripe.
Good luck everyone!
I'm holding core shares, May, September and Jan 17 options. For this event I am not going to sell prior (except perhaps half of my May's and letting the rest ride). The reason is because there's so many things lined up as a potential positive for Tesla (TSLA) after the event and between 1st of April and mid May. Basically April is going to be another month full of anticipation, with high IV going into the Q1 earnings in May, so even when we have the IV crush right after the event, I'm hopeful it's going to start to build up quickly again.
For the Q1 earnings some of the following things we have to look forward to are:
* Model 3 reservation tally and how the world has been taken by surprise and subsequent analyst upgrades and perhaps some crazy new PT (hello Jonas).
* Potential free cash flow.
* Model X reviews and perhaps crash test ratings that are going to hit it out of the park. We also know MX deliveries has picked up the pace so deliveries might be a positive surprise.
These are just a few of the positive things coming to mind and that's not even factoring in the event and M3. I don't think Tesla is going to drop the ball on this one but shock and awe the world.
So all in all, I see little downside risk the coming months with huge upside potential. Not to mention the amount of shorts that might get trapped. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk and Co. are going to make some lemonade going forward, the fruit is low hanging and very ripe.
Good luck everyone!
I like the Blockbuster analogy. Except that BB did mess up by passing the chance to acquire Netflix when it was offered.
Blockbuster's CEO once passed up a chance to buy Netflix for only $50 million
In a similar circumstance, I'd like to think NOW is that chance for ICE manufacturers to take up on the offer to shift their focus to vehicle electrification. Don't think it's yet too late.
Sure, in hindsight they should have bought them, but even that decision wasn't clear cut. 50M was a lot of money for an unproven company doing something that BB probably felt they could do too.
jhm
Well-Known Member
You seem to think this makes a difference. Why should it matter who the owner is or what country they live in. Thus US has been exporting used vehicles to Mexico and other countries for quite some time. If your dealer has to export your trade-in vehicle, you get a lower trade in value. This in turn makes it more expensive to buy or lease your new car. So demand for new ICE cars falls off just as resale values on used ICE cars fall off. So new ICE cars come down in price or quantity sold.
And none of this makes much of a difference in how many miles are driven on an existing ICE. As the value of a used ICE car falls, the critical cost of use becomes the cost of fuel, maintenance, insurance and taxes. Both fuel and maintenance depend utilization, how many miles are driven per year. As more EVs come on to the market with lower fueling and maintenance costs, this works against economics of owning an old ICE car with high per mile cost to operate. So utilization of older ICE cars declines. If EVs are heavily used in ride sharing fleets, this will hasten the decline of old ICE utilization and send these cars more quickly to the junk yard. Regardless, any family with both new EV with low per mile cost and an older ICE car with high per mile cost will prefer to utilize the EV more highly. Any commercial or ride sharing fleet will have this same preference to minimize operating costs. So ultimately the older ICE car will only be useful as cheap back up vehicle for low utilization. It does not matter what country the car is registered in. Minimizing operating cost will lead to displacing gasoline with cheaper electricity, even in Africa where solar power is leap frogging traditional power grids.
off topic or on topic, you decide
I couldn't agree more...
and around this subject I have created a new thread.."What if M3 came with a Powerwall?
Warning: it is not for everyone, but a few may be interested.
Enjoy
I couldn't agree more...
and around this subject I have created a new thread.."What if M3 came with a Powerwall?
Warning: it is not for everyone, but a few may be interested.
Enjoy
How?
If you price a well appointed EV considerably above the market for a similar ICE car, customers have no incentive to pay the premium. They can just reserve and buy a Model 3 instead. For example the GM Bolt is half the value for money compared with a GM Sonic. I'm sure some people will lease them while waiting for their Model 3 order to mature but it would make no sense at all to buy one. When the leases Expire, GM will get back most of their Bolt production off lease with negligible resale value - but if you buy one or worse still take a balloon-ended vehicle loan on one, you end up with a Bolt with negligible resale value or worse still negative equity on a car loan balloon payment and then its just to pay up money for nothing under threat of a repossession.
If you price a well appointed EV under the price of similar ICE vehicles so as to compete head to head with the Model 3, customers have no remaining incentive to chose an ICE vehicle at all (and plenty of incentive not to). If you need to sell 9 million ICE vehicles per year to cover your overheads with barely a 5% net profit to spare - obsoleting ICE vehicles in the eyes of your customer base to chase a hard to quantify share of an impossible to quantify EV market is a bit of a tricky thing to do.
Many people share fluffy assumptions about all this, but nobody can answer this question. How??
By creating and investing heavily into a new brand-name that is financially independent on the old one and free to eat the lunch of the old one.
E and I teams who are allowed and encouraged to compete with each other and everybody else.
I do not want to be rude, but your posts have made me start to hate this thread. I do not find the wombat related commentary amusing, nor do I find your unfounded fantasies about the future useful. You asked that forum members refrain from blocking you.. I'm trying. I also appreciate you FINALLY starting a new thread about this ridiculousness. Unless you have something to add that is based on real information, please refrain from filling the forum with your posts. If you insist on continuing, thats your prerogative. But I will block you.
Wombat is also an acronym for Waste Of Money, Brain And Time.
I don't want to be rude and find wombat's posts interesting as a background, but too much background leaves no space for more foreground things.
I don't want to be rude and find wombat's posts interesting as a background, but too much background leaves no space for more foreground things.
Picked up 20 june 16 $245 at $12.05
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BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
So if we assume that in a few days the majority of ICE vehicles will be obsolete but the majority of drivers won't be able to buy a BEV for several years... What will they do? Pay lots of money in repairs as their car starts to fall apart? Take a bus? Who will step in to fill the void? What number of reservations will cause upheaval of our financial system? This reminds me of Y2K.
I doubt any number of reservations would cause such an upheaval. As Julian has pointed out at length, the ability of traditional auto to move in a significant manner is likely self defeating. Incredible numbers likely at best will spur additional funding to escalate timetables, Those (outside Tesla) most likely to move more rapidly are your well funded electrically focused startups such as Faraday, Apple Project Titan, Etc. In a magical world where we pull down 1mm reservations (or something massive) I think we would see an acceleration in the infrastructure required for the paradigm shift. That is likely the best case scenario. My .02.
Disclaimer: All opinion.
How? By simply fully committing to it. BMW, GM, Nissan sort of dipped their toes down to half their asses ( a half-assed job?).
Look, I fully realize I am oversimplifying it as to how this can be done and minds far superior to my own can figure this out. My main point is that the winds of vehicle electrification is consolidating. Continuing to ignore it will be at their peril.
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