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I am strongly to blame. Yet I strongly believe how Model 3 will alter the narrative of the entire auto industry and the perceptions of auto consumers in general in a couple of days time is hugely significant to short term price movements and it is also hugely counter-intuitive due to the insane quantity of words pushed on public and shareholder perceptions for decades by the auto and fuel industries. In what other world could the obligation to pay three to five times the cost of electrical mileage at the pump be cast as a convenient benefit of a car that can't be fueled at home and can't even move without it - or a car being rated "reliable" despite the fact it needs to go in for regular servicing stop it self destructing from inherent and endemic unsolved design faults or else the warranty is void!? The advantage in understanding the significance of the Model 3 in advance is very trade-able in the very short term probably worth slogging through a few words both written and read in order to profit from it.
Hint: The level of surprise is not priced in, the stock will go up. Probably there will a de-risking dip on the 30th or 31st for an optimum entry.
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larmor
Active Member
With so much unknown about m3, why not compare to leaf, volt, and prius, the likely pre ordering market base? If the leaf, volt, and prius customer base is the target market, then knowing their behavior well help understand m3 market and sorry ten uncertainty.
Wasn't MS compared multiple times to leaf in the past....
Wasn't MS compared multiple times to leaf in the past....
I think many journalists will, but this isn't who tesla is targeting for their customer base. Elon doesn't compare the 3 to these cars because he is trying to spur the auto industry to BEV. The best way to do that is to take on their highest profit vehicles (large luxury) and their highest volume and profit vehicles (small luxury).
I would hope that the narrative is comparing the 3 to the A4, 335, C-class, etc
jhm
Well-Known Member
I had to lie answering this poll. If we weren't a two Tesla family, I'd definitely be reserving and buying a Model 3. It just did not feel right to respond that I would not be buying a Model 3 or that I was unsure.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I agree. This is precog work in advance of short term price movements. Anticipating how the narrative can change is quite valuable.
Ulmo
Active Member
Looks like there's some resistance from dropping below ~226.5 every day since Wednesday March 23, the first day it was that low since the peak after the rise up out of the 140's (February 10 10AM Pacific low @$135). Wed, Thu, Mon, & Tue (today) are trading days (Friday was holiday).
During the fall on Wednesday, it stopped at 226.25, went up to 228's, before continuing the fall (that eventually got to a week low of 214.48 in premarket Thursday). It raised Thursday past 226, then couldn't drop below 227. Monday, it fell to a low of 225. It then flew up to 234.81 (did anyone make money?) before coming down again.
While it's punched through 226.5 a bunch of times, it acts like it meets some resistance, like trying to get out of the surface tension of water.
During the fall on Wednesday, it stopped at 226.25, went up to 228's, before continuing the fall (that eventually got to a week low of 214.48 in premarket Thursday). It raised Thursday past 226, then couldn't drop below 227. Monday, it fell to a low of 225. It then flew up to 234.81 (did anyone make money?) before coming down again.
While it's punched through 226.5 a bunch of times, it acts like it meets some resistance, like trying to get out of the surface tension of water.
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Ulmo
Active Member
Odd. I told the truth. I WILL reserve (I will), and I am NOT sure if I will buy (I'm not sure). Depends mostly on my financial situation. If I can't afford it, I won't. If I can afford something even better, I won't. I'll only get it if I can only afford it, I need it, AND if it's good enough.
Like right now I am driving a junker. I need a car. But I want to do more with my money than get a Tesla X-Ploodl. If I had played TSLA correctly since I got in March 14, I could be at $330K balance right now, which is not enough to afford a fully loaded X + my other plans, but it is enough for a Model 3. OTOH if I only keep at my current of $220K, I might just get another less junky junker, or drive this piece of junk until I'm stranded someplace in the mountains and have to spend half a day walking into civilization, then buy another junker. To say I'm displeased is putting it mildly, since I thought I'd be on my 8th used EV by now (since back when California mandated EV's in the 1980s).
In other words, I WANT a Tesla, but I can't HAVE a Tesla, unless I give up on home and energy for myself.
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Thumper
Active Member
Elon is so dedicated that he is personally producing one more Ex this quarter!
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You know that if the SP increases by a few dollars between now and April 15, subject to IV of course, that these will be green. In other words no need to hold to expiration and hope for $280 to make money.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Ulmo
Active Member
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Falls, UBS: Model 3 Launch Could be Negative Catalyst
"Tesla TSLA stock falls after UBS report", which is true, since it went down from yesterday's close of 230.26 to a low of 226.0511 today (now 225.442 as I edit this), but it's still just following a trend started yesterday at 9:38AM (Pacific Time) when it had a day-peak of 234.81. I show the UBS news at 6:42AM today (Pacific). So, it's also an exaggeration, unless the UBS report came out earlier than we saw it.
"Tesla TSLA stock falls after UBS report", which is true, since it went down from yesterday's close of 230.26 to a low of 226.0511 today (now 225.442 as I edit this), but it's still just following a trend started yesterday at 9:38AM (Pacific Time) when it had a day-peak of 234.81. I show the UBS news at 6:42AM today (Pacific). So, it's also an exaggeration, unless the UBS report came out earlier than we saw it.
mmd
Active Member
This poll shows up in headline news for TSLA only. Not for F, GM or TM. Yeah, the sample is totally representative.
Whoever designs such methods of polling?There are only the TSLA longs and shorts voting there, not even the likely M3 buyers. And their responses are very predictable.
+ @jhm - who raised the same point.
Long term this is essentially correct.
Short term it does not matter who Tesla is targeting. Tesla cannot control and does not seek to control who from the broad market places a reservation.
Model S pulled in a *lot* of upgraders. 15% of the early Model S (as at approximately May 2013) was a Prius conquest and 25% were Toyota conquests generally. The first guy sitting in line in Australia for 48 hours outside a Tesla store stated he currently owns a low-value Toyota (Camry or something similar).
I think it is inevitably the case that the largest percentage of early conquests of the Model 3 will be compliance EVs and Hybrids. These have been bought and often leased by a self identified demographic that is willing to pay a premium (often a significant premium) for fuel economy and / or a car that epitomizes a conscientious objection to emissions. There is absolutely no point trying to sell a Bolt or Mercedes B Class Electric or a BMW i3 against the Model 3 - all $30-$40K vehicles that are totally hobbled for style, driver interface innovation, luxury and performance, range (arguably excepting the Bolt), and of course lack of meaningful highway charging.
Model 3 will represent a must-have alternative to this demographic representing in many instances an instant doubling of value for money when set against the value drivers known to appeal to this group - and limited only by absolute affordability which I suspect will roll back a 100% conquest by not quite 50%, maybe not even 25% and trimmed not much further than that by concerns over home charging convenience for apartment dwellers, unfamiliarity with the Tesla brand and the concept of reservations and waiting - and yet waiting while saving for a deeply exciting personal vehicle upgrade is going to be an effective counterbalance. Basically I think the Model 3 will stick a fork in the Prius market on an unimaginable scale before so called "Targeted" Mercedes, BMW and Audi conquests get a look in - and those will be significant too.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
LOL. In other news: "TSLA stock could go up, or down, tomorrow"
Can't win with this guy (UBS analyst):
"The analyst believes that the upcoming Model 3 reveal could potentially be a negative catalyst due to high expectations and new competitors. On the other hand, if Model 3 was “too exciting,” it might have a negative impact on the sales of the already available but much more expensive Model S."
Well I've 415 shares with an average purchase price of $164, I could take profits now, but I'm going to sit on them. If I wait another 4 months, I don't have to pay tax on the capital gains - that's guiding me somewhat too.
I was hoping the stock would keep rising prior to III launch, but it's god bogged-down the last week
I was hoping the stock would keep rising prior to III launch, but it's god bogged-down the last week
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