Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

I agree with everybody posting about exercising prudent caution, but scenario that you are outlining seem to be plausible to me. I do not want to bet the farm on it coming true, but it deserves that some funds be used on this bet.

Just as a reminder, in addition to the very high interest rate, institutional ownership went up by 10M shares in Q4 2014 (from 69 to 79M). For those not familiar with this, see this post and the following discussion for more details on significance of this.

Unfortunately, we do not know the results of the Q1 2015 yet - they are due on May 15 - but I doubt that institutional holders were not continuing to load up during the relatively flat Q1. This in combination with high short interest spells real trouble for those holding TSLA short. They are in real and imminent danger.

I do not believe that Tesla will be talking about financial details of their new business during the 30th of April event, as they will most likely concentrate on explaining the product lines (home, commercial, utility grid storage). This will free the necessary time to talk about financial side of the business during the ER call. This, perhaps, will give shorts an opportunity to double down during the lull after the event that I think will be dedicated mostly to the technical side of the stationary storage business.

However, given the fact that two analysts already are throwing numbers that need to be added to the PT to account fro this new stationary storage business, it would be highly unlikely to not have questions about the financials and stationary storage business model during the ER call. This will allow analysts to put out updated models after the ER.

Just to make sure, there is no certainty to the sequence of events outlined above, but they are plausible and can result in explosive stock move post ER. This deserves a carefully and prudently sized bet imo.

Vladimir, your point about deploying cash is important. For my part I deployed pretty much the last of my cash while the prices was under $200. I share that not to brag, but to add some context for my present view because my position can't help but influence my outlook. So for someone who was already quite over weight on Tesla at $200 buying more at $230 is not so attracitve. But I am holding every last share until we reach a new ATH! OTOH if I were presently underweight in Tesla, I would likely be buying more a little bit at a time to catch any pullbacks. Long-term I still see sub $260 as better than fair to buy.

 

[Muskol]

Short clip of Kimbal commenting on the announcement. Not much info, but at one point he says it'll be 'available any day'. Not sure if that means the battery storage will be available for purchase immediately or some other context.

Elon's brother reveals Tesla's next target: Your home - Video - Investing

 

[aznt1217]

You will know when you see a ton of happy posts on this thread and someone posts the picture of Elon holding a champagne bottle.

I miss that pic. I think we'll just see evolutionary share price.. For now

 

[chickensevil]

Yes, he's talking about battery suppliers.

Just to add to this, assuming he is not directly poking at Panasonic (which would strike me as odd since the company has only ever had nice things to say about Panasonic), it would be the suppliers that Panasonic uses to make their batteries. I believe there are 2 companies that directly supply Panasonic, one making the Cathodes and one making the Annodes. If these suppliers are not willing to see the future then that puts Panasonic in a bind, which in turn, puts Tesla in a bind. Panasonic may not be willing to call out their suppliers, but Tesla has no direct stake in those 2nd degree companies and would feel less remorse or aversion to call them out for not being willing to put their skin in the game.

Thankfully the gigafactory should solve some of this problem since Tesla and Panasonic are putting forth most of the stakeholder in the factory and Tesla wasn't ever expecting much money from the lower level suppliers. But until that happens, we still need more cells coming from Japan. And even after it happens, we will likely *still* need more cells from Japan.

 

[ScepticMatt]

Kurt Kelty, Director of Battery Tehnology at Tesla Motors, says that there is trouble with Japanese suppliers.

Perhaps stationary storage was always a part of the vision at Tesla, but it's development was prioritized recently in order to give a a collateral market for Tesla's and Panasonic's batteries, and therefore convince Panasonic to ramp up production..

that's an article that was discussed here over a month ago.

I've come to expect that Inside EVs mostly warms up weeks or months old "news", which is why I don't visit that site anymore.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 404

 

[jhm]

You too, the high level of short interest is way too good for me to resist, especially with CC set only five days away. Plus you already know I don't believe in jumping in and out of this stock so I won't be selling. The $260 price you mentioned seems fair for now. But if we get another beat on July 3rd announcements, watch out! To me, the CC is pretty darn important, by now Elon should have a good handle on production and deliveries for 2nd Q, if he's bullish during CC, again, watch out..

As a bull, I'm glad to hear some of us have partially sold out their positions, had all of us agreed to hold, I would be a bit concern. Your sold positions, whether it be 1/3, 2/3s or more.. indicates to me there's new blood entering to support the current price level. F/X slowly rose favoring the euro today to above $1.10, which hasn't happened in awhile. Combine that with oil prices above $58 gives me a glimmer of hope this bad boy isn't giving up ground anytime soon.

Actually, I have not been selling anything. After we get above neutral prices I start to think about laying off call options. Above the third quartile, I'll start writing covered calls. Otherwise I intend to hold my shares for a very long time.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I've moved 14 posts that were getting into the weeds of the tax status of stationary storage over to Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread - Page 28

 

[FluxCap]

Today begins with a bunch of economic indicators and data from global and US markets. Going to be in for some choppy seas I think before all eyes turn to TSLA for tonights main event after the closing bell. Keep an eye on the indices today.

Opening bell, April 30 - Business Insider

 

[CHGolferJim]

Actually, I have not been selling anything. After we get above neutral prices I start to think about laying off call options. Above the third quartile, I'll start writing covered calls. Otherwise I intend to hold my shares for a very long time.

Enjoy your posts. Is there a particular thread that you follow and contribute to that lays out your approach to investing at various points on the current price vs fair value and ATH, etc.? Thanks!

 

[Causalien]

So. Nothing to do today but twiddle our thumbs.

 

[FluxCap]

So. Nothing to do today but twiddle our thumbs.

They are trying so hard to create a good price to cover their shorts this morning during amateur hour. Not going to be able to hold it down long, I think. Tempted to pick up some more...

 

[mmccord]

I'm liking the movement so far this morning. Deploying a bit more cash, buying back some of my calls I sold yesterday, etc.

If we see mid 220's today I'm backing the truck up...

 

[Bgarret]

So. Nothing to do today but twiddle our thumbs.

And buy the dip....

 

[v12 to 12v]

They are trying so hard to create a good price to cover their shorts this morning during amateur hour. Not going to be able to hold it down long, I think. Tempted to pick up some more...

I just did.

 

[Larken]

I just did.

+ 1

 

[Causalien]

Nothing to do so I just bought. Let's see if my broker coattails me.

 

[jhm]

Enjoy your posts. Is there a particular thread that you follow and contribute to that lays out your approach to investing at various points on the current price vs fair value and ATH, etc.? Thanks!

I mostly post my Blind Faith Price Targets in this thread and try to title the update posts so they're easily identified. The basic idea is that awhile back Musk put forward a $700B market cap target for 2025. My BFPT approach works backwards from that target to recent prices to see how much the market is dicounting Musk's vision. So over the last 12 months there is a distribution of implied discounts. So we can determine present and future price points at different quantiles of the implied discount distribution. So $260 would be the present price if the market were at the median implied discount. Generally, I expect the distribution of implied discounts to be somewhat stable over time. Thus, I can tell when the discount is getting unsustainably high (in the first quartile I want to accumulate) and unsustainable low (in the fourth quartile I want to lighten my exposure). So right now we are I the second quartile, so I am positioned to enjoy the ride up to the third quartile.

I have also been developing this approach for SolarCity and may post that in the SolarCity thread.

Thanks for your interest.

 

[Gtoffo]

I mostly post my Blind Faith Price Targets in this thread and try to title the update posts so they're easily identified. The basic idea is that awhile back Musk put forward a $700B market cap target for 2025. My BFPT approach works backwards from that target to recent prices to see how much the market is dicounting Musk's vision. So over the last 12 months there is a distribution of implied discounts. So we can determine present and future price points at different quantiles of the implied discount distribution. So $260 would be the present price if the market were at the median implied discount. Generally, I expect the distribution of implied discounts to be somewhat stable over time. Thus, I can tell when the discount is getting unsustainably high (in the first quartile I want to accumulate) and unsustainable low (in the fourth quartile I want to lighten my exposure). So right now we are I the second quartile, so I am positioned to enjoy the ride up to the third quartile.

I have also been developing this approach for SolarCity and may post that in the SolarCity thread.

Thanks for your interest.

We should really create a tool that tracks this daily....

I've bet 1% on a > than 3% pop by tomorrow at current prices. Just in case...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

We should really create a tool that tracks this daily....

I've bet 1% on a > than 3% pop by tomorrow at current prices. Just in case...

I second that!! Stickied thread?

Also, this sell ahead of time gives me more confidence from a contrarian view point. I think most people are expecting a sell off so if the event is any good we shouldn't get a sell on the news.

 

[FluxCap]

From the Tesla official Twitter account just now:

Link here, looks like a livestream will happen!

- - - Updated - - -

And from our own Bonnie via Twitter:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/45161-April-30th-Event-Discussion-and-Prediction-Thread?p=992619&viewfull=1#post992619