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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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jhm
Well-Known Member
I gotta say I share this caution. At this point from a valuation point of view I think the stationary business is only worth a 10 to 15 percent gain, and we've seen that come on in the last two weeks. As we learn more about what Tesla is actually offering and can deliver, it may be worth more. So the gains in the last month have been about half due to stationary and half due to improvement in sentiment. We are not yet upto neutral sentiment, so we still have some sweetening. But we are close enough to neutral that I no longer want to accumulate for longterm investing. It is more of a momentum play for tradars who are much more nimble than I.
So to be clear, I am very bullish on the company longterm, but it is not priced at the deep discount I am content to wait for.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Was the gain from stationary storage or the crushing beat in deliveries? Another way to look at the latest "gain" isn't really a gain, we're barely re-taking grounds lost from dubious "demand" fears. This is going to be a last minute decision for me, but I may not buy any puts going into this reveal. But if I do, it'll be only ONE single put, and no mas. All calls are still intact and none will be sold for awhile. 3-5% will be set aside in case of a pullback. But really, at this point, who cares which direction it'll go. Tesla is back with a vengeance! And X is yet to be discussed.
well said. This week, I sold off about 2/3 of the trading shares I'd accumulated from $207 down to $184. that said, there's other news flow to come in the next few months, but like yourself, I only buy trading shares when I think the stock is more considerably below fair value (i.e. I start at 25% below fair value), and I don't wait for the shares to reach full fair value to sell.
jhm
Well-Known Member
That's a good point about the delivery beat. I don't think I can do attribution with any precision, but I would view the delivery beat as improving sentiment from abysmally bearish to merely bearish. So we certainly have much more ground to gain on sentiment. Note that within my BFPT methodology neutral/median sentiment would be at the $260 price. So from $233 to $260 is still a lot of upside. So this is what marks the price points for me, but I really have no clue how prices will gyrate in short run. There are certainly plenty of reasons for sentiment to continue to sweeten.
Best of luck!
i agree, but was surprised to see that Trip ranks #155 out of 3606 whereas Lovallo is #3580: https://www.tipranks.com/experts/trip-chowdhry
They must not be penalizing for wildly outrageous announcement predictions. He expected a Model 3 reveal at D event and metal air batteries for the 6.2 software call.
I was looking at the chart for a few of the prior events like the last two ER and the reveal the D event. Runups were followed by about a 1/2 sized drop (ie. up 30 down 15, for simplicity sake). I think the runup this week will allow for the options market longer-term to handle a half-down reaction (whether once or combined with the ER next week).
Stationary storage is interesting - because nobody knows anything about it. It is a money saver in states where Solar City can get a hold of sizable incentive to pay for the systems (I have been reading about the California S.G.I.P.) - but what about states with low to no incentives at all? Do other "hot" states like AZ, NM and Nevada offer similar incentives to CA? If not, then is CA and NY the primary target markets along with Hawaii to some extent?
Stationary storage is interesting - because nobody knows anything about it. It is a money saver in states where Solar City can get a hold of sizable incentive to pay for the systems (I have been reading about the California S.G.I.P.) - but what about states with low to no incentives at all? Do other "hot" states like AZ, NM and Nevada offer similar incentives to CA? If not, then is CA and NY the primary target markets along with Hawaii to some extent?
InTheShadows
Active Member
I don't think other incentives are needed. Off grid and battery backup solar energy systems qualify for the 30% federal tax credit. Install it with a solar system and you should be good to go.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Since Tesla has been on a nice run, wouldn't we expect some big time window dressing on behalf of portfolio managers? I think it will be a major factor in pushing the stock higher than most level headed people think it deserves to be in the next little while.
I agree to share the caution...but I think there is a chance (maybe 20%?) that we could be upon another massive short squeeze to pump the stock to 400+ before settling back down to 300-350ish...
Consider that we are at a 13 month high for short interest...consider this event tomorrow night adding new Energy Funds into the equation for taking stakes in TSLA stock combined with updated valuation models from analysts and investing institutions combined with possible great news a week later in the ER...I think there is a ~20% chance that these things happen and results in another historic short squeeze over short period of time (month or two) to blow past ATH....
Think about it this way...who is going to sell the shorts all the shares they need to buy back if the shorts all want to cover their positions in the same relatively small window of time during/after the above events? Combine that with new Energy Fund buyers coming into play and we may have another perfect storm coming our way...
The tug-of-war for April 30 announcement tends to be between those who bet on the "price already figured in and sell on the news" theory and those who expect the announcement to be above and beyond price expectations. I think AIMc has a good take on playing both sides, and I will do the same. I have a good number of June calls that are up over 100% at present (I swore off shorter plays but couldn't help myself this time). I will likely go into the announcement with enough calls sold to be "playing with house money" during the announcement, so that I can benefit from potential upside but still walk away a winner if it's a shrug and decrease in price. The potential upside could be substantial, though. With the number of shorts still high and with the shorts already hurting from our run up by more than 40 or 50 points, a surprisingly good April 30 announcement could lead to a powerful short squeeze. We could be close to the short-squeeze tipping point. I'm not depending upon it happening, but if it does happen I will leave some mid-term money on the table, just in case.
Edit: I wrote this opinion before TSLAopt's post came up. Looks like we're viewing the situation in a similar fashion.
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doggusfluffy
Closed
How will you know there is a squeeze on? Do the shorts start selling off tomorrow, causing a dip before close? Higher volume? Is there an indicator of some sort?
You will know when you see a ton of happy posts on this thread and someone posts the picture of Elon holding a champagne bottle.
sundaymorning
Active Member
You too, the high level of short interest is way too good for me to resist, especially with CC set only five days away. Plus you already know I don't believe in jumping in and out of this stock so I won't be selling. The $260 price you mentioned seems fair for now. But if we get another beat on July 3rd announcements, watch out! To me, the CC is pretty darn important, by now Elon should have a good handle on production and deliveries for 2nd Q, if he's bullish during CC, again, watch out..
As a bull, I'm glad to hear some of us have partially sold out their positions, had all of us agreed to hold, I would be a bit concern. Your sold positions, whether it be 1/3, 2/3s or more.. indicates to me there's new blood entering to support the current price level. F/X slowly rose favoring the euro today to above $1.10, which hasn't happened in awhile. Combine that with oil prices above $58 gives me a glimmer of hope this bad boy isn't giving up ground anytime soon.
Sunday, you bring up an important point about owning shares right now. It's not just about the April 30 announcement. The Q1 ER follows shortly thereafter, then there's the Q2 ER, Model X Reveal, Q3 ER, and Q4 ER. I strongly suppose one of those events will trigger a significant short-squeeze. Owning shares right now makes sense because there's no guarantee which event will send TSLA values flying, but one of these events is likely to do so. Why gamble on missing the event that lights the rocket's fuse? On the other hand, short-term calls for events such as this are lottery tickets, and we know how lottery tickets usually turn out.
I agree with everybody posting about exercising prudent caution, but scenario that you are outlining seem to be plausible to me. I do not want to bet the farm on it coming true, but it deserves that some funds be used on this bet.
Just as a reminder, in addition to the very high interest rate, institutional ownership went up by 10M shares in Q4 2014 (from 69 to 79M). For those not familiar with this, see this post and the following discussion for more details on significance of this.
Unfortunately, we do not know the results of the Q1 2015 yet - they are due on May 15 - but I doubt that institutional holders were not continuing to load up during the relatively flat Q1. This in combination with high short interest spells real trouble for those holding TSLA short. They are in real and imminent danger.
I do not believe that Tesla will be talking about financial details of their new business during the 30th of April event, as they will most likely concentrate on explaining the product lines (home, commercial, utility grid storage). This will free the necessary time to talk about financial side of the business during the ER call. This, perhaps, will give shorts an opportunity to double down during the lull after the event that I think will be dedicated mostly to the technical side of the stationary storage business.
However, given the fact that two analysts already are throwing numbers that need to be added to the PT to account fro this new stationary storage business, it would be highly unlikely to not have questions about the financials and stationary storage business model during the ER call. This will allow analysts to put out updated models after the ER.
Just to make sure, there is no certainty to the sequence of events outlined above, but they are plausible and can result in explosive stock move post ER. This deserves a carefully and prudently sized bet imo.
So in this scenario, best to unload tomorrow before the April 30 event, then reload after a drop induced by short sellers and the ride the short squeeze when the ER details the great financials of the battery storage program? I think this is likely the correct analysis and the only question is whether I have the guts to carry it out.
Just to clarify, I was talking about the release of the institutional ownership information, which is due 45 days after the corresponding quarter end, not the Q1 ER.
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