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nvm found it, edmunds' long term test car. looks like the 12V battery had issues, probably one of the dreaded old 12V battery issues
Stuck on the Freeway - 2013 Tesla Model S Long-Term Road Test
Julian did you predict Q3 drop? Q1 and Q2 I remember you being spot on.
No I did not predict Q3 drop.
Nevertheless this one I think will pay for that error in spades.
GAAP Lease Accounting Does Not Apply To Where Tesla Has Been Shipping Cars In Q4
Easily adding $100million extra GAAP revenue and a reversal to analyst expectation of GAAP loss to huge GAAP beat.
No I did not predict Q3 drop.
Nevertheless this one I think will pay for that error in spades.
GAAP Lease Accounting Does Not Apply To Where Tesla Has Been Shipping Cars In Q4
Easily adding $100million extra GAAP revenue and a reversal to analyst expectation of GAAP loss to huge GAAP beat.
Gtoffo
Member
Me too. I'm buying (despite the fact I've been "all set" for earnings since before the new year). But the strange drop around 11.45 made me wonder if there had been a piece of news that I had missed. Apparently just mass hysteria.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Selling on the ER rumors? People got burnt last time, so maybe it's profit taking.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Last night I put in a market order to sell some shares just to cash in enough to make a loss for me on TSLA impossible. But then thought more about it and cancelled the sell order. Long story short, I'm expecting the stock to pop after earnings, so decided to stay all in. Hope I'm right.
I don't see a $0.35 eps GAAP profit likely. I'd give it a 1.5% likelihood.
Tesla deferred $146m in revenue (lease accounting) in Q2, and $171m in Q3.
Sure they shipped more to Europe but still they still shipped a ton to California and I don't see much indication that percentage of people signing up for Tesla-backed loans in California was much lower than Q3.
In my model, I kept the deferred revenue the same for Q4 as Q3, at about $170m since I figure they probably kept the same pace of deliveries to California and other U.S. States but just increased pace of deliveries to Europe. The fraction of deferred revenue compared to the total revenue is smaller for Q4 since there is at least 20% greater revenue, but the actual amount of deferred revenue might be the same.
But even if we reduce the deferred revenue to $130m (which I don't think is likely but we'll do it for exercise sake), and we say they had $740m total revenue... when I add these numbers into my spreadsheet, I'm showing a GAAP profit of $0.03 eps.
Chickenlittle
Banned
i too am hoping for good earnings call. dont be discouraged, all tesla report days are like this. i believe the largest drop on day of earinings was with the large short squeeze report.
Here's another short selling sucker today getting in...wonder how big his Fund's short position is...more fuel to the fire of the next good catalyst though, whether its this ER or not we shall find out in a few hours
Doug Kass: Im Shorting Tesla - MoneyBeat - WSJ
Doug Kass: Im Shorting Tesla - MoneyBeat - WSJ
I know we’ve got a lot of bullish energy on this thread right now, so I don’t want to ruin the party but I’ll share my earnings expectations.
First though, a quick note on how Elon and Tesla roll. Here at TMC sometimes we get caught up in what Tesla “could” do and all the possibilities. It happens leading up to most major announcements (think of last year’s 5-part trilogy). But while Tesla “could” do anything and everything, the reality is that Tesla is somewhat limited by the challenges of execution and the real world.
Second, Elon likes to space out his announcements. This is shown last year with the 5-part trilogy. And more recently in his Europe trip where he said he wasn’t going to share all the announcements at the first city since he wouldn’t have anything left for the second and third stops. Elon is a smart guy and knows not to spill all of his beans at once. He likes to keep a couple cards in his sleeve. So, for Q4 ER while it’s “possible” that Tesla could guide for 40k cars in 2014, I think it’s highly unlikely. I give it a 2-5% likelihood. I think Tesla guiding for 35-37.5k cars is about 65%. And Tesla guiding for 33k or less is 30%.
Regarding the battery gigafactory, while it’s “possible” that Tesla can spill all the beans and share a master plan of the gigafactory that blows our socks off. The reality is probably Elon will share some details about the gigafactory but maybe not as much as most of us are expecting. Maybe he’ll do that at another event/time.
China demand? I don’t think he’ll talk much about it since they haven’t even started shipping. It makes sense to save China news to after they’ve started shipping and they can get better visibility on demand and response.
Gross margin guidance? Now this is an area where I think Elon can guide confidently in 2014. I give it a 80% likelihood that Tesla will guide to reach at least 30% gross margin by the end of the year.
Q1 guidance? I’m expecting them to guide 7000 cars but comfortably over deliver on those numbers during Q1 ER.
Some realistic possibilities:
- new production line - I read in an analyst report that they’re expecting Tesla might share more info on a new production line that might already be up and running. If true, this could be very good news as it shows Tesla is ramping production. A TMC member posted here that he saw Tesla factory’s employee parking lot full at 10:30pm on a weekday. (Articles/megaposts by DaveT - Page 21)
- battery factory partners announced and funding hinted at - while I don’t think they’ll share full details on the gigafactory, I think they could share the basic outline of who the partners are, which state it’ll be in, and also the general framework of funding.
Overall, I see it as a very good Q4 ER, but I’m still not sure it’ll meet/beat shareholder expectations which are very high at the moment.
My guesstimate is that by end of day Friday:
30% chance we end below $190 but above $175
30% chance we end above $210 but below $230
25% chance we end somewhere $190-210
15% chance we end below $175 or above $230
First though, a quick note on how Elon and Tesla roll. Here at TMC sometimes we get caught up in what Tesla “could” do and all the possibilities. It happens leading up to most major announcements (think of last year’s 5-part trilogy). But while Tesla “could” do anything and everything, the reality is that Tesla is somewhat limited by the challenges of execution and the real world.
Second, Elon likes to space out his announcements. This is shown last year with the 5-part trilogy. And more recently in his Europe trip where he said he wasn’t going to share all the announcements at the first city since he wouldn’t have anything left for the second and third stops. Elon is a smart guy and knows not to spill all of his beans at once. He likes to keep a couple cards in his sleeve. So, for Q4 ER while it’s “possible” that Tesla could guide for 40k cars in 2014, I think it’s highly unlikely. I give it a 2-5% likelihood. I think Tesla guiding for 35-37.5k cars is about 65%. And Tesla guiding for 33k or less is 30%.
Regarding the battery gigafactory, while it’s “possible” that Tesla can spill all the beans and share a master plan of the gigafactory that blows our socks off. The reality is probably Elon will share some details about the gigafactory but maybe not as much as most of us are expecting. Maybe he’ll do that at another event/time.
China demand? I don’t think he’ll talk much about it since they haven’t even started shipping. It makes sense to save China news to after they’ve started shipping and they can get better visibility on demand and response.
Gross margin guidance? Now this is an area where I think Elon can guide confidently in 2014. I give it a 80% likelihood that Tesla will guide to reach at least 30% gross margin by the end of the year.
Q1 guidance? I’m expecting them to guide 7000 cars but comfortably over deliver on those numbers during Q1 ER.
Some realistic possibilities:
- new production line - I read in an analyst report that they’re expecting Tesla might share more info on a new production line that might already be up and running. If true, this could be very good news as it shows Tesla is ramping production. A TMC member posted here that he saw Tesla factory’s employee parking lot full at 10:30pm on a weekday. (Articles/megaposts by DaveT - Page 21)
- battery factory partners announced and funding hinted at - while I don’t think they’ll share full details on the gigafactory, I think they could share the basic outline of who the partners are, which state it’ll be in, and also the general framework of funding.
Overall, I see it as a very good Q4 ER, but I’m still not sure it’ll meet/beat shareholder expectations which are very high at the moment.
My guesstimate is that by end of day Friday:
30% chance we end below $190 but above $175
30% chance we end above $210 but below $230
25% chance we end somewhere $190-210
15% chance we end below $175 or above $230
Thanks for the post and for all of the other ones as well. I like that you are level headed, and I can easily see your conservative scenario happening.
I am extremely optimistic, because:
1. They screwed up Q3 and will not do it again.
2. They seem to have all of the supplier constraints resolved and can build 1,000 cars/week in a very short period of time if it isn't happening already.
"Growth, Growth, Growth" - I think that Jerome told the whole story, but that no one really listened. The time is now to show the world that Tesla is for real and not only here to stay, but that it is accelerating production a lot faster than anyone predicted. All of the pieces are in place if the battery constraint is resolved (I am taking this as a 99% done deal, but I could be way off in my assumption).
If the battery constraint is resolved, then there is absolutely no reason why Tesla should produce anything under 45k cars in 2014. If that is the case then they will have to guide for 40k+.
The biggest risk for this Q4 ER is that there was a big delay in battery supply, but signs point that there isn't any delay and should be on-line any day now.
Although I have reduced my TSLA exposure and increased my solar exposure, I still think TSLA is a double or close to a double this year no matter how the stock reacts at ER today. Things are only getting better for this high growth company now that fires are no longer a major concern for investors and customers. Good luck to all today.
Sleepyhead, I seem to remember Elon stating multiple times various targets that imply to me April to July for battery supply to have a major improvement (believe I've heard him say all of these: Q2, spring, mid-year).
I think it is quite unlikely that they are there now.
that said, as a possible catalyst, I'd say it's 95% likely this major improvement will happen midyear or better (based on what's needed for the outcome and the visibility Elon would have of this), whereas I think the analysts are basically not factoring this in in their official models (average projected 2014 volume 30-32K, basically where Tesla is currently).
I think it is quite unlikely that they are there now.
that said, as a possible catalyst, I'd say it's 95% likely this major improvement will happen midyear or better (based on what's needed for the outcome and the visibility Elon would have of this), whereas I think the analysts are basically not factoring this in in their official models (average projected 2014 volume 30-32K, basically where Tesla is currently).
Your probabilities differ a small amount to what the Friday options expiration are pricing in, see the below link/picture:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/probabilities/WQIw-1gby0FHf8DBmTgtoQ.png
interesting- looks like a peak probability of $185-190, but skewed bullish in total probability (area under curve )
Citizen-T
Active Member
I think that TSLA is a loaded spring here. Whatever happens, either we are going to take a serious hit or we are going to be flying high. I can't really see the market doing a "meh" and keeping the stock at current levels.
I've positioned myself such that I'll benefit greatly if we fall ~15% by the end of the month or if we pop another ~10% by the end of the month. I'll get most beat up if we finish the month somewhere between $190 and $210. ::fingers crossed::
I've positioned myself such that I'll benefit greatly if we fall ~15% by the end of the month or if we pop another ~10% by the end of the month. I'll get most beat up if we finish the month somewhere between $190 and $210. ::fingers crossed::
chickensevil
Active Member
I don't see a $0.35 eps GAAP profit likely. I'd give it a 1.5% likelihood.
Tesla deferred $146m in revenue (lease accounting) in Q2, and $171m in Q3.
Sure they shipped more to Europe but still they still shipped a ton to California and I don't see much indication that percentage of people signing up for Tesla-backed loans in California was much lower than Q3.
In my model, I kept the deferred revenue the same for Q4 as Q3, at about $170m since I figure they probably kept the same pace of deliveries to California and other U.S. States but just increased pace of deliveries to Europe. The fraction of deferred revenue compared to the total revenue is smaller for Q4 since there is at least 20% greater revenue, but the actual amount of deferred revenue might be the same.
But even if we reduce the deferred revenue to $130m (which I don't think is likely but we'll do it for exercise sake), and we say they had $740m total revenue... when I add these numbers into my spreadsheet, I'm showing a GAAP profit of $0.03 eps.
I will be happy with any kind of a GAAP profit, because it will finally put the nail in the short coffin about them "playing with the finances" and will officially be a profitable company. That *should* send a lot of the sub 100$ shorts running (amazing how many of those are still out there).
I want Sleepy's scenario but suspect that Elon will not give all the good news today and will have another trilogy. I expect lots of volatility with us landing at $200-205 Monday. I am confident long term Tesla/TSLA but many of the momos have had decent ERs and negative ir neutral stock movement. I purchased my first protect put today. Hope it goes to zero
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