Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[justthateasy]

With just about 10 minutes to go before the market closes and Tesla announces earnings, today's price movement feels exactly like it did nearly a year ago just before Q1 2013 earnings. After the market closed and Tesla released Q1 results, TSLA was up 10% AH and into the next day.

Honestly, I'm nervous because I'm still snake bit from Q3. I'm definitely keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[FANGO]

Hi DaveT

The Whisper Number for Tesla Q4 is supposed to be a GAAP Loss of 18 cents, Analysts estimates, a GAAP loss of 17 Cents.

Whisper Number: How Will Tesla Investors React to Earnings?

Apparently at least 2900 units of the 6900 went to Europe as opposed to 1000 of the 5500 on Q3, so unless the uptake of lease accounting became a much larger % of the total US deliveries we ought to be looking at something like the difference between 18% and 42% deliveries to Europe definitely excluded from lease accounting treatment. That ought to come to 24% of deliveries that are not denied recognition of nearly half of their value under GAAP, classing it instead as a liability. In round figures a 10% uplift in GAAP revenues that is all profits (the non application of liability). Something in the order of $70 Million extra GAAP profit. I think that sounds about right.

Q3 121.9 million shares x $0.32 GAAP loss = $39 Million GAAP loss.

This $70 Million looks on the right scale to reverse a GAAP loss, and with extra GM across the board go further than that.

I am calling a $0.25 (25 cent GAAP profit) vs analyst estimates of a -$0.17 (17 cent GAAP loss) and a whisper number of -$18 (18 cent GAAP loss).

If so this is incredibly huge and significant.

Please double check.

Julian, I like your insights and I like that you are an eternal optimist, as I tend to be. However, I think GAAP double digits is unrealistic. I think the EU thing is significant, but not significant enough to swing EPS by like half a dollar in a favorable direction. Remember, the lease accounting only affects like 25% of US cars anyway, so it's not going to be a change of 1900 cars worth, but more like 450 cars worth. I'm expecting a very tiny GAAP profit or very tiny GAAP loss. But I didn't do math for this, so who knows.

edit: I do think ZEV income will be significant though.

 

[kenliles]

If 1000 of 5000 went to Europe in Q3 and 2900 of 6900 went to Europe in Q4, then we've got 4500 to US in Q3 and 4000 to US in Q4. This does reduce the Model S revenue deferred due to lease accounting, thus increasing GAAP revenue and thereby increasing GAAP profit. But I'm still getting single digit GAAP eps numbers with a $740m non-GAAP revenue number when I input them.

Even that wold be a major beat-
thanks to all for running these numbers down; will be fun to compare when they come out

 

[DaveT]

Even that wold be a major beat-
thanks to all for running these numbers down; will be fun to compare when they come out

I'm heading into earnings conservatively with short-term options. But I've got my extended hours order form open and ready if we've got a blowout shareholder letter released and if I can get in at the right time.

- - - Updated - - -

It's out:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2330621879x0x727013/9885dd26-2e82-4052-b171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf

 

[kenliles]

I'm heading into earnings conservatively with short-term options. But I've got my extended hours order form open and ready if we've got a blowout shareholder letter released and if I can get in at the right time.

- - - Updated - - -

It's out:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13 Shareholder Letter.pdf

good idea
whoa!

 

[carrerascott]

$200-204 right now after market

 

[ggr]

Back over $200 in the first minute of after hours. I have a feeling this is going to be big.

 

[FredTMC]

Guidance is 35k in 2014

 

[hoang51]

Looks like TSLA is stable around $200. It is bouncing up and down a lot though.

I'm heading into earnings conservatively with short-term options. But I've got my extended hours order form open and ready if we've got a blowout shareholder letter released and if I can get in at the right time.

- - - Updated - - -

It's out:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13 Shareholder Letter.pdf

 

[772]

Non-GAAP revenue $761m
Non-GAAP EPS $0.33
GAAP revenue $615m
GAAP EPS ($0.13)
FY 14 guidance 35,000 cars

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla is a hoot. The most fun I have had. Hoorah. Can't wait for earnings.

 

[FredTMC]

$207 now. Hopefully call goes well too

 

[deonb]

What to do with $40m in free cash flow... Mmm. 133 new SuperChargers?

 

[glhs272]

Free Data connectivity for 4 years. This makes me smile

 

[TD1]

BOOOM goes the dynamite

 

[772]

I like this:

The potential in Europe and Asia is even more significant. Towards the end of the year, we expect sales in those regions combined to be almost twice that of North America

 

[sleepyhead]

Guidance is 35k in 2014

They said "over 35k" vehicles. So 35k is the floor.

 

[FluxCap]

"Very shortly, we will be ready to share more information about the Tesla Gigafactory. This will allow us to achieve a
major reduction in the cost of our battery packs and accelerate the pace of battery innovation. Working in partnership
with our suppliers, we plan to integrate precursor material, cell, module and pack production into one facility. With this
facility, we feel highly confident of being able to create a compelling and affordable electric car in approximately three
years. This will also allow us to address the solar power industry’s need for a massive volume of stationary battery
packs.
Looking forward to a very exciting 2014! -Elon Musk - Deepak Ahuja"

ENERGY STORAGE. I HAS IT IN MY GARAGE.

 

[justthateasy]

Great numbers and TSLA is back over 200 and now hitting 210.

I just saw 7400 produced cars in Q1 and it looks like Tesla will be GAAP positive in less than a quarter.

 

[Johan]

I like this:

And this:

Already, the Beijing store is our largest and most active retail location in the world.