Proof of Tesla's plan for battery swapping

[callmesam]

Right, the service folks have plenty of spare time and space to devote to swapping batteries, it's not like they are busy or anything

Jerry,

You know its not going to be that way forever. Plus it's 1 minute. They really don't have 1 minute? BEST SERVICE ANYWHERE is the claim. I don't think Elon believes adding swap is going to be the one item that will push them over the edge.

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Although the piece of information I found is convincing, I don't expect Tesla to introduce battery swapping for Model S and X. But it could be a very serious option for Gen III (I'd still consider 2017 to be 'the near future').

- People are buying a Model S including a battery. They own the battery. From a psychological standpoint it's difficult to see them swap their own battery, which many 'cherish' and take really good care of, with someone else's battery. And imagine an owner driving 200,000 miles in five years and then selling the car, but not before swapping the battery which degraded to 85-90% capacity for a brand new one? I can't see that happen.
- The supercharger model will work well for Model S and X, especially when charging times can be cut back some more. But with Gen III there will probably be 3 to 5 times more cars on the road. Those cars would swamp the Supercharger-network. It would be hard for Tesla to keep up with peak demand for supercharging. For this reason battery swapping does make sense for Gen III.
- Gen III still has to be developed. It's still easy to build it around battery swapping and also to introduce a sales model where you buy the car and lease the battery (which will make the car much cheaper, thus increasing sales!). Swapping the battery then poses no problems, since you don't own it.

I think you will pay a charge per day for the swapped battery and get your personal battery back (fully charged of course) after your road trip. Thus the concern of swapping your tired battery for a "new" battery is eliminated. It also addresses the concern about what if you took really really really really good care of your battery. What if you got some elses etc.

 

[jerry33]

You know its not going to be that way forever.

Not forever, but for the foreseeable future--at least the first couple of years.

Plus it's 1 minute.

Let's say the actual swap is one minute (the last post on the topic that I saw from Elon was five minutes). Then there is the paperwork, which will be at least five minutes and probably ten. Shuffling the car--a couple of minutes total. So it's more likely to be twenty minutes of employee time. This would work if they also have "Swapping specialists" at the service centres, but it will add significantly to the costs.

I think you will pay a charge per day for the swapped battery and get your personal battery back (fully charged of course) after your road trip.

You're making two assumptions: 1) The road trip is never going to be longer than one battery swap. 2) You will travel the exact same route in both directions. I don't believe either of those assumptions are valid.

 

[callmesam]

Not forever, but for the foreseeable future--at least the first couple of years.



Let's say the actual swap is one minute (the last post on the topic that I saw from Elon was five minutes). Then there is the paperwork, which will be at least five minutes and probably ten. Shuffling the car--a couple of minutes total. So it's more likely to be twenty minutes of employee time. This would work if they also have "Swapping specialists" at the service centres, but it will add significantly to the costs.



You're making two assumptions: 1) The road trip is never going to be longer than one battery swap. 2) You will travel the exact same route in both directions. I don't believe either of those assumptions are valid.

Jerry,

We are both making assumptions, but mine are based on the way Tesla has worked in the past and yours are based in traditional car dealer modes.

1. What paperwork? Tesla does most everything electronically. Why not adding swap to the app? No paper needed. (Tesla should hire me ;-)

2. Swap most likely will work from your home Service Center. If you have a 60kWh, then you are the most likely candidate for swap before a trip. Why? Because you need the bigger battery to reach Supercharging or your destination is outside the range of your smaller battery. Therefore, you WOULD be in proximity to your original battery.

If you want the 5 minute swap far from home for convenience, then you'll have to bring it back. Not a big problem. I just don't see the issue.

3. The assumption I make is that Supercharging is the answer for 99% of the long distance trips. Swap is the solution for small batteries or a fast recharge in a pinch. (1%)

4. My other assumption is that 99% of trips are less than 100 miles. So swap is simply a Piece-of-mind solution that doesn't cost Tesla much in the way of hardware or resources.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Another data point: the service tech that came out to swap out my 12v battery mentioned that he's done 4 high voltage pack swap outs and that they're way easier than the 12v swap. Also, he's been with Tesla for 1.5 months.

 

[ckessel]

Jerry,

You know its not going to be that way forever.

I'm not so sure. Obviously not forever, but for long enough as to make no difference. Tesla service has been slammed and hasn't remotely caught up yet. They don't even have the loaners available yet (at least in Portland) and when they do that's even more time dropping off/picking up loaners from customers.

Then Tesla is talking about 30,000 guidance in the future, a 50% increase so you'll want a 50% increase in service staff and stations.

Then the Model X is coming out and it'll have a whole new host of buyers and a few new wrinkles for service to figure out.

Then by the time service catches up on staffing for that, we're talking the Gen3 is right around the corner with a 5x expected increase in volume.

I'm not sure service is going to have spare time until Tesla finally hits a steady state and that may be 5-10 years from now.

 

[callmesam]

I'm not so sure. Obviously not forever, but for long enough as to make no difference. Tesla service has been slammed and hasn't remotely caught up yet. They don't even have the loaners available yet (at least in Portland) and when they do that's even more time dropping off/picking up loaners from customers.

Then Tesla is talking about 30,000 guidance in the future, a 50% increase so you'll want a 50% increase in service staff and stations.

Then the Model X is coming out and it'll have a whole new host of buyers and a few new wrinkles for service to figure out.

Then by the time service catches up on staffing for that, we're talking the Gen3 is right around the corner with a 5x expected increase in volume.

I'm not sure service is going to have spare time until Tesla finally hits a steady state and that may be 5-10 years from now.

I'm just not convinced that Elon musk can figure out a way to make money with solar panels, electric cars and rockets, but can't figure out how to do battery swaps. Sorry.

 

[brianstorms]

You're making two assumptions: 1) The road trip is never going to be longer than one battery swap. 2) You will travel the exact same route in both directions. I don't believe either of those assumptions are valid.

Then there's 3) Trips always end up having random things happen. Like, bad weather, road closures, hour long stoppages out in the middle of nowhere on the freeway resulting in 20-mile backups due to an overturned 18-wheeler, you name it. Will the battery swapping site be open 24/7? It'd have to be. What happens if we planned to retrace our route and dutifully swap back our original battery but we get there at midnight because of massive delays on the highway, only to find Tesla's SuperSwapper site closed? What then? We use the SuperCharger? Okay, but with someone else's battery? Then we drive home? With someone else's battery? How do we get our own back?

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm just not convinced that Elon musk can figure out a way to make money with solar panels, electric cars and rockets, but can't figure out how to do battery swaps. Sorry.

It surprises me that there are still people out there who doubt Elon. I'm a fan of what Steve Jobs was able to do with Apple, but damn...Elon Musk makes Steve Jobs look like an amateur. Elon will likely go down in a list of some of the greatest world changers ever.

 

[jeff_adams]

Swapping batteries at service centers is not the answer. Look at locations. Superchargers are BETWEEN travel destinations (for a reason). Service centers are near or at destinations. The batteries are already charged up there. Why swap them???

 

[callmesam]

Swapping batteries at service centers is not the answer. Look at locations. Superchargers are BETWEEN travel destinations (for a reason). Service centers are near or at destinations. The batteries are already charged up there. Why swap them???

Because swaps are used MOSTLY near home or between Superchargers. You Don't NEED Superchargers near swaps and vice versa. This fills in the areas that aren't quite served by Supercharges. They are a complement to Superchargers, not a substitute.

 

[jdevo2004]

Battery swapping will only be for those who want to RENT a larger battery for long distance driving. This will especially be applicable in 2-3 years when newer larger capacity battery packs become available and degradation of existing packs starts to kick in.

Here is how it works. You own a Model s with a 60 kwh battery and want to go on a road trip. You drop by an automated battery swapping station to rent the newest largest pack available to the model S, 105 kwh is a good assumption in a 2-3 years. Come back and switch back to your own pack when you have finished the road trip.

This is especially valuable for Tesla to sell Gen 3s. They can sell a low end 45Kwh Gen 3 to a customer and tell them that they can rent a 100Kwh pack any time they want for a road trip. They can also tell the customer that they will always be able to rent the highest capacity battery that can be produced in the future. Easy, fast, convenient.

I do not believe that Tesla will ever Lease batteries. Tesla will always include a battery pack with the sale.

 

[mhpr262]

Maybe in the future Tesla will offer the option to buy the car without the battery - for a considerably lower price - and offer the customers the chance to lease the battery, similar to what Renault is doing with the Twizy and the Zoe. That would eliminate all concerns about not getting ones "own" battery back.

Only yesterday I read (insideevs) that the Zoe was a real hit in France, with three out of four EV sold being a Zoe! The battery leasing idea doesn't appear to be utterly unattractice to customers, judging from these sales numbers.

 

[Iz]

Is there an assumption that swapping a 60 kWh battery to 85 or higher is a seamless process? I've gotten the impression that a software update would also be required for a different capacity battery. Another possible caveat is insurance. Rates may be based on battery size because of the sliding scale with regard to battery size as shown in the Geico quote page below.

 

[brianman]

The battery leasing idea doesn't appear to be utterly unattractice to customers, judging from these sales numbers.

If I could convert my Sig Perf to a shell where Tesla owns the battery and refunds me $40K or whatever, then this would be an interesting option. Until then, I will naturally be inclined to protect my investment in the battery.

 

[callmesam]

Battery swapping will only be for those who want to RENT a larger battery for long distance driving. This will especially be applicable in 2-3 years when newer larger capacity battery packs become available and degradation of existing packs starts to kick in.

Here is how it works. You own a Model s with a 60 kwh battery and want to go on a road trip. You drop by an automated battery swapping station to rent the newest largest pack available to the model S, 105 kwh is a good assumption in a 2-3 years. Come back and switch back to your own pack when you have finished the road trip.

This is especially valuable for Tesla to sell Gen 3s. They can sell a low end 45Kwh Gen 3 to a customer and tell them that they can rent a 100Kwh pack any time they want for a road trip. They can also tell the customer that they will always be able to rent the highest capacity battery that can be produced in the future. Easy, fast, convenient.

I do not believe that Tesla will ever Lease batteries. Tesla will always include a battery pack with the sale.

Great analysis. If it doesn't happen during this announcement, then its very likely to happen near term.

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If I could convert my Sig Perf to a shell where Tesla owns the battery and refunds me $40K or whatever, then this would be an interesting option. Until then, I will naturally be inclined to protect my investment in the battery.

I don't think they would lend out your battery if you came in for a swap. I think they'd just hold it until you came back.

 

[jeff_adams]

Because swaps are used MOSTLY near home or between Superchargers. You Don't NEED Superchargers near swaps and vice versa. This fills in the areas that aren't quite served by Supercharges. They are a complement to Superchargers, not a substitute.

Still not buying that. Service centers will NOT be located in the boonies. They will be located close to where the highest concentration of owners live. Those owners will be charged up for the road trip and will not benefit from a swap. So having your service centers in LA and Vegas DO NOT benefit you for a road trip from one to the other. The only way a swap can benefit you if it's in Barstow. No way will "service centers" be in places like Barstow.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Battery swapping will only be for those who want to RENT a larger battery for long distance driving. This will especially be applicable in 2-3 years when newer larger capacity battery packs become available and degradation of existing packs starts to kick in.

Here is how it works. You own a Model s with a 60 kwh battery and want to go on a road trip. You drop by an automated battery swapping station to rent the newest largest pack available to the model S, 105 kwh is a good assumption in a 2-3 years. Come back and switch back to your own pack when you have finished the road trip.

This is especially valuable for Tesla to sell Gen 3s. They can sell a low end 45Kwh Gen 3 to a customer and tell them that they can rent a 100Kwh pack any time they want for a road trip. They can also tell the customer that they will always be able to rent the highest capacity battery that can be produced in the future. Easy, fast, convenient.

I do not believe that Tesla will ever Lease batteries. Tesla will always include a battery pack with the sale.

This scheme made some sense when there was going to be 40kWh cars on the road. It makes almost no sense to me now.

If the primary justification for investing in battery swaps is because Tesla is concerned that their batteries are going to degrade into uselessness in 2 years, or that the current packs are not large enough, that will not be a good thing for their investors.

With all 60kWh cars being SuperCharger capable, the marginal benefit of an extra 20 or 30 miles of range on a trip is virtually nil. The only reason for Tesla to do battery swap is if they do the rapid automated swaps that they keep saying the Model S is capable of.

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Still not buying that. Service centers will NOT be located in the boonies. They will be located close to where the highest concentration of owners live. Those owners will be charged up for the road trip and will not benefit from a swap. So having your service centers in LA and Vegas DO NOT benefit you for a road trip from one to the other. The only way a swap can benefit you if it's in Barstow. No way will "service centers" be in places like Barstow.

You are both correct, and incorrect. Battery swaps will occur on the highway. These sites will be called "service centers" and many might well have service facilities attached to to provide additional coverage to the region. Perhaps only staffed with mobile technicians of some sort.. lets call them "Rangers".

But the swapping will be entirely automated. And fast.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla already demonstrated battery swapping in the required time (10 min?) to CARB before start of production. They are most likely already receiving 7 ZEV credits per car. They used a practiced "pit crew" of their top notch technicians to do the demo.

Do you know this to be true (if so source?) or are you speculating? If this is true, it changes the intentions of Tesla completely (it means they may be serious about battery swapping, depending on if this decision to build a battery swap demonstration is related to the recent proposal by CARB to eliminate battery swapping as a fast refill option).

Elon said on the investors call that they expect revenue for ZEV credits to be zero by the fourth quarter of this year, since the buyers will have all they need by then. I don't know if this is for 2013 only, or if no further ZEV credit revenue is expected ever.

I expect this to only apply for 2013. If Nissan continues to not sell any ZEV credits, Tesla will still have a market for them.

Also, if CARB eliminates fast battery swap as a fast refilling option, and ZEV credits can be sold in future years, then Tesla is likely to demonstrate even faster charging ("UltraSuperCharging?") to get the fast refilling credits. This could be done with a 5C charge to 60% SOC with upgraded connector and cables.

I don't expect a 5C charge to be safely done on the NCA chemistry. Even 2C is pushing it. Tesla is pretty close to the battery limits already. The fastest charging chemistries are lithium iron phosphate (a123) and lithium–titanate (SCiB/Altairnano) at 10C.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

I still find it hard to believe that battery swapping stations will be economically feasible, especially over the vast stretches of the American Midwest. Imagine how much it cost to build one of these BetterPlace swapping stations...

Better Place Battery Replacement Station in Ekron - YouTube

This looks like a multi-million-dollar installation, not to mention the land required. A typical Supercharger installation costs about $250K, usually working with existing parking infrastructure. Certainly, the swapping stations would not be free to drivers.

Perhaps in urban areas only.

 

[bollar]

I doubt Tesla will implement a system where you'll get your original battery back when returning after a swap. All of their communication, from the basically unlimited warranty on the battery, to the removal of the "range charge" in the upcoming software is designed to remove consumer concern that they have to treat the battery a special way to get maximum life out of it. I think they see this issue as ultimately limiting to sales and are willing to work around the problem with the swap.

If they don't offer to return the battery to you, then this dramatically simplifies inventory, doesn't it? If it takes five minutes to change a pack and an hour to fully charge, then you only need 12 packs for a lane plus a couple of spares for packs that somehow fail.

I do see this as being implemented primarily in the most remote of locations -- places where you don't want to wait an hour to charge -- between Amarillo and Albuquerque, for example (no offense to the residents of Santa Rosa).

Although I don't see wanting to use swapping often, I know that I would like to to be able to take the Tesla on a destination vacation -- Destin, FL is popular from Dallas, but it's a 700 mile drive -- I know plenty of people who do that in a long day with ICE, so they can maximize their stay in Florida *and* have their own car to drive around. Alternating swapping with Superchargers on the route would be a great way to allow a Tesla to make that journey.