Proof of Tesla's plan for battery swapping

[callmesam]

I have a theory that goes something like this:
Announcement 4:
Tesla announces about the Superchargers. Lots of new stations announced.
Announcement 5:
1. Tesla announces battery swap for 60's for 85kWh batteries at Service Center before/during big road trips. This is a service that will hardly get used since most people will be able to use a Supercharger, but will offer 1 minute swap with appointment. Each Service Center will only need to maintain a few large packs since the demand will be mild.
2. They couple this "faster than a fill-up" recharge with 120kWh charging so that Supercharge fill times drop significantly.
3. The cost of swap service will be complimentary for anyone with a service plan and some nominal amount if you choose to pay on a per use basis.
Evidence:
A. Tesla said in SEC-filing for Q2 "our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we plan to introduce in the NEAR future." [Emphasis added]
B. 120 kwh charging has already been baked in.
C. It gives Tesla access to 7 ZEV credits instead of 4 credits per car as battery swap satisfies the fast refueling requirements.
D. Adding battery swaps at Tesla Service centers effectively triples Tesla's fast charging network. (Add all Superchargers (9) to all Service Centers (25?)
This scenario is extremely cost effective since it only requires:
1. Upgrade to vehicle software.
2. 10 battery packs per service center x 25? Service Centers x $20,000/pack = $5 Million
3. Battery swapping machine

 

[woof]

I'm reading lots of posts about "storing the owner's batteries" and "I want to get MY battery back". As long as there limitations on the battery warranty, this mindset has merit, as people will always think they take better care of their pack than someone else.

However, what if Tesla changes the rules on the battery so that no matter what, in any condition and at any age, they will replace a pack with a pack?

This removes all the degradation issues entirely. Packs become fungible like dollar bills, one is worth just as much as another no matter the condition. Tesla will always trade one like pack for another. No need for leasing batteries either, as an 85kWh pack came with the car, and an having an 85kWh pack is like a "coupon" good for getting an 85kWh pack. Just like a beat up dollar bill can be exchanged for a crisp new dollar bill at a bank, a used battery pack can be exchanged for a full battery pack at a Tesla swapping location.

Tesla will weed out and recondition the "bad" packs, so there should never be a bum one in stock. And they'll happily repurpose the degraded cells from packs as a means of buffering the grid to lower demand charges on their charging equipment, and perhaps even feeding back to the grid in a smart grid configuration, and/or do time of use arbitrage to buy low and sell high.

 

[RDoc]

Is it possible that a battery swapping infrastructure might actually be cheaper than the current Supercharger system?

Suppose the swapping station was just a single robot swapper plus a cassette of say 10 batteries with no special connection to the grid, or perhaps no connection at all. The cassette of depleted batteries would be exchanged for another with charged batteries as needed, once every day or so depending on traffic. The cassettes would then be trucked to a central facility where all the batteries for a region would be recharged. It might even be possible to have the swapping station mobile, running off a generator, so areas with high episodic demand could be covered as needed. For example, a ski region only on weekends in winter.

There'd only be a single bay for swapping since it would be so fast and only a single location with a high power (very high power) connection to the grid for several swapping stations. That location could be in an area already well connected such as an industrial park.

 

[jomo25]

If all thats needed to move from 4 to 7 SEV credits is to prove the vehicle is capable of it, then it doesn't promise that the swap stations need to be rolled out anytime in the near future. And none of Elon's tweets or hints say what he's talking about will be readily rolled out or available. But gaining the 3 extra ZEV credits, and the promise of this capability in the MS will certainly attract more potential buyers.

 

[brianman]

However, what if Tesla changes the rules on the battery so that no matter what, in any condition and at any age, they will replace a pack with a pack?

This removes all the degradation issues entirely

Not quite. They will replace it when? Suppose my morning charge drops from 237 to 235. Should I be able to have it replaced at no cost immediately via ranger service?

To my knowledge, thus far there are no crisp definitions of "early degradation" for example.

 

[jbini1]

being a race car driver i would think the swapping would ultimately be used in racing, most high performance cars race to gather data to improve ther vehicles and aquirre a cult like following... they have that though. racing can also prove how good your engineering is against the other manufactures. Audi is a great example, win enough 1st place races and your domestic car sales will out perform you competitor just as you did on the track.
i think for all practical purposes charging is logical. humans need rest rooms, food, a break from driving after 200+ miles etc. Elon has said via twitter that you you will soon charge faster than you can pump gas, or as fast at least. From a auto or mechanic prospective, as well as a business owner the liability and rate of return on cost would probably not make it worth while. Teslas super chargers have ample storage (since they use the same battery packs for super stations and the model s) and they could add more to create a super charger with faster charging, plus they can sell power to the grid when needed making the super station not only free for us, but profitable to tesla, and a much better business plan.

 

[mhpr262]

playboy?

From what I have heard he used to be a pretty wild one in his younger days ... not that there is anything wromg with that in my book

 

[green01]

The additional ZEV credits for battery swapping might disappear.
The California Air Resources Board has a ZEV Workshop planned to discuss this and other changes on May 20, 2013.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/mailouts/msc1313/msc1313.pdf

One proposed change is to exclude battery swapping as a “fast refueling” technology.
If Tesla is thinking of battery swapping, they should attend this workshop.

 

[Duckjybe]

I will be very surprised if they provide battery swap as a solution to long distance travel. Too expensive and complex. It's like swapping out the engine every time you want to fill up. It's the most expensive component on the car and I do not want to mess around with it. Its a risk getting someone else's battery that may have been abused. No thanks, not for me. I'll use the superchargers. Better Place has tried battery swap and are failing.

 

[callmesam]

@Duckjybe

I don't think this is a "solution" to long distance travel. It is an inexpensive insurance policy for people that bought the 60kWh and those that need to quick swap if they are in a rush.

It's a way to get ZEV credits.

It's a way to add quasi-supercharging station by installing a flange of extra swappable batteries.

The swapping tech is already in place.

The equipment to swap is very simple to engineer.

The costs almost nothing in capital. In fact, Tesla could keep the spare packs and sell energy in the afternoon and charge at night for grid backup. There are many ways to squeeze revenue from this model.

It just won't be utilized often, IMO.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

I'm reading lots of posts about "storing the owner's batteries" and "I want to get MY battery back". As long as there limitations on the battery warranty, this mindset has merit, as people will always think they take better care of their pack than someone else.

However, what if Tesla changes the rules on the battery so that no matter what, in any condition and at any age, they will replace a pack with a pack?

This removes all the degradation issues entirely. Packs become fungible like dollar bills, one is worth just as much as another no matter the condition. Tesla will always trade one like pack for another. No need for leasing batteries either, as an 85kWh pack came with the car, and an having an 85kWh pack is like a "coupon" good for getting an 85kWh pack. Just like a beat up dollar bill can be exchanged for a crisp new dollar bill at a bank, a used battery pack can be exchanged for a full battery pack at a Tesla swapping location.

Tesla will weed out and recondition the "bad" packs, so there should never be a bum one in stock. And they'll happily repurpose the degraded cells from packs as a means of buffering the grid to lower demand charges on their charging equipment, and perhaps even feeding back to the grid in a smart grid configuration, and/or do time of use arbitrage to buy low and sell high.

I think you are spot-on. To optimize Gen3 model costs, leasing would most likely have to be an option though. Sell the Gen3 model for $18500 and lease the pack for $1500 a year.

- - - Updated - - -

I will be very surprised if they provide battery swap as a solution to long distance travel. Too expensive and complex. It's like swapping out the engine every time you want to fill up. It's the most expensive component on the car and I do not want to mess around with it. Its a risk getting someone else's battery that may have been abused. No thanks, not for me. I'll use the superchargers. Better Place has tried battery swap and are failing.

It's rather equivalent to swapping the empty gas tank with a preloaded one. Quality management of those components is completely Tesla's responsibility and not the customer's. There is no reason to assume that there is no per-battery-pack characteristics and aging/usage monitoring in place. The battery packs are very well defined and monitored systems (they must be, it's what keeps the thing moving). Tesla is certainly going to try and manage battery aging to the best of their abilities to keep any kinds of inconveniences and annoyances from the customers.

 

[walla2]

I thought about the my battery pack for your pack issue before and didn't see a way for it to be done. What if you could have the option for swapping and keeping a less degraded battery? They could charge you 5% for your 95% battery and you could keep the new one. Tesla would just need to make sure packs in the swapper were good and give the option of getting back your old one.

The old 85 packs could be put in a 60 car (since ballast makes the 60 the same weight) and 60 packs could be used for solarcity battery backups.

 

[Soflason]

Wow, great catch - like digging up a hidden treasure on page 38 of the SEC filing. I know Israeli company Better Place, the brainchild of Shai Agassi, more here for those interested...
Our Story | Better Place

... has been pretty hot with the investment community (on and off), governments, and forward-thinking consumers for quite some time. It's got it's detractors but it's an intriguing solution that's (currently) faster than supercharging.

I thought this solution was off-the-table. But, this could indeed get interesting...

 

[GSP]

Yep. You only need to demonstrate your car can do battery swapping and that's enough to get it the full credit. It's not the automaker's responsibility to ensure a practical number of battery swap stations pop up or that they get used (or analogously quick charging stations or hydrogen stations).

That is unless CARB decides to write in some extra terms, but currently the ZEV requirement only requires the capability of doing so (which Tesla obviously has to demonstrate in at least in one location).

Tesla already demonstrated battery swapping in the required time (10 min?) to CARB before start of production. They are most likely already receiving 7 ZEV credits per car. They used a practiced "pit crew" of their top notch technicians to do the demo.

Elon said on the investors call that they expect revenue for ZEV credits to be zero by the fourth quarter of this year, since the buyers will have all they need by then. I don't know if this is for 2013 only, or if no further ZEV credit revenue is expected ever.

Also, if CARB eliminates fast battery swap as a fast refilling option, and ZEV credits can be sold in future years, then Tesla is likely to demonstrate even faster charging ("UltraSuperCharging?") to get the fast refilling credits. This could be done with a 5C charge to 60% SOC with upgraded connector and cables.

GSP

 

[Volker.Berlin]

I can see two reasons why Tesla might want to build at least one battery swap station.
1) It gives Tesla access to 7 ZEV credits per car rather than 4 credits per car because battery swap would satisfy the fast refueling requirements necessary to get full credits.
2) It'll shut up the last naysayers who say supercharging still isn't fast enough and it's useful PR. The fact that it's very hard to make it work in the practical world has little to do with how convincing the idea is to the public (see hydrogen and Better Place).

Until now I was very confident that Tesla would not anytime soon pursue battery swapping, for all the reasons mentioned in this and other threads, but the case you make is pretty convincing -- particularly in the light of the SEC filing.

 

[Duckjybe]

It's rather equivalent to swapping the empty gas tank with a preloaded one.

In its end function but not in its complexity. You cannot compare a tank full of liquid to a highly complex 1,000 pound "tank" full of 8,000 batteries, thermal management tubes, sensors, high voltage lines, etc. Its also a structural member of the car. And then are they going to have a team of trained technicians at all of the 200 or so swap sites across the country just sitting there waiting for people 24 hrs a day. And then when they have battery problems with packs or need more of them at other sites, ship 1000 lb packs all over the place? No way. Not going to happen. I will not mess with this kind of integral component of the car every time I want to fill up!

 

[Zarb]

I too thought battery swapping was in the rear view mirror. From a brand perspective to not confuse the message it will need to have a clear different purpose than the superchargers. Starting with the assumption that it is battery swapping, what is the logical play, what is the customer use case? My guess would be a quick stop for a step change, say 500+ mile pack. Then use the supercharges on your trip and get your pack back when you return. Provides clear differentiation to superchargers. Also could provide real world use of next gen 4.1 batteries in rental packs before having to warranty them in customer cars.

 

[callmesam]

Until now I was very confident that Tesla would not anytime soon pursue battery swapping, for all the reasons mentioned in this and other threads, but the case you make is pretty convincing -- particularly in the light of the SEC filing.

I'm also convinced that this works into their strategy of creating a bigger battery pack in the future. If they produce the 105kWh battery pack for the swapping, then there WOULD be a good business case for using a swap for a long trip as it will allow a much further distance traveled without having to stop. And you could offer the upgraded packs for sale (or exchange) for a modest fee.

BTW, 3 years of improved battery chemistry provides for movement from 85kWh battery to ~107kWh battery pack over three years = 375 mile range.

- - - Updated - - -

In its end function but not in its complexity. You cannot compare a tank full of liquid to a highly complex 1,000 pound "tank" full of 8,000 batteries, thermal management tubes, sensors, high voltage lines, etc. Its also a structural member of the car. And then are they going to have a team of trained technicians at all of the 200 or so swap sites across the country just sitting there waiting for people 24 hrs a day. And then when they have battery problems with packs or need more of them at other sites, ship 1000 lb packs all over the place? No way. Not going to happen. I will not mess with this kind of integral component of the car every time I want to fill up!

1. If a swap happens in ~1 minute, then the swap is by definition NOT complex or time consuming. If the swap is done with minimal intervention, then they already have a "team of trained technicians".

2. Who said anything about 200 or so swap sites. Why not just have them at Tesla Service Centers?

3. Who said anything about 200 miles a day. Superchargers are open 24 hours a day. Swaps are scheduled for business hours.

- - - Updated - - -

I too thought battery swapping was in the rear view mirror. From a brand perspective to not confuse the message it will need to have a clear different purpose than the superchargers. Starting with the assumption that it is battery swapping, what is the logical play, what is the customer use case? My guess would be a quick stop for a step change, say 500+ mile pack. Then use the supercharges on your trip and get your pack back when you return. Provides clear differentiation to superchargers. Also could provide real world use of next gen 4.1 batteries in rental packs before having to warranty them in customer cars.

Agree, although they may not wait for the 500 mile pack for differentiation.

 

[jerry33]

Why not just have them at Tesla Service Centers?

Right, the service folks have plenty of spare time and space to devote to swapping batteries, it's not like they are busy or anything

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Although the piece of information I found is convincing, I don't expect Tesla to introduce battery swapping for Model S and X. But it could be a very serious option for Gen III (I'd still consider 2017 to be 'the near future').

- People are buying a Model S including a battery. They own the battery. From a psychological standpoint it's difficult to see them swap their own battery, which many 'cherish' and take really good care of, with someone else's battery. And imagine an owner driving 200,000 miles in five years and then selling the car, but not before swapping the battery which degraded to 85-90% capacity for a brand new one? I can't see that happen.
- The supercharger model will work well for Model S and X, especially when charging times can be cut back some more. But with Gen III there will probably be 3 to 5 times more cars on the road. Those cars would swamp the Supercharger-network. It would be hard for Tesla to keep up with peak demand for supercharging. For this reason battery swapping does make sense for Gen III.
- Gen III still has to be developed. It's still easy to build it around battery swapping and also to introduce a sales model where you buy the car and lease the battery (which will make the car much cheaper, thus increasing sales!). Swapping the battery then poses no problems, since you don't own it.