I wonder if Musk is aiming to make Tesla’s FSD the standard, as he did with charging. License it to all the manufacturers. It would dramatically increase the amount of training data available, it would save the other manufacturers a fortune in R&D, it would more easily allow the cars to talk to one another, and the revenue would allow Tesla to increase its investment in the technology. It would also help the Western auto companies stay ahead of the Chinese.
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One FSD to Rule them All!
- Thread starter bdwalters
- Start date
The problem is the cameras and their positions. We already know that the HW4 Teslas are using HW3 training data in emulation. So other MFGs would need the same cameras in the exact same positions in order to use the current HW3 training. Or they would have to re-train a new NN.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
It’s not clear how much of FSD is trained from simulation data. Simulated data could be generated for any camera position.
As tesla folks said on recent earnings call, this requires a lot of work of the FSD licencee, about 3 years from start to finish. This is technically doable.
A more fundamental question is revenue from FSD, is it something (subscription) people will pay for it as an extra item or is it considered a safety feature like seat belt and backup camera, which is baked into the car price by default.
From Tesla recent 10q, there are 5 mentions of FSD, and its deferred $ is not promising per financial reporting ($3.5 bn unchanged from prior reporting period).
So after 12.3.x free trial, the take rate is a critical indicator, is it a toy or real must for mass market at $1200/year. I asked 4 friends recently, they all love FSD but none wants to pay $99. I am also on the fence. On the flip side of this, if my auto insurance company says that we deem FSD so safe and can give me a rebate of $100 for my model y monthly premium, I would pay $99 FSD. But this is unlikely, as my auto insurance premium is just $101 a month.
So in my view, FSD has little revenue effcet.
A more fundamental question is revenue from FSD, is it something (subscription) people will pay for it as an extra item or is it considered a safety feature like seat belt and backup camera, which is baked into the car price by default.
From Tesla recent 10q, there are 5 mentions of FSD, and its deferred $ is not promising per financial reporting ($3.5 bn unchanged from prior reporting period).
So after 12.3.x free trial, the take rate is a critical indicator, is it a toy or real must for mass market at $1200/year. I asked 4 friends recently, they all love FSD but none wants to pay $99. I am also on the fence. On the flip side of this, if my auto insurance company says that we deem FSD so safe and can give me a rebate of $100 for my model y monthly premium, I would pay $99 FSD. But this is unlikely, as my auto insurance premium is just $101 a month.
So in my view, FSD has little revenue effcet.
EVRider-FL
Active Member
That was three years for a highly motivated automaker, so most likely longer than that. We won’t know if it’s technically doable until someone actually does it.
EVRider-FL
Active Member
Maybe I should have said technically feasible. Tesla designed their cars to interface with their AP technology, and we don’t know how difficult that interface would be for other automakers to adopt. There’s also the question of whether another automaker would be willing to move forward based on how FSD performs today vs. an expectation of future performance. FSD has come a long way in the last 7+ years, but it still has a long way to go. Other automakers won’t invest heavily until they are confident in the result.
I heard Tesla may even allow the Cybertruck to use the Tesla FSDS system some day. I think they already have their licenses so I bet it maybe happenes in less than 3 years. Probably by the "end of the week" just like ALL Tesla cars are on V12. 
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