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Looks like their collisions are about the same. 71 in 2022, 50 in 2023 and 14 (x3 = 42) so far this year. Though I didn’t look to see if how many are with a safety driver driving (safety drivers seem to get in dumb low speed collisions).

That would be a horrible metric. So we deploy AVs and the number of fatalities increases? If I’m a passenger an AV I don’t care whose fault it is when it crashes. Highways are easier for L3 if it’s just a traffic jam assist features. I’m skeptical that they’ll get full speed with no lead car...

Highways are simpler most of the time. The problem is the times when there are pedestrians on the highway or there is someone driving the wrong way or there is who know what falling off vehicles or overturned trucks. Trying to get 100 million miles between fatal collisions with all the crazy...

anti lock brakes are required because they allow you to turn with brakes fully applied. When they were first developed I don’t think they even decreased stopping distance (because they didn’t modulate all the wheels separately and they had slow modulation) I don’t think they’ll ever require...

More evidence Waymo is cranking up the temperature on the neural nets these days (assuming this is new). It does seem like we're seeing a lot more Waymo fails than we used to. I assume it's because they're doing way more miles.

Interesting. It does seem like it must have been specifically programmed to turn there. I doubt it turns left at normal no left turn signs (otherwise we’d see video of that since they’re much more common than no left turn except for specific vehicles)

There is a signal there for a protected left turn. It’s too bad we’ll probably never get an explanation. Would be interesting to see how they screwed it up. My guess is that it’s a mapping error but it does seem like it must be recent even though nothing on the street has changed.

Interesting. Hopefully Waymo will explain. I suspect that Waymo thinks they are allowed in transit lanes but did not program in this exception.

SFMTA says taxis are allowed in the lanes. https://www.sfmta.com/muni-tips-using-transit-lanes#:~:text=Transit%20lanes%20are%20lanes%20that,such%20as%20Lyft%20and%20Uber. Waymos are taxis.

Sounds like @AlanSubie4Life is the only one generating interventions these days. Will they need to extend the free trial to get more data?

Tesla is much less worried about you suing them than they are about the person you hit suing them. While you could agree to pay Tesla’s legal fees it’s unlikely your pockets are deep enough.

The road has straight sections (see 0:13). I just don’t go around blind turns while on the wrong side of the road no matter how long I have to wait. FSD makes a bad plan. If it continued with that plan there could have been a collision. People disengage and say they prevented a collision...

Not reasonable to go around a blind turn in the oncoming lane. Which is the only way it would be able to complete the maneuver (look how far ahead the cyclist is!)

I doubt they have humans going between multiple stations. The production rate is way too fast for that. Obviously there's enormous potential utility in humanoid robots. The reason we haven't seen any has nothing to do with cost. Uber is $2 a mile where I live. It could be $100k and still make...

What can humanoid robots currently do better than a factory robot? What human job can they do? GM has a factory to make the Cruise Origin and claimed it can be produced at the cost of a mid size SUV. The reason they're not building it is the software doesn't work.

Useless humanoid robots and useless autonomous vehicles are proven technologies. Tesla is just taking the next logical step of bringing them to mass production.

T I'm sure it will be on the front page soon. haha. I wish the Waymo video showed what happened next. I've definitely done turns like that but I don't think I've ever driven that far in the wrong lane. It's clearly been trained for LA driving (i.e. gridlock)

So, if you charge to 100% then FSD will not brake? FSD does not care about the mode or regen. It requests deceleration and the car decelerates.

Charge the car to 100% and use the "Apply Brakes When Regenerative Braking is Limited" mode. The pedal will move significantly when you let off the accelerator, turn it off and it won't move at all and you will coast.

It’s obviously not a sensor problem since you can clearly see curbs on the camera. With end-to-end there’s no way to know if the neural net “sees” the curb. All we know are the inputs and outputs.

It can if the reflectivity of the light and dark parts of the sign are different. But why wouldn’t you just use the cameras? Every AV has cameras. The problem is nobody has figured out how to get the performance necessary out of cameras. Tesla is still hitting curbs.

I honestly have no idea. I can’t understand how it could work in simulation but not in real life.

I’m not talking about Robotaxis where 99% would horrendous. Locals are trying to get way higher than 99% success. I bet they could easily do the turn 99 times in a row. It’s almost the simplest possible left turn from a side street on to a highway. I’ve never seen it have pedestrians. It...

It’s just a physics problem. With good perception you could probably do it 99% of the time with a simple planner that assumes that all vehicles continue traveling with their current speed and trajectory. There are no pedestrians, the cameras can see everything, and you don’t have a problem of...

https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/2021/07/the-hall-of-presidents-sharing-the-story-of-libertys-leaders-for-50-years/

Sounds like 12.4 be more of the same but 12.5 will be when they get the first “9” for Chuck’s UPL.

it stops much farther than 2-3 feet from the limit line. Look at @AlanSubie4Life’s pictures! Not sure why you’re imagining a hypothetical situation where the limit line is placed where you can’t see the cross traffic, that’s not where limit lines are. Creeping is why the guy got the ticket...

The focus on cost makes no sense to me. Nobody has made a useful humanoid robot at any cost yet.

How would the case be different if there was a limit line? The complaint is that FSD stops too far back to properly see traffic!

It is illegal to stop too far back in California. Defendant convicted for stopping 10 feet back. https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/ca-superior-court/1712024.html

My hypothesis is that it’s trained with simulated data. They stop where the front camera can see the line because otherwise the car “forgets” that it’s there and somehow that causes problems.

Pretty sure nearly every new car already has AEB. Automakers fulfill autobrake pledge for light-duty vehicles

Optimus will also be able to do basic service like tire rotation and rim rash repair.

Something else I didn’t consider is that supercharger utilization is very low. If they deploy an Optimus at each supercharger your car will be able to drive itself to the supercharger and get a charge while you sleep.

Also, robotaxis will not use public superchargers. They will go to depots where Optimus robots will clean and charge them. Another consideration is that because demand varies over the day robotaxis have plenty of time to charge so they don't need super fast charging.

Or they don’t want to burn their sources. If a company is trying to find a leaker they’ll send a slightly different version of an email to each recipient.

Maybe superchargers will not be needed for future models. Miniature fusion generators will be a $10 trillion dollar business. There’s a reason Musk said Tesla would be bigger than Apple and Aramco combined.

Not sure what you’re saying. Elon is definitely the one who has pushed the team to solve Chuck’s UPL. Seems very unlikely they’re devoting so much time to it otherwise. It’s a totally normal left turn. I have no idea where everyone here is driving. I think somehow it must look abnormal on video.

Most collisions at intersections happen when there is a traffic signal. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811366 I’m not sure it’s possible to exit Chuck’s neighborhood doing only right turns.

Sep 30th 2022. 😮

Close call at 1:53. Guessing it doesn't recognize moving objects? Not single stack yet?

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf In the Warrenton Virginia crash the driver was going 70mph in a 45mph zone. I wonder how that's possible with FSD enabled...

I don't think it's possible. Sure you could probably train the system to recognize any particular attack but humans are inventive. AI is very bad at recognizing things that have never happened before. What advance will allow that? It doesn't seem like more training data will help. How will it...

Tesla: "we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed." NHTSA: "A review of NHTSA’s 2021 FARS and Crash Report Sampling System (CRSS) finds that only 18 percent of police-reported crashes include airbag deployments." Tesla: "In the 4th...

Well, if they are, I think it's a waste of time. There have been quite a few attacks on Waymo vehicles and none of them have been anywhere near as sophisticated as radar spoofing. It would not be very hard to make the radar system immune to spoofing. Being immune to jamming is probably much more...

@AlanSubie4Life your chariot awaits!

Bricks are cheap and effective against both human driven vehicles and Waymos. I'd much rather be in the backseat of a Waymo if someone throws a brick through the windshield.

Or they just won't do anything about it. All this concern about adversarial stuff is silly. These are not combat vehicles, there are many ways to stop them. When Waymo makes a military version then they can worry about this kind of thing.

Her reaction time is quite good. She gasps a fraction of a second after the car starts moving. Her response time is not so good. I saw potato video quality on the embedded video but when I went to Xitter it was much better.