FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[uscbucsfan]

This is a big shark. Should arguably be called shark v13.

<fire emoji>

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782851466426028255

Sounds like 12.4 be more of the same but 12.5 will be when they get the first “9” for Chuck’s UPL.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782851466426028255

Sounds like 12.4 be more of the same but 12.5 will be when they get the first “9” for Chuck’s UPL.

WTF. I vote they cancel v12.4 and rename v12.5 to be v12.4.

He’s just trolling everyone at this point. V12.4 is next level, while 12.5 is nother level? Why is there not a serious person in charge of this effort (which has failed at the simplest task of an unprotected left for about three years)?

It’ll be funny if v12.4 still fails on this turn lane selection.

 

[cyborgLIS]

I don't understand why they release versions that are several versions behind the one they are currently developing? Elon is talking about 12.5, which implies that all the sub-versions of 12.4 and 12.3 have already been iterated through. So why are we still getting 12.3.x releases? This also furthers the notion that the voice feedback feature is pointless. For all we know, the issues we are reporting have already been fixed 4 versions later lol.

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

I don't understand why they release versions that are several versions behind the one they are currently developing? Elon is talking about 12.5, which implies that all the sub-versions of 12.4 and 12.3 have already been iterated through. So why are we still getting 12.3.x releases? This also furthers the notion that the voice feedback feature is pointless. For all we know, the issues we are reporting have already been fixed 4 versions later lol.

Because it’s likely all BS.

 

[willow_hiller]

I don't understand why they release versions that are several versions behind the one they are currently developing? Elon is talking about 12.5, which implies that all the sub-versions of 12.4 and 12.3 have already been iterated through. So why are we still getting 12.3.x releases? This also furthers the notion that the voice feedback feature is pointless. For all we know, the issues we are reporting have already been fixed 4 versions later lol.

From the Q1 2024 Earnings Call transcript:

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

And we do have some insight into how good the things will be in like, let's say, three or four months because we have advanced models that our far more capable than what is in the car, but have some issues with them that we need to fix. So, they are there'll be a step change improvement in the capabilities of the car, but it will have some quirks that are -- that need to be addressed in order to release it. As Ashok was saying, we have to be very careful in what we release the fleet or to customers in general.

So, if we look at, say, 12.4 and 12.5, which are really -- could arguably even be Version 13, Version 14 because it's pretty close to a total retrain of the neural nets in each case are substantially different. So, we have good insight into where the model is, how well the car will perform in, say, three or four months.

So basically, they have greater capabilities, but also bad regressions that need working out before public release.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

From the Q1 2024 Earnings Call transcript:



So basically, they have greater capabilities, but also bad regressions that need working out before public release.

But, they won't be all that good at the basic tasks, most likely.

At this point it is "show me." I guess that is a reason to do 12.4, to show they actually can fix problems? But why not just skip v12.4 and hold off on public release of 12.5 until it is ready?

Just seems pointless to take the risk of releasing something which may have dangerous regressions when you know you have an even a better version a month or two further down the pipe. What's the benefit? Ability to catch new issues from the fleet which are then fed forward and leapfrogged to the next version? Are they even doing this? Why not just simulate the basic problems and fix those instead? Is there really any significant value in a public release at this point to highlight the weak points, when you can just simulate everything? Seems like public release would only be important for bringing out edge cases, at this point. Not even clear that is needed; it's not like they don't have a huge amount of video already!

Is it for the hype? I just think the continued videos of FSD's inability to perform basic maneuvers are more harmful to Elon's narrative than helpful. Wait until there is something that works and is really stunning!

 

[kpanda17]

I don't understand why they release versions that are several versions behind the one they are currently developing? Elon is talking about 12.5, which implies that all the sub-versions of 12.4 and 12.3 have already been iterated through. So why are we still getting 12.3.x releases? This also furthers the notion that the voice feedback feature is pointless. For all we know, the issues we are reporting have already been fixed 4 versions later lol.

guys, if you ever did software development, its called the CI/CD pipeline
before the SW ver gets to us, it makes a stop at various dev and QA milestones

so, 12.4 is in release, 12.5 is in test and sub versions are at various microstages inside of each

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

guys, if you ever did software development, its called the CI/CD pipeline
before the SW ver gets to us, it makes a stop at various dev and QA milestones
View attachment 1043878
so, 12.4 is in release, 12.5 is in test and sub versions are at various microstages inside of each

I could see this if you had a stable product and were just tweaking it or adding new features. Just doesn't seem to match the inchoate nature of FSD at the moment.

 

[cyborgLIS]

From the Q1 2024 Earnings Call transcript:



So basically, they have greater capabilities, but also bad regressions that need working out before public release.

Thank you, but I still don't completely understand. If 12.5 is in development, I presume that means the final versions of 12.4 and 12.3 are complete. Or are 12.3, 12.4 and 12.5 being developed in parallel? That would seem like a waste of resources but maybe they are not sure which version is better. So they may have created 3 branches to see which approach will prove successful.

 

[kpanda17]

Thank you, but I still don't completely understand. If 12.5 is in development, I presume that means 12.4.x and 12.3.x are complete. Or are 12.3, and 12.4 and 12.5 being developed in parallel? That would seem like a waste of resources but maybe they are not sure which version is better. So they may have created 3 branches to see which approach will prove successful.

yes, each of these could have their own CI CD and working on a merges at various points

12.3

12.4

12.5

we know that 2024.14 is the roll in for those legacy vehicles that were stuck on 11.x

 

[uscbucsfan]

Thank you, but I still don't completely understand. If 12.5 is in development, I presume that means the final versions of 12.4 and 12.3 are complete. Or are 12.3, 12.4 and 12.5 being developed in parallel? That would seem like a waste of resources but maybe they are not sure which version is better. So they may have created 3 branches to see which approach will prove successful.

They've always developed multiple version in parallel. They were working and testing V12 for almost a year prior to release, same with V11.

 

[MP3Mike]

we know that 2024.14 is the roll in for those legacy vehicles that were stuck on 11.x

We do? I haven't seen any confirmation of what FSD version is included in 2024.14.x.

 

[aronth5]

1 nag today after 15 minutes on the highway then drove another 12 minutes to exit ramp, then 2 minute city/street drive with no nags. So 29 minutes with 1 nag. Then 2 other city/street drives around 12 minutes each with no nags on either drive Wow. 12.3.6

Interestingly nags were back to their normal frequency this afternoon when I did several other drives, both highway and city/streets. I should have known it was too good to be true since I hadn't seen others with 12.3.6 say much about nag reduction.

 

[cyborgLIS]

They've always developed multiple version in parallel. They were working and testing V12 for almost a year prior to release, same with V11.

Were they still releasing new versions of v11 after development of v12 began? I wasn't around so am asking.

 

[MP3Mike]

Were they still releasing new versions of v11 after development of v12 began? I wasn't around so am asking.

Yes. (They were even releasing new versions of v11 to some while others were getting new versions of v12.)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Were they still releasing new versions of v11 after development of v12 began? I wasn't around so am asking.

Yes, though it was extremely stagnant sort of progress. You'd have to look through the release notes to see what actual significant changes occurred after April or so of 2023. There may have been some but most of second half of 2023 not much progress seemed to happen IIRC.

 

[aronth5]

WTF. I vote they cancel v12.4 and rename v12.5 to be v12.4.

He’s just trolling everyone at this point. V12.4 is next level, while 12.5 is nother level? Why is there not a serious person in charge of this effort (which has failed at the simplest task of an unprotected left for about three years)?

It’ll be funny if v12.4 still fails on this turn lane selection.

"Simplest task". Really?

• Low visibility requiring significant creep so the B-pillar can see
• Fast cross traffic
• Multiple lane traffic going in both directions
• Limited median space to hang out, requiring careful stoppage to avoid having your rear end hit
• Requires fast acceleration

There is a reason some locals intentionally ignore this UPL.

Would you please share with us what you consider a complex task

 

[willow_hiller]

Thank you, but I still don't completely understand. If 12.5 is in development, I presume that means the final versions of 12.4 and 12.3 are complete. Or are 12.3, 12.4 and 12.5 being developed in parallel? That would seem like a waste of resources but maybe they are not sure which version is better. So they may have created 3 branches to see which approach will prove successful.

Redundancy is a part of how Elon's companies quickly iterate. For example, while SpaceX was launching Starship 11, Starship 12 and 13 were already built and in the high bay.

It takes long enough to build a Starship that waiting for 11 to launch before building 12 and 13 would have been wasted time. I'm sure it's the same with FSD.

 

[EVNow]

Is it for the hype? I just think the continued videos of FSD's inability to perform basic maneuvers are more harmful to Elon's narrative than helpful. Wait until there is something that works and is really stunning!

For one thing I don't think the team agrees that FSD can't perform basic maneuvers. I think your ideas of failure (like where the car stops vs where it should) are probably considered "annoyances" or "fit & finish".

Whatever issues they are fixing need real world verification that only a public release can give. I'm sure a lot of things work well in simulation vs in the real world.

There might also be an order from the top guy about frequency of release. Definitely there is a lot of hype about V12 that Elon and influencers push. Frequent releases help push the narrative of quick progress - a belief in that is necessary for high valuation of TSLA.