No Model X at the NAIAS

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I agree. But, I think they can a lot under their own roof before they get them out on the public roads. It really depends on how many parts are similar to the S. The more in common, the less time they'll need to test outdoors.

More to the point, real world testing doesn't really test much because you don't get as many miles on it as you could if you have, say autopilot driving very fast around test tracks.

(Another benefit of Autopilot/autonomy: if the car can drive itself, you can get loads more testing done.)

 

[timf]

At this point I think we will see a reveal event in February at some point prior to the Q4 2014 earnings release and conference call. I think they will be under great pressure by analysts at that time if there still hasn't been anything shown, and they need to start on-the-road testing sooner rather than later.

 

[Matias]

I agree. But, I think they can a lot under their own roof before they get them out on the public roads. It really depends on how many parts are similar to the S. The more in common, the less time they'll need to test outdoors.

Falcon doors need real life tests in icing conditions and snow.

 

[tdiggity]

Falcon doors need real life tests in icing conditions and snow.

It wouldn't surprise me if there are still issues around that after release. Tesla shown that they do most of their testing in sunny California. The revised defroster vents are a testament to that.

All i'm saying is that it wouldn't surprise me if they haven't done much public testing yet because they want to keep it under wraps still. And, when Tesla has a hard stop date to make, they'll release and figure it out later (defroster vents, door handles, next gen seats, etc).

 

[bonnie]

And, when Tesla has a hard stop date to make, they'll release and figure it out later (defroster vents, door handles, next gen seats, etc).

If that were true, I'd have an almost two-year-old Model X in my garage right now. Clearly they don't just release 'and figure it out later'.

 

[tga]

But, I think they can a lot under their own roof before they get them out on the public roads.

The factory building is 5.5 million square feet (126 acres), and mostly empty. Given that we're talking about pollution free EV's, you could build one heck of an indoor, completely secret test track in the unused space.

Edit: For point of reference, based on eyeballing the map, you could fit the entire NHMS track (oval + outfield) inside 1/2 of the old NUMMI building. Just because the Model X hasn't been seen in public doesn't mean there hasn't been a bunch of road testing.

 

[Earlian]

If that were true, I'd have an almost two-year-old Model X in my garage right now. Clearly they don't just release 'and figure it out later'.

Nice point.

So please Tesla, if you need a beta tester, who is willing to pay for a unfinished car, I'm here.

Didn't worked last year, won't this year.

They want to reach a higher goal with the MX, then they did with the Model S release. Hopefully, the Q3 announcement holds this time.

These postponements, brought me to another level of endurance.

 

[NigelM]

At this point I think we will see a reveal event in February at some point prior to the Q4 2014 earnings release and conference call. I think they will be under great pressure by analysts at that time if there still hasn't been anything shown, and they need to start on-the-road testing sooner rather than later.

Q4 results will be sometime mid-Feb so let's be careful not to go from one wishful-thinking scenario to another. Tesla doesn't need a reveal event to talk to analysts; Tesla will only need to reassure them that it's either on schedule or there's a good reason for pushing the intro back again. I'm itching to see Model X also but a reveal will come when Tesla is ready and able.

What makes anyone think Tesla is not doing road testing already? Just because we haven't seen photographic proof?

 

[adiggs]

I personally am starting to doubt the existence of ANY MX betas, and beginning to doubt if there ever will be a car released.

I can't believe it could be possible to keep it this well hidden.

The Model S production is limited by battery supply, and Tesla sells more of those than they can make. The MX would use the same battery. There just is no incentive to make the vehicle. I think when development of the MX was started, the enduring success of the MS was not anticipated. They thought a new model would be needed to maintain sales, and it just isn't.

I have a Model X reserved, but I don't think I'll ever get it. I won't buy a Model S -- it just isn't what I want.

Tesla is not losing any sleep over it.

I feel your despair BerTX - I've had that thought once or twice over the couple years+ I've been waiting.

Though I agree with the statement / idea that it appears Tesla doesn't NEED Model X to get to Model 3, I disagree with the conclusion that Tesla doesn't actually need or have a deep organizational commitment to the existence and success of Model X. Remember that Tesla's mission is to convert the world to sustainable transport. The big move will happen with Model 3, agreed. However, within the current market, having a sedan limits the range of buyers and users of transport that the company can reach. Worse, the buyers and users that Tesla can reach drive marginally more efficient vehicles.

Though I have no evidence for this, and I believe the real answer is that Tesla is indifferent to whether they well a Model S or an X (once X is shipping in reasonable volume), I believe that if pressed, Tesla would prefer selling a Model X in a constrained environment primarily because a Model X is going to replace / substitute most often for a less efficient vehicle. Each Model X does more for improving overall efficiency. It also does more for moving the world's mental model of what's possible.

I comfort myself with this idea when I'm down, wondering when I'm ever going to see Model X. I'm ready now!

It'll be ready when it's ready, and it'll be ridiculous. And it will do for SUV's what Model S has done for EVs in general and the luxury sedan market - prove you can build a great SUV that happens to be all electric.

The Model X is coming, and I believe that a year from today - 2 years at most - Tesla will be shipping more Model X's than S's, and today's angst will be a distant memory for us all.

 

[bonnie]

Q4 results will be sometime mid-Feb so let's be careful not to go from one wishful-thinking scenario to another.

Amen.

 

[Nevek]

I comfort myself with this idea when I'm down, wondering when I'm ever going to see Model X. I'm ready now!

It'll be ready when it's ready, and it'll be ridiculous. And it will do for SUV's what Model S has done for EVs in general and the luxury sedan market - prove you can build a great SUV that happens to be all electric.

The Model X is coming, and I believe that a year from today - 2 years at most - Tesla will be shipping more Model X's than S's, and today's angst will be a distant memory for us all.

Apparently,

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Who's worried about the X being a no-show?

Hasn't Elon's kids already outgrown the rear facing child seats in the trunk of his S?

So...

Elon needs a car (!)

That makes me not worry at all.


Full disclosure: I would do whatever it took to at all cost avoid buying any SUV myself. Hence I would personally much rather see an S stationwagon. But I would currently also not be able to buy either, and the market is presently [self-censorship] up from an environmental point of view. IMO of course (which also 'happens' to align perfectly with the decades old scientific consensus)...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I personally am starting to doubt the existence of ANY MX betas, and beginning to doubt if there ever will be a car released.

I can't believe it could be possible to keep it this well hidden.

As someone else stated earlier in the thread, it's extremely unlikely that Tesla would outright lie on the 10-Q forms submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Q3 2014 10-Q explicitly states that Alphas were built and that the Beta phase had started in October 2014.

Q4 results will be sometime mid-Feb so let's be careful not to go from one wishful-thinking scenario to another. Tesla doesn't need a reveal event to talk to analysts; Tesla will only need to reassure them that it's either on schedule or there's a good reason for pushing the intro back again. I'm itching to see Model X also but a reveal will come when Tesla is ready and able.

What makes anyone think Tesla is not doing road testing already? Just because we haven't seen photographic proof?

Because Tesla is a high-profile automaker, there's value in spy photos of Tesla products. I think it's more likely than not that the paparazzi are stalking Tesla teams at every turn. I concede that it is possible that Tesla has somehow outsmarted the photographers.

The only report I've seen of a Model X road test was a very vague report from a Model S driver in this forum, who reported seeing a "taller Tesla" driving in the opposite direction on a highway in California.

I am not surprised that Model X did not show at NAIAS. Tesla reveals at its own events.

 

[Doug_G]

I'll bet that right now Tesla is not only testing the MX in the real world, but is scratching their collective heads about why there aren't any spy shots yet.

You know, it's amazing how the Model S can squeak by without being noticed - it doesn't really stand out unless you happen to look right at it. With a casual glance it's just another sedan. Very different from driving the Roadster! Maybe the Model X is out there and no one has happened to notice.

 

[DrDave]

The facility is no longer "mostly unused". Pretty much all buildings are filled, other than the old north paint shop which is where the new one is being built. They really don't have the space for a secret indoor test track.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I'll bet that right now Tesla is not only testing the MX in the real world, but is scratching their collective heads about why there aren't any spy shots yet.

You know, it's amazing how the Model S can squeak by without being noticed - it doesn't really stand out unless you happen to look right at it. With a casual glance it's just another sedan. Very different from driving the Roadster! Maybe the Model X is out there and no one has happened to notice.

If that's the case, then it seems there's an easy fix.

Just 'leak' a couple of 'papped' 'spyshots'...

 

[vgrinshpun]

The facility is no longer "mostly unused". Pretty much all buildings are filled, other than the old north paint shop which is where the new one is being built. They really don't have the space for a secret indoor test track.

@DrDave, based on what information are you indicating that new paint shop is currently being built? Do you have any information on the progress/status of the new body in white line that was supposed to be built in Q1?

Thanks

 

[Yggdrasill]

I disagree. Tesla never was even close to being demand limited. They, too thought they would be, which is why they started international sales far before they should have. They still can't make enough Model S volume to cover the US market, much less the international market.

They were wrong about the sales of the Model S, and I'm sure they are delighted.

I agree Tesla isn't demand limited yet. But theres a big difference in delivering 33k Model S in 2014 vs delivering at a rate of around 100k annual towards the end of 2015. Until the end of the summer, Tesla will be able to ride on a wave of "D"-deliveries, but this momentum will wear off. I really think Tesla needs the Model X towards the end of the year to maintain the growth beyond 100k per year.

 

[bh1783]

Tesla hasn't even reached the full international demand for the model S. They still haven't entered the largest luxury car markets in the world yet (Dubai and Seoul). The fact that they haven't expanded to cities like this suggests they are still demand constrained. In a place like Seoul, gas is $8-10/gallon.

 

[Matias]

Dubai...

I'm affraid Tesla's batteries won't last long in Dubai. Temperatures over 40C or 100F will kill batteries fast.