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  1. B

    Elon Musk the next Bernie madoff?

    Space X will end up subsidizing TSLA if the merger goes through. Elon Musk’s SpaceX will buy another $90 million in solar bonds from Solarcity (SCTY)
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    Elon Musk the next Bernie madoff?

    Solar City executive compensation 2015: $152 million SCTY SolarCity Corp Executive Compensation TSLA executive compensation in comparison: TSLA Tesla Motors Inc Executive Compensation AAPL executive compensation: AAPL Apple Inc Executive Compensation
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    The ethics and business implication of an 8k $ Autopilot

    stick to Skoda or Lada then
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    key point is the Tesla Network - Uber competitor coming next year
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    Tesla International Expansion into Korea

    I dunno, commercial real estate in Seoul is pretty expensive. Their security deposit is at least $1 million. You would think they would have scouted the location a little bit better. Regardless that location should do pretty well. The gas station next door sells gas for $8-10 a gallon.
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    Tesla International Expansion into Korea

    Tesla rents second space to go Gangnam style Second tesla showroom in Cheongdam. Article is incorrect rent is $440k per year not for the entire contract for that neighborhood. 40k per month in rent for 3 floors is pretty cheap for that area. Best area in the city for a Tesla store but horrible...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Equus was discontinued for the G90. Launch was delayed in the states because they sold too many in Korea. Something like 30,000 the first half of 2016. Hyundai Motor’s Genesis EQ900 orders exceed 27,000 units, above this year’s sales goal - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    The German Oberklasse is in bigger trouble than that. Lexus hasn't updated the LS platform in over ten years. Hyundai's Genesis G90/Equus already sells as much as the German Oberklasse in the US. They also lost many of their top designers to Asian car firms: Albert Biermann, Christopher Chapman...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Absolute numbers of vehicles sold is irrelevant. Look at the profit per vehicle. Toyota's per-car profits lap Detroit's Big 3 automakers Even with their high margin trucks, GM's average profit is $654/vehicle. Tesla's profit on a fully loaded P100D is over $50,000.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    LG Chem Opens New Battery Factory In China LG Chem Factory May Have Largest Battery Factory In US - Gas 2 LG Chem plans to build electric car battery factory in Poland - source LG Chem already has battery factories in Korea, China, Michigan and has planned expansion in Poland.
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    How will US Presidential elections affect TSLA?

    U.S. regulators accuse Palantir of bias against Asians Peter Thiel . . .
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    VW on cusp of changing gears

    too late! VW is already dead. This is their current offering in their 5th largest market: Models < Volkswagen Korea 90% drop in VW sales in Korea. Volkswagen, Audi car sales plunge in Korea in August following sale ban - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea Company is banned from selling diesels.
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    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    A big chunk of Tesla's expenses are selling, rent and upkeep of their sales and service centers. Those employees get paid in Euros, the NOK or pound and those salaries aren't adjusted for currency changes. Thus, a strengthening currency will not equate to an exact reduction in selling price.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    LG isn't making any money at $145/kw. Asian companies are notorious for dumping product by manipulating their currency in order to gain market share and force out competitors. That's why LG was so upset at GM for revealing the price. Look up LG/Samsung dumping fines for washers and dryers in...
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    Tesla International Expansion into Korea

    store opening Nov/Dec 2016 in Korea Life Delicious with Pat2Bach~! : ???̹? ???α? 남자들의 놀이터, 자동차 위주로 둘러본 스타필드 하남 후기
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    MBLY will be the next GPRO, hard to base a $10 billion company on a single accessory that can be easily replicated by someone else.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    So at their current prices that would be around a $40 million sale? (probably less since they get a discount for an order that large).
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Fully autonomous driving will need an integrated system where cars communicate with each other. Cars are connected to the grid and can be linked to traffic lights and traffic routing. It will require coordination with cities, transportation networks and the cars themselves to be fully...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Total deliveries are important but more critical to revenue/profit is the number of P100D they can deliver in Sept. A fully loaded P100D tops out at 160k. So the profit margins on that model should be over 40k per unit.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    This is where it gets really messy. Space X has bought Solar City bonds in the past. All three companies are already linked to each other. Problems at SCTY or Space X will impact TSLA as well. This is why Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been buying up SolarCity’s bonds
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I think the analogy is that landing rockets on barges has a lot of upside but it takes resources away from other parts of the company just like buying SCTY has a lot of upside but places unnecessary liquidity pressure on TSLA.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    So that's three failures plus the first two when the company was started. So five total.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    There's a reason these companies are separate entities. As we are seeing spacex impact Tesla today. It's related because it speaks to a pattern of behavior. Taking risks when doing things correctly would be better. Reusable rockets are good but they should work on reliability of the original...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    It would be a nice way to spur demand prior to Model 3 release. All they have to say is that all cars released after the Model 3 will have a pay as you go method. It would give people an incentive to buy the S or X before the Model 3 is released.
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    Payment Method now on Tesla's My Tesla Page [Since Removed]

    Yes this will prevent people from using "camper mode" to sleep at superchargers. Essentially a "bjorn nyland" tax.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Seems like a necessary step. "free" supercharging will always be abused by rent seekers. It doesn't make sense for Tesla to pay the electricity for users who make money from superchargers by charging their vehicles for Uber and Nimber services. You have some Tesla owners that are abusing the...
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    Payment Method now on Tesla's My Tesla Page [Since Removed]

    They could just charge for parking. RFID tags and paid parking by the minute. That would eliminate people sleeping at chargers and occupying spots while not charging.
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    The time frime for full autonomy in inner cities is going to be awhile. Look at the subway in NYC, even that is not fully autonomous(when it should be).
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    I wonder if Tesla will also go with a subscription model for autopilot and data(kind of like onstar does and other car companies do for internet)
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Uber Is Still Trying to Figure Out If It's a Real Business Uber Halts Abu Dhabi Operations as Drivers Detained Here is how ride sharing is being integrated with taxis, car-sharing, and driver services: Kakao’s deal to cut costs for designated drivers Designated drivers in Korea are a big...
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    Has VW (and others?) pushed forward the tipping point for EVs by trashing diesels?!

    Here is VW's current lineup in its 5th largest market:
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Even though autonomous vehicles will reduce total cars, it won't be by such a huge amount. Cars will operate on the same principle that power plants and server capacity do: you need to have capacity for maximum usage. Even with autonomous cars, almost everyone needs a car on New Year's Eve or...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    This is why Uber has a culture problem in non-American markets. I have never taken a taxi in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taipei, or Seoul where the taxi driver was bad. Every driver was professional and spoke the language of the country they were in. There was no need to "rank" a driver for their...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    I think it's a cultural difference. Most countries view taxis as part of the public transportation system. The taxi industry buys domestic cars, hires a ton of people, and the money stays in the community. A lot of a city's identity is linked to its taxis(NYC yellow cabs, London Black cabs...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Taxis are always cheaper to operate than private vehicles. Uber's success is more a reflection of how poor the taxis are in America. There's no incentive for governments to let a foreign tech company interfere with a public good (taxis). It's much easier to develop an Uber clone for existing...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Food delivery will continue. In Korea, every grocery store does delivery. You buy your food, they take your cart and its at your house 30 min later. Same thing is done at department stores and every other place.
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Agreed. Cars are an emotional purchase. Even if people don't need one they will still buy one. Automation and electrification of vehicles will drive the cost of cars down (insurance, gas, maint, taxes, pollution) so this in turn will increase demand as well. Nobody needs a boat but they still...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Wouldn't Amazon pose a credible threat to Uber? Amazon is developing drone delivery and experimenting with their own deliveries. They have the scale and userbase to threaten Uber.
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Ubereats is a copycat of what already exists in Asia. They are already behind existing competitors in the market. Food delivery is a very very low margin business that is often subsidized by the restaurants themselves. In Korea, McDonalds has their own delivery service, they don't charge...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Good points Dave. I think in America Uber makes a lot of sense. There are very few taxis and the few that exist are poorly managed. So Uber's business model works in America because the public transportation infrastructure is very poor. The US doesn't have enough subways, buses or taxis, so...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Uber needs to become a total transportation company to justify it's valuation. It doesn't provide any of the ancillary services or integration that other ride sharing companies currently offer. Uber's outreach efforts in Korea currently consist of workers making fake airbnb accounts and...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    How many of those full time drivers are driving 6 days a week 12 hours a day while running the Uber app? What percent of US Uber drivers run the app 60 hours/week? I agree that Korea is not that important of a market for Uber in the long run, but isn't the precedent set that a social media...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Those points are insightful Dave but if you look at the numbers its a different story in South Korea. In South Korea Uber's competitor has almost 250,000 full time professional drivers using their service(the US has 236,000 taxi drivers in the entire country Taxicabs of the United States -...
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    Tesla International Expansion into Korea

    Probably not a problem. The government wants to go all EV The country is basically an island with no oil. Even though Korea is an oil exporter(it has some of the largest refineries in the world) the pollution is so bad that the governments wants to go all EV. There is a huge gas tax that would...
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    Tesla International Expansion into Korea

    Article in Korea suggests that Tesla may have plans to open 20 stores nationwide in Korea. 테슬라 ‘신세계’ 체인 중심으로 매장 확대한다 (Sorry it's in Korean). Apparently the owner of Shinsegae (Samsung) has a really strong interest in Tesla. He brought a Model S to Korea in 2013 and wants to open 20 Tesla stores...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    This is how delivery drivers in Seoul operate. They might work for 5 or 6 different companies all at once. And their scooters are decked out with 6 smartphones at once. The delivery services in Seoul are probably 5-10 years ahead of what is available in America. Uber isn't in Korea because they...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Uber runs a commodity business where they cannot control the quality of their product(the independent contractor drivers). Tesla will be able to control the entire system, making it a much stronger threat to Uber than Uber is to Tesla. Uber is already years behind current competitors in China...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Korea has a medallion system for taxi's. It's something like 100k to get a taxi license in the country. Tesla will just have to buy medallions from existing owners. VW did this to themselves in Korea. They refused to give any compensation or fix their vehicles so they got shut down. It's the 4th...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    You are right that Tesla needs to be careful with autopilot/autonomous driving in South Korea. Up until a few years ago domestic cars were banned from having cruise control(too many accidents on the highway) Korea has the highest fatality rate per miles driven in the OECD (partially because...
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    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Dave this is how people charge EV's in the building I live in: Charging won't be an issue for early buyers in Korea. Most people will have the car as a 2nd or 3rd vehicle and they won't drive it very far. People in my building just charge their car for free and the building pays for it. Pretty...