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On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
I have a strong feeling that unless you have a MX reservation under #500, you won't be seeing your car in 2015. I know they said they plan to ramp quickly, but so far nothing has worked out timeline-wise for them. They will ship something in late 2015, but it won't be in quantity. Even this I'm starting to have doubts about though. I don't think you will see a MX design studio go live until 3 months before it actually starts to ship. So I'm calling design studio delay to mid-late August. Maybe even later.
When's the next earnings call, August?
When's the next earnings call, August?
That's been my gut for a while now, though I'm not sure even 500 is conservative enough (meaning it might be more like 200).
Tesla could totally surprise me and deliver a ton of Model X in 2015, but I suspect for that to happen the Design Studio for Model S will start reporting "Early January Delivery" (or later) for every configuration you throw at it as of September-ish.
Thats interesting. The video stream didn't show the slide!
Still, I think the words he actually said might be more significant than (what I presume is) a re-used slide from a previous presentation. I'm in the camp that thinks another delay is on the cards, and that significant numbers might not happen till 2016. Because Tesla absolutely want to make this car get as amazing reviews as the Model S did, and so they're right to keep tinkering, it will probably be the best course in the long run.
- Actually, the first Model-S delivers were delayed. They would have been further delayed if it weren't for Tesla's financial issues and the need for them to start selling vehicles to keep them afloat.
- Individual SuperChargers are delayed all the time. However, thats usually the fault of the contractors, not Tesla.
- "D" launch doesn't count, because there was no pre-announcement (no delivery date was pre-announced). It was a surprise event.
- Same is true with "70D"
- I have no knowledge of the details of the 2nd Software launch
But overall, I would say that Tesla is terrible at meeting any dates that they set for themselves. This is probably a direct indication of Elon Musk's character. I can't really complain, as I'm always late too. :redface:
Its true that Model-X sales are not as critical as the Model-S sales were, so they have the luxury of getting it right before first shipments this time. If they tried that with the Model-S, Tesla would have been bankrupt.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
So according to so many here, every word is carefully planned ahead of time ... but the slides would just be recycled, even with inaccurate information?
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
The Model X that Customers receive during 2015 will be vastly better than anything Tesla Motors could have provided in 2013. Critics and Naysayers love to point out missed dates for Tesla Motors. But in the midst of their angst for Elon Musk, they never bother pointing out the reasons for delays.
When someone else brings up those points, and that they make sense/were neccesary/repesented a good tactical choice, Critics and Naysayers predictably play the Tesla Kool-Aid/Musk Fanboi Card. They claim that there is 'no excuse'. They say that a 'more mature' company leadership (someone with their own resume, for instance) would do a much better job of keeping things in line. Me? I call [BOLSHEVIK] on that line of... 'reasoning'.
There is a difference between an excuse and an explanation. Critics and Naysayers demand explanations, then claim they are no excuse -- when they were given an explanation, and didn't ask for an excuse. Either you trust the leadership at Tesla Motors, or you don't.
If you don't trust them, why bother wasting your time or money bellyaching about their efforts? Volkswagen Group will gladly sell you a nice gasoline hybrid or diesel powered Cayenne, Q7, or Tourareg instead of a Model X. Enjoy!
When someone else brings up those points, and that they make sense/were neccesary/repesented a good tactical choice, Critics and Naysayers predictably play the Tesla Kool-Aid/Musk Fanboi Card. They claim that there is 'no excuse'. They say that a 'more mature' company leadership (someone with their own resume, for instance) would do a much better job of keeping things in line. Me? I call [BOLSHEVIK] on that line of... 'reasoning'.
There is a difference between an excuse and an explanation. Critics and Naysayers demand explanations, then claim they are no excuse -- when they were given an explanation, and didn't ask for an excuse. Either you trust the leadership at Tesla Motors, or you don't.
If you don't trust them, why bother wasting your time or money bellyaching about their efforts? Volkswagen Group will gladly sell you a nice gasoline hybrid or diesel powered Cayenne, Q7, or Tourareg instead of a Model X. Enjoy!
Got to love the "Either you're with us or against us" rhetoric.
Like there aren't any shades of grey in-between.
Is that you, George?
You know, it is perfectly all right to discuss Elon's and Tesla's failings while respecting and appreciating their successes. Give it a try sometimes.
MrBoylan
Member
Yes it did (22:10 to 22:45 in the Shareholder meeting video).
It doesn't mean they will hit the target, but at least it's still the same target.
Tesla makes great, next-generation vehicles. But they are not perfect. They don't know how to accurately predict or set a delivery milestone. I may not trust Tesla to accurately predict when they'll deliver my Model-X, but I do trust them to deliver a vehicle that I want and desire. They can have as many excuses or explanations as they want, but what it comes down to is experience. Tesla is not yet an experienced or mature car company. Hopefully, when they become such, they won't lose their drive and innovation.
Yes it did (22:10 to 22:45 in the Shareholder meeting video).
It doesn't mean they will hit the target, but at least it's still the same target.
Thats weird, when I watch the video, this is what I see:
(sorry couldn't resist, my apologies)
Nubo
Test Mule
I trust them to produce a fantastic vehicle. However, the constant slippages do indicate some lack of organization or cohesive planning. Up to this point they can get away with it, as they are selling to a demographic that is willing to wait for something special. This may change with the Model 3 if they intend on impressing consumers in that market. But who knows, maybe the Tesla Mystique will carry over there too. Sometimes a perceived shortage heightens desirability. It's a tightrope though. As far as the bellyaching, that's half the fun of waiting!
@Red Sage,
I don't regard myself as a critic. Having worked on a few deliverables over the years, I believe that scheduling is a tough problem. And it's REALLY tough for a product that has never before been delivered. And it's even TOUGHER when you want to set a very high standard for that product out of the gate, as opposed to some of the current delivery philosophies that emphasize early release, quick feedback loops, "fast fail".
I very much prefer for Tesla to ship it when it's right. (Although, IMHO, they seem to hit a 95+% level and then iterates themselves after that, especially on the software.)
What I wish they could figure out is how to talk about their delivery dates differently. The problem is not *what* they are delivering, or even *when*; the problem is that they blithely announce dates that repeatedly turn out not to be the case, leading to cynicism among all the communities that care.
Alan
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Even so-called mature companies have a tough time delivering a brand new product when they say they will. See also: Airbus, Boeing, <insert your favorite car company here>, etc.
Even given the re-use of Model S technologies, I'd say the X qualifies as brand-spanking-new.
Alan
I don't regard myself as a critic. Having worked on a few deliverables over the years, I believe that scheduling is a tough problem. And it's REALLY tough for a product that has never before been delivered. And it's even TOUGHER when you want to set a very high standard for that product out of the gate, as opposed to some of the current delivery philosophies that emphasize early release, quick feedback loops, "fast fail".
I very much prefer for Tesla to ship it when it's right. (Although, IMHO, they seem to hit a 95+% level and then iterates themselves after that, especially on the software.)
What I wish they could figure out is how to talk about their delivery dates differently. The problem is not *what* they are delivering, or even *when*; the problem is that they blithely announce dates that repeatedly turn out not to be the case, leading to cynicism among all the communities that care.
Alan
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Even so-called mature companies have a tough time delivering a brand new product when they say they will. See also: Airbus, Boeing, <insert your favorite car company here>, etc.
Even given the re-use of Model S technologies, I'd say the X qualifies as brand-spanking-new.
Alan
Merrill
Merrill
Yes, although I hate the waiting and the lack of information about the Model X I also realize that this company is very young and is producing something that I thought 10 years ago was impossible. Every time I drive my Model S I pinch my self and think about what kind of manufacturing process it takes to start with nothing and deliver not only a one of a kind vehicle but one that does not have an ICE under the hood. Having said that I'm getting somewhat disenchanted about when I will see the real Model X and be able to drive it. I have only been waiting 1 year and give everyone who has been waiting even longer lots of credit. Sometimes I just want to forget about the fact that there will be a Tesla SUV and wake up one day and have the design center online.
Alan,
Elon tends to agree with you. He was recorded as saying that the Model-X had so many new innovations over the Model-S, it was like starting over (I'm paraphrasing here). He sounded a bit exhausted recollecting the design process of the Model-X. He then continued to say that Tesla was going to start simple with the Model-3 and then iterate over time, rather than try to design the perfect car from the start (again, I'm paraphrasing, as I can't find that video).
Have any of the California participants here heard more about the proposed halving of sales tax on EVs? The last I heard was when Phil Ting brought it up again in March. I don't see anything online. Depending on whether it's adopted, and the effective date, a push into 2016 could save California buyers ~$3k. Not mind-bending, but certainly a welcome consolation prize.
Nubo
Test Mule
Haven't heard of it. But I'd be really surprised if it ever benefited Tesla buyers (at least S and X buyers). It seems to me the pendulum is swinging in the direction of making any subsidies or credits means-based.
aesculus
Still Trying to Figure This All Out
I see that the image of the MX shown above has rear view mirrors. So I guess we can confirm that the rear view cameras will not make it to production then?
goneskiian
Active Member
While us here in WA are losing our sales tax exemption at the end of this month. I reserved an X when I did planning to have it delivered in time to take advantage of that exemption. Oh well.
Merrill
Merrill
As of May 28th the bill (AB945) was in committee and under submission, what ever that means.
