Model S/X deliveries drop off cliff, down 56%

[ucmndd]

Tesla deliveries fall—especially for high-end Model S and X

The S/X is dead and can’t be refreshed soon enough. Even the massive price decreases don’t seem to be enticing new buyers. Now what? We all sorta saw this coming but less than half the deliveries of the prior quarter is way worse than I was expecting.

 

[headcase]

Until other competitors catch up with the technology of these cars, I don't consider these models "dead" by any means.

 

[whitex]

Refresh will not solve it. Model S & X had an artificially inflated market size as the only viable EV. Today, there is Model 3, not to mention competition is catching up. This is more of an expected correction. Had Model 3 been available since 2012, a significant number of Model S buyers would have opted for it.

 

[ucmndd]

Until other competitors catch up with the technology of these cars, I don't consider these models "dead" by any means.

I mean, I agree, but that doesn’t mean people are buying them. I already have one and have zero incentive to upgrade. That’s a problem from my perspective.

 

[ucmndd]

Refresh will not solve it. Model S & X had an artificially inflated market size as the only viable EV. Today, there is Model 3, not to mention competition is catching up. This is more of a expected correction. Had Model 3 been available since 2012, a significant number of Model S buyers would have opted for it.

Good point. ~50k/year might be a more sustainable production volume moving forward. I’m certainly an example of someone who stretched into a model S because there were no alternatives.

 

[whitex]

I mean, I agree, but that doesn’t mean people are buying them. I already have one and have zero incentive to upgrade. That’s a problem from my perspective.

I have no incentive to upgrade either. Besides no more sport suspension, the way the Elon is going all in on "all controls on a single tablet" isn't going to get me to buy more. One thing I learned after driving a Model S for while, I appreciate physical buttons for common tasks, so I can perform them without taking my eyes off the road.

 

[terrywhite]

The problem with Model S as I see it is that there isn’t enough difference in the car itself to justify the price against Model 3. I configured a new 3 and S with everything I’d want. The S was $97,000 the 3 was $61,000. If I had to make that call today I’d go with the 3 as I just can’t see $36,000 worth of difference.

 

[mrbulk]

I would also say not to discount the fact that All major car makers are down on sales. Maybe we’re all waiting on full self driving car hailing?

Actually to me the S class body is an iconic shape, and still aspirationally beautiful in so many ways (when considering the eye of beholder, of course), but if a sleek refresh of the car accompanied a redesign of things inside/underneath such as using 2170 cells, making the battery pack smaller and hopefully lighter, match the charging speed of the Model 3, etc. then a similar but just more sleeked up version of the S body to distinguish it would be enough for me to get another S...unless VW does indeed build out a comparable nationwide charging network. Only then might it be a game changer.

 

[tljdesign]

The problem with Model S as I see it is that there isn’t enough difference in the car itself to justify the price against Model 3. I configured a new 3 and S with everything I’d want. The S was $97,000 the 3 was $61,000. If I had to make that call today I’d go with the 3 as I just can’t see $36,000 worth of difference.

We need a 350+ mile range S/X and a 450+ mile range S/X.

S needs a redesigned back end. Interiors need some door pockets.

And it still needs to be 15% cheaper.

 

[vickh]

lower prices soon?

 

[seclinton]

This is the hard part. I agree, why update when if you can/want to live without AP, a good CPO can be had for less than a new Model 3. For some weird reasons EV depreciation is a killer, but a boon for the conscious buyer. I crashed and totaled my 2013 P85 in Jan 2018, and just pulled the trigger on a 2014 P85+ replacement in every way the same, except the plus upgrade and 2013-->2014 updates. (think parking sensors now). I pick up next week for <1/2 of that Model 3 going for $61k. There's no incentive to buy new at this point when you can grab a P90DL for $80K or less.

Tesla is safe because: nation wide fast charging network
Tesla is no viable because: someday VW/Ford/GM/Toyota/Nissan will release a real long range EV coupled with said charging network? Not until an auto company buys up Chargepoint or EvGo or something like that. That's the best bet against tesla when it happens. Duh VW are you listening?

Sales will fall off until a refresh in design or feature set pushes forward. Again, there will always be nostalgia for the original nosecone. The trick is that the Model S/X lines actually turn a profit for Tesla at this point.

 

[Mark_T]

Model 3 is a saloon, that isn't an alternative to the S.

Model Y may be but still need more details on that one.

 

[Munka]

While I agree that the Model 3 is likely the main reason people are opting out of the S I don't think that means the S is flawed.

The S is a large luxury sedan (technically a hatch back) the model 3 is a mid size sedan with less emphasis on the luxury at a cheaper cost.

Getting concerned that the 3 outsells the S is like comparing the bmw m3 to m7 or Audi a4 to the a7. Etc etc.

I think they'd be better to focus on some of their new products before a refresh. Perhaps retrofit an S or X production line to make the pickup? And another for the roadster?

The S will get new motors and an interior refresh, but my bet is that will be it until all current known products are released and bugs ironed out.

One last point. The roadster will become the flagship. So that might fill some of the perceived Gap?

 

[ramonneke]

The plunged, because they rocketed late 2018. Buyers notice the sudden insane price but and that doesn't give faith for new buyers to buy an S/X as such huge price cuts cause massive unaccounted depreciation. The public will first need first stabilize the S/X prices as they are currently too volatile and after that consumers will buy the S/X again.

The S/X only needs a CCS plug in Europe, it doesn't really need faster charging if it can do 150kW with V3 SuC's. More is convenient, but not mandatory. Most people will charge at home or work anyway.

 

[whitex]

Model 3 is a saloon, that isn't an alternative to the S.

No, but the S was the alternative to waiting for the Model 3 for 6 years, hence it picked up a bunch of demand from people who chose a Model S now vs Model 3 years from now. Now that both are available, it's not that the Model S buyers decided Model 3 is better, it's just that Model 3 customers stopped buying a Model S.

 

[cwerdna]

I would also say not to discount the fact that All major car makers are down on sales.

In the US, sure, most are down by not by as the S and X are down: UPDATE 4-U.S. March and Q1 auto sales drop in weak start to 2019.

 

[Shock-On-T]

Refresh will not solve it. Model S & X had an artificially inflated market size as the only viable EV. Today, there is Model 3, not to mention competition is catching up. This is more of an expected correction. Had Model 3 been available since 2012, a significant number of Model S buyers would have opted for it.

I'm one of them.
Got an S while sick of waiting for M3 here in Australia.

 

[wdolson]

The problem with Model S as I see it is that there isn’t enough difference in the car itself to justify the price against Model 3. I configured a new 3 and S with everything I’d want. The S was $97,000 the 3 was $61,000. If I had to make that call today I’d go with the 3 as I just can’t see $36,000 worth of difference.

I agree, the Model S is worth more than the Model 3, but not at that price difference. It's about a $10K more expensive car at best. I love my Model S, but if the Model 3 had been available, I would have bought one instead. It is much closer to my original price target.

The Model S dominated the large luxury car market for several years because it's a very small niche and a lot of people were drawn into the segment because they wanted that particular car. I would never consider any other car in that niche.

The Model S and X were helped at the end of last year with the last option to get free supercharging and the end of the $7500 tax credit. The Model S especially is a car layout that is becoming obsolete, in a size that is not terribly popular, even in the US, it's a design at the end of it's cycle, and it's overpriced for what you get compared to the M3.

If Tesla does do a refresh this year and rolls in a lot of stuff from the Model 3 as I expect they will (the first refresh was bringing a number of Model X features to the S), Tesla may be able to offer the Model S at a more modest premium over the Model 3 and still be highly profitable.

In the US, sure, most are down by not by as the S and X are down: UPDATE 4-U.S. March and Q1 auto sales drop in weak start to 2019.

The first quarter of the year is always the poorest for car sales and the economy is softening. Expensive durable goods are usually the first segment of the economy to go soft when there is a downturn. People hold off big purchases waiting to see what the economy will do. Between trade wars and Brexit there is even more uncertainty in the mix.

IMO one of the two scenarios for Tesla failing at this point is a very bad economic downturn. The other would be a very big error on their part like the Model 3 getting known as the 21st century Pinto or something. At this point that probably isn't going to happen. Tesla should be able to surf a normal recession, but a repeat of 2008 could wipe out all 4 US auto makers.

 

[DanCar]

Should we list all of the Model 3 advantages like faster supercharging? More energy efficient. Costs less to charge up. Lately gets firmware updates sooner.

 

[Mark_T]

I get that some purchased an S because they couldn't get a 3 at the time but if you remove that segment of the owner group, for the those who purchased an S for the looks and load capacity the 3 isn't a viable alternative.

Similarly, if you start taking design elements from the 3 into the S, you remove what a lot of people like about the S and dislike in the 3.

There is no perfect solution here, but there is nothing wrong with the S reducing in over-all numbers as the 3 ramps up and you'll see something similar when the Y arrives as we;;, both for the S and the 3 as there will be people right now taking a 3 because they can't get a Y yet and can't afford an S...

As for the price difference, check out the Audi A7 vs A3 for example... There is room for the S to command a significant price increase over the 3, just don't make it look like a larger 3/Y