Lurking on Tesla Short/Bear Websites

[tftf]

When was it supposed to come in 2015? I don't remember this? In regard to delays my window is actually hopeful of a late 2016 launch and planning for a late 2018 launch

For example here: Tesla Says All-Electric 3-Series Competitor Due By 2015

The timeline made sense back in 2011 and 2012. Many will remember that the Model X was supposed to ship by 2013 at that time, the Model 3 (Bluestar) was supposed to arrive 2-3 years later (2015).

I follow TSLA since around 2007-2008 and I have seen so many dates slip and promises made (I could understand these issues much better when Tesla was a small private company with cash-flow issues before the IPO) that I became quite cynical of their deadlines and announcements...adding 3-4 years to all their dates usually gives a good indication when products will actually arrive.

Anyway, I will be back and update my Model 3/other TSLA estimates once the Model X price is known and the X car actually starts shipping (maybe Tesla will also unveil the Model 3 design and more details this year).

 

[chickensevil]

For example here: Tesla Says All-Electric 3-Series Competitor Due By 2015

The timeline made sense back in 2011 and 2012. Many will remember that the Model X was supposed to ship by 2013 at that time, the Model 3 (Bluestar) was supposed to arrive 2-3 years later (2015).

I follow TSLA since around 2007-2008 and I have seen so many dates slip and promises made (I could understand these issues much better when Tesla was a small private company with cash-flow issues before the IPO) that I became quite cynical of their deadlines and announcements...adding 3-4 years to all their dates usually gives a good indication when products will actually arrive.

Anyway, I will be back and update my Model 3/other TSLA estimates once the Model X price is known and the X car actually starts shipping (maybe Tesla will also unveil the Model 3 design and more details this year).

Thank you for the article. I figured it was a truthful statement, I just couldn't recall the details. I think when the X slipped back any hope that the model 3 would hold a timeline didn't make sense until they get the X out the door. Since it is likely shared resources working on new designs so the X of course takes priority. I think the vision has shifted as well because everyone (including Tesla) has been surprised by the demand of the Model S. This is what I largely attribute to the majority of the date slips on the X itself. And then when they realized the Model 3 couldn't make it without the gigafactory which caused additional delays on that front (as we are now tied to the timeline of the factory coming online).

Delays (or potential delays) tend to be fair criticism of Tesla, and I generally don't take issue with most of those comments simply because it is perhaps their greatest weakness. What I do take issue with is all the other twisting of the truth and downright lies that people push... which on the surface seem like they hold merit but quickly fall away as soon as you even begin to cross check the information for validity. There are only a handful of shorts that don't heavily rely on these tactics to scare people into selling... and that's quite sad.

I rather welcome well thought out and reasoned negative articles and comments on Tesla because it helps keep my bias in check. Unfortunately, I don't see that very often.

 

[Auzie]

Delays (or potential delays) tend to be fair criticism of Tesla, and I generally don't take issue with most of those comments simply because it is perhaps their greatest weakness. What I do take issue with is all the other twisting of the truth and downright lies that people push... which on the surface seem like they hold merit but quickly fall away as soon as you even begin to cross check the information for validity. There are only a handful of shorts that don't heavily rely on these tactics to scare people into selling... and that's quite sad.

I rather welcome well thought out and reasoned negative articles and comments on Tesla because it helps keep my bias in check. Unfortunately, I don't see that very often.

Imo delays are the result of Tesla shooting themselves in the foot. They are on a steep learning curve regarding making good cars, scaling up manufacturing and establishing reliable yet efficient supply chain.

Tesla needs to communicate what is coming, however there is no need to tie themselves with unrealistic timeframes. They are in uncharted territory and there are no industry benchmarks that they must follow.

As time goes by and they stumble across more problems their communication will improve to more accurately reflect their projections.

I fail to see why 'missed' timelines bother people so much.

 

[dha]

For example here: Tesla Says All-Electric 3-Series Competitor Due By 2015

I don't mean nitpick but the article you linked does not prove that anybody from Tesla ever claimed that the Model 3 would be shipping in 2015.

From your link:

[Tesla's affordable car], according to Tesla’s chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen (via autocar), will be a BMW 3-series competitor that the Californian automaker hopes to launch as early as 2015.

So your link is citing a second-hand autocar source for 2015.

The autocar link here is broken: http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/tesla%E2%80%99s-electric-3-series-rival-%E2%80%98-sale-2015%E2%80%99

Google's cache is here: Tesla’s electric 3-series rival ‘on sale in 2015’ | Autocar

No direct quote from Franz at all indicating a timeline for Gen III release. Only reference to 2015 is in editorialized headline and lede: "[Model 3] could launch as early as 2015" which for all we know could've been Franz' timeline for a prototype.

Just some really sloppy journalism from greencarreports. They link to an autocar article with no direct quote from Tesla management indicating 2015, and they spin "could launch as early as 2015" into "Due by 2015"

 

[tftf]

I just picked the first link I found, I'm pretty sure about the 2015 promise.

There are many sources about original launch timeframes for the Model S for 2010-2011 and for the Model 3 (or Bluestar at that time) by 2015. This was later changed to 2016; it's still 2017 according to their latest filings. I'm pretty sure the 3 will slip to at least 2018 at this point given the delays with the X.

This is far from one single claim or missed date coming out of Tesla that I picked out.

For example, the third-generation car was once supposed to ship for $20-30k:

Elon Musk Envisions Tesla Electric Car as Low as $20K Tech News and Analysis

Do I hold up this interview from 2008 against Tesla almost seven years later? No, but it shows Tesla has a history of overpromising on key deadlines and prices.

As I noted above, I could better understand this behavior from a small, private start-up in a precarious position (especially in late 2008) looking for investors and fighting for its survival. But Tesla is now a public company with a huge market cap and various obligations to bondholders who invested billions etc.

I don't think these continued promises and over-optimistic projections that can't be kept help their credibility going forward.

 

[Auzie]

I just picked the first link I found, I'm pretty sure about the 2015 promise.

Do I hold up this interview from 2008 against Tesla almost seven years later? No, but it shows Tesla has a history of overpromising on key deadlines and prices.

As I noted above, I could better understand this behavior from a small, private start-up in a precarious position (especially in late 2008) looking for investors and fighting for its survival. But Tesla is now a public company with a huge market cap and various obligations to bondholders who invested billions etc.

I don't think these continued promises and over-optimistic projections that can't be kept help their credibility going forward.

I agree with you that Tesla may benefit if it were more cautious about projections. However, if projections were made in good faith and eventually fulfilled, then there may be some benefit in releasing information about coming products even if it is difficult to get the time right.

 

[tftf]

Here's an additional source about the original Model 3 schedule. Interview from September 2009 with the CEO himself:

I think the sports car is cool, but really we want the mass-market car, that’s what we want to get to, as soon as we possibly can. We’re trying to grow as fast as we can to do that. I feel pretty confident we can get to a compelling sub-$30,000 car in five years. And one thing I should also point out is although the sedan will be $50,000, because the cost of electricity is so much less than the cost of gasoline and you’ll be able to lease our car or finance our car, buying our Model S will be equivalent to buying maybe about a $35,000 gasoline car, when you take into account the lease payments of a gasoline car versus the electric car and the cost of electricity versus gasoline. So it’s more affordable than it first seems. Even so, we’re working as hard as possible to get to that third generation car.

Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk | On Point with Tom Ashbrook , towards the very end of the podcast

September 2009 plus five years would even be late 2014.

I'm not sure what the 'secret project' was about that was supposed to accelerate this launch schedule on top of that (same interview)...

Musk added that Tesla has “a potential secret project that could advance that schedule, but I can’t talk about that because we don’t know if it will transpire.”

Teslas Elon Musk on a sub-$30,000 electric car | On Point with Tom Ashbrook

Anyway, that's all history, but it shows Tesla a long list of overly optimistic projections. Not everything a bear says or every argument he makes is simply 'FUD'.

I will now await the Model X launch and pricing to update my projections for the Model 3.

 

[chickensevil]

I think most people give them a pass on some of their delays because I would rather them tell us something rather than keeping us totally in the dark. Just keep updating us on the timeframe and if it slips, you better have a good reason, but let us know that reason and give us a new time.

So far, all the major slips have had good reason (at least in my mind). So I don't fault them for anything.

For example getting the S out on time, a lot of that had to do with supply issues. It was well known that they put in an order for like 1,000 of something and then would only get like 10 of them. The second issue regarding timing came down to them trying to figure out manufacturing. The big players have all been making cars for around 100 years, so of course when they set out to make a new car they don't generally have major manufacturing hurdles. I think this is one of the biggest issues (and you can look at this negatively and that would be fair) is their ability to properly ramp up their volume. I think volume ramping and factory expansion has been their biggest blunder of all. Each time they try to make a major leap forward in volume it is always met with hiccups and hurdles.

As far as the initial X delays. A lot of this was because they were originally expecting global demand of the S to be at 20k a year. Now it is pretty much 20k for just the US without even breaking a sweat (although our current delivery numbers puts it at 17k, there is a lot they could do to push that number up by 3k in the US if they wanted... plenty of US markets left un-tapped). So the X was originally critical to them getting to the Model 3 since they needed an extra 20k production. At one point there was even talks of doing a coupe on the Gen 2 platform, which has never materialized, although there are totally some old concept photos of a 2 door model S looking car. Anyway, point is, the global S demand is already higher than they even needed to make it to the Model 3 so they pushed off the X largely for that reason. Again, coming down to the same core problem of ramping up the factory, this is causing issues with them getting the X out the door, more than anything. Yes, they are taking their time on the design as well, it isn't like they don't have plenty of time, since they still haven't fully stretched out the Model S demand, so if they made the X right now, today, it would take away from S sales, simply due to a lack of production capacity.

As I said previously, the Gen 3 platform has been delayed, again, because they largely don't have capacity to handle the expected demand for such a car. If they were originally expecting about 100k Gen 3 (I don't know, just guessing and extrapolating based on what they were originally thinking about for the Model S) and you realized that you had room for at least 300k+ Gen 3 (on top of everything else) wouldn't you think stop and wonder where you were going to get all the batteries from? Panasonic was on a path to be able to support like 150k cars (give or take) from their capacity... way south of what they really need.

About the price changes. They technically got the 50k car out the door with the 40kWh battery. If they released a similar 150 mile range Gen 3 I have no doubt that they could get a price around 25-30k which would be about half the price of the original 50k car. But because 1: demand is going to be there for the higher price. 2: margins are better on the larger pack cars and extra options. 3: 150 miles really is kinda crappy (although still better than the best competition currently)... and the list of reasons can go on... There is no reason to release such an animal. The 200+ mile range car is going to require a closer to 35k starting price.

Anyway, Yes, you can legitimately complain about all of the above. And I don't particularly take issue with those complaints (generally speaking), what I hate is when people try to make up random crap to throw at Tesla just to scare people off and that is usually what I see most people call out as FUD. I wish we could have reasonable arguments/discussions about real problems and issues, but instead you have people talking about "demand is a problem" (and making up BS numbers to support that argument) or "XXXX new car is going to be a Tesla killer" (Oh, look... production date maybe of 2017-2020... yeah, real scared)... It is arguments like these that really frustrate me, because I can't have a serious discussion about ACTUAL problems regarding Tesla and trying to analyze if they have a real path forward to fixing those problems and if that timeline coincides with something that would make investment worthwhile.

 

[Auzie]

The second issue regarding timing came down to them trying to figure out manufacturing. The big players have all been making cars for around 100 years, so of course when they set out to make a new car they don't generally have major manufacturing hurdles. I think this is one of the biggest issues (and you can look at this negatively and that would be fair) is their ability to properly ramp up their volume. I think volume ramping and factory expansion has been their biggest blunder of all. Each time they try to make a major leap forward in volume it is always met with hiccups and hurdles.

CE, I agree with all your statements above except this one that I quoted from your post. Imo they have done exceptional job in ramping up their volume in record time. The actual timeframe taken to do the job is exceptional. The only reason some people perceive it as a blunder is because of a self-prescribed unrealistic timeframe.

Also, all car manufacturers have similar manufacturing hurdles on a daily basis. Hurdles are inherent in the process and can not be engineered out, they will never go away. The hurdles arise from having to juggle the need to keep extremely lean process with low inventories in balance with having reliable complex plant fully occupied and churning out quality product. What will go away with learning is unrealistic timeframes.

 

[stoebs]

I would further Auzie's comments with the reminder that Tesla's direct sales business model is unlike anything that any of the existing Auto Manufacturer's use. If Chevy misses Volt production by 2,000 units one quarter but makes it up in the next, nobody would even notice, because you have hundreds (thousands?) of units out on dealer lots that act as a buffer. When we have an entire community here that crowdsources P85D delivery times down the the nearest hour, any production delays are under a microscope that the traditional MFGs would never have to deal with.

 

[chickensevil]

Whether it is unrealistic time frames or not at the very least these are the more legitimate complaints against Tesla which was pretty much all I was trying to get at. I obviously give them a pass on all of it because I understand that manufacturing is hard enough as it is and Tesla is really new to manufacturing their own products that themselves have thousands of parts and take DAYS to build from start to finish. I get that, which is why I don't really complain about it, it was just in response to TFTF's comments more or less about us calling everything FUD. Which is simply not true.

So please don't let anything I posted detract you from Tesla as that was not my intent. But it does help to understand potential weaknesses in the company so you can have a better grasp on their future valuation. Tesla themselves admitted that it was fair to criticize their production since that is really what they need to boost. It is fantastic that they have higher demand than they ever dreamed of, now they need to work on servicing that demand (which they are).

Anyway, I just wish this was what people focused their efforts on instead of downright lies about the company...

 

[Jack6591]

Three Triggers That Could Spark A Selloff In Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA)

If a media outlet subtly incites action that would cause a stock price to decline, is it an egregious violation of SEC rules?

 

[Johan]

The Bears will now push hard to spin the story of how the GM Bolt will kill Tesla. Smart move from GM stating they plan to sell it at $30-35k with a "200 mile battery" - if they mean it I'm sure they'll be loosing money but it might be worth it PR wise.

 

[Robert.Boston]

The Bears will now push hard to spin the story of how the GM Bolt will kill Tesla. Smart move from GM stating they plan to sell it at $30-35k with a "200 mile battery" - if they mean it I'm sure they'll be loosing money but it might be worth it PR wise.

While I agree that the FUD press will say this, it's about as sensible as saying that the existence of the Ford Focus puts BMW's 3-series out of business. The bigger story is that Ford feels it worthwhile to tout this planned vehicle. That says a lot about how tesla is disrupting the established car makers..

 

[tftf]

The Bears will now push hard to spin the story of how the GM Bolt will kill Tesla. Smart move from GM stating they plan to sell it at $30-35k with a "200 mile battery" - if they mean it I'm sure they'll be loosing money but it might be worth it PR wise.

The GM Bolt is just one of many longer-range EVs coming. Not the lone GM Bolt model will put pressure on TSLA, cheaper batteries supplied to various global car makers (LG, Panasonic and Samsung have signed up most large car makers interested in EVs and PHEVs) will.

Elon Musk may get his wish, there will be more and more EVs and PHEVs sold over the coming years (although I expect BEVs to gain more marketshare only slowly, in the single digits until at least 2025) but more sales may have the opposite effect on Tesla stock.

The more competition, the more margin squeezes and price fights/rebates, especially once Tesla launches the cheaper Model 3.

Which results in a return to the mean for Tesla's share price and overall valuation in my opinion. Thanks for all the fish.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The GM Bolt is just one of many longer-range EVs coming. Not the lone GM Bolt model will put pressure on TSLA, cheaper batteries supplied to various global car makers (LG, Panasonic and Samsung have signed up most large car makers interested in EVs and PHEVs) will.

Elon Musk may get his wish, there will be more and more EVs and PHEVs sold over the coming years (although I expect BEVs to gain more marketshare only slowly, in the single digits until at least 2025) but more sales may have the opposite effect on Tesla stock.

The more competition, the more margin squeezes and price fights/rebates, especially once Tesla launches the cheaper Model 3.

Which results in a return to the mean for Tesla's share price and overall valuation in my opinion. Thanks for all the fish.

How can car with the maximum planned production of 20K a year hurt Tesla Model 3 sales with planned yearly production of 500K a year?

Chevy Cruise is much cheaper than a BMW 3 series, but nobody in their mind would suggest that Chevy Cruise is threatening to BMW 3 series.

 

[32no]

The GM Bolt is just one of many longer-range EVs coming. Not the lone GM Bolt model will put pressure on TSLA, cheaper batteries supplied to various global car makers (LG, Panasonic and Samsung have signed up most large car makers interested in EVs and PHEVs) will.

Elon Musk may get his wish, there will be more and more EVs and PHEVs sold over the coming years (although I expect BEVs to gain more marketshare only slowly, in the single digits until at least 2025) but more sales may have the opposite effect on Tesla stock.

The more competition, the more margin squeezes and price fights/rebates, especially once Tesla launches the cheaper Model 3.

Which results in a return to the mean for Tesla's share price and overall valuation in my opinion. Thanks for all the fish.

Really? Name one car that is targeting the Tesla Model 3 other than the Bolt. Everything that is being promised now for 2018-2021 is all "competition" for the Model S. Lets get real here: its really tough to compete with the Model S now, and will only be tougher when 2018 rolls around.

 

[Auzie]

Really? Name one car that is targeting the Tesla Model 3 other than the Bolt. Everything that is being promised now for 2018-2021 is all "competition" for the Model S. Lets get real here: its really tough to compete with the Model S now, and will only be tougher when 2018 rolls around.

Just to add to this argument: model S is a great car as it is now, but it is highly likely that today's model S will be inferior to future model S.

Tesla is on a steep learning curve regarding its control software for their dual motor drivetrain. That D drivetrain is an uncharted territory. By the time competition models come out, Tesla engineers will have at least a few years of learning and development built into all Tesla's models, including model 3. Having cars on the road and releasing incremental improvements via software upgrades rapidly accelerates the learning.

In summary, all this learning will position Tesla far ahead of the competition in respect to performance.

The competition is still focusing most of their R&D on ice.

 

[chickensevil]

Range will likely keep going up being the current levels until we achieve recharge times of around 10 minutes and we get 300 miles of real range on the car at highway speeds. Someway or another I am certain tesla will go for range improvements and would surprise me if one thing to keep people hooked on the model s come 2017 is a longer take choice than on offer from the model 3. Which puts them ahead of the planned competition as well.

 

[AZC]

Ok, the next one is a real doozy. Alberto Zaragoza Comendador is quite the character, he writes that pretty much everything Tesla does is a hoax or fraud, and the largest of which is the battery swap. He has a blog which is really extreme, and a seeking alpha page.

Talk is cheap and discussions can get boring, so why don't we put money on the table? I'd bet $100 on each of these things.

Before the end of 2015:
-The vast majority of Superchargers still won't have solar panels. I know, I know, even if all of them had panels it would be irrelevant, but still. Most of them won't have panels.
-The vast majority of Superchargers still won't have batteries. (I thought you could survive a zombie apocalypse thanks to these things - Elon's words).
-The Model S won't be able to change lanes just by tapping the turn signal.
-The Model S won't be even one pound lighter than when it launched in 2012. In fact, it will be heavier - although Tesla will try to hide this fact and obscure data.
-Their retractable metal gear solid snake will still be a tweet.
-Their amphibious car won't be a thing.
-Tesla will not make any significant money (whether you define it as revenue or profits) from energy storage. I'll let you define "significant". Oh, and if Tesla refuses to disclose financials about this I win - if they boast about their storage business then they have to show the numbers.

Some of Tesla's projects are really for the long term so let's give them a few more years. Before the end of 2019:
-The Hyperloop won't have begun construction.
-Tesla will continue to run its factory, offices, etc. off the grid like everybody else rather than off batteries.
-Their cars will be unable to drive themselves "90% of the time". (He actually claimed this for 2015).


You may have noticed I made no mention of the patents. While there is no doubt it was a hoax in 2014, the thing could change any time - perhaps someone is actually interested in Tesla's patents and will get to use them for free. Though the guy keeps insulting our intelligence (3:14).
"Musk doesn't seem to know who has taken up Tesla's offer to open patents"


Finally, there is the battery swap. I bet Tesla will not do a road trip demoing the future (200 miles + swap + 200 miles). Certainly not with journalists inside the vehicle. I'll let you choose the deadline for that.