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How many will look into the F-150 Lightning?

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Your second point will be solved before the first.


Whoooaaaa there’s a Supercharger near Placerville, CA that is open to non-Tesla charging! @h2ofun needs to get a F150 lightning and charge there ASAP.

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Watch the investor's day video. Tesla is not only monitoring Superchargers for functionality but also for 'the charging experience'. Meaning they are looking to reduce congestion by routing cars to less congested sites, TOD pricing. More to come.

While I agree with TOD pricing as a supply/demand maximizing play when the source electricity costs fluctuate, I disagree with it in terms of controlling the demand of EVs to recharge while travelling. This is going to create a rather bad experience for folks who aren't able to internalize the pricing behavior as a good thing.

For example, normal petrol stations don't do TOD pricing. They could (with their oligopoly power) claim that fuel from 7am-to-10am and 4pm-to-7pm is in more demand, and collude to raise fuel prices 20% at those times. But they don't. I think customers transitioning from ICE to EV may be put off by TOD pricing if it is done to control the demand of electricity in order to manage "congestion at the pumps/plugs".

It's going to be a tough enough pill to swallow when the TOU pricing is dictated by the commodity/electricity supply costs.
 
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Movie theatres shave always done TOD pricing. Nothing new.
Generally the cheapest generation sources are put online first. Then the more expensive. Hence TOD pricing which is actually congestion pricing. It's just that the daily pattern is pretty consistent.

We're talking about cars man. ICE drivers who encounter TOD pricing while trying to commute home will not be expecting "congestion pricing". Putting in congestion pricing policies for someone to accomplish what they think is a basic task (going to work or home) is not the same as pricing entertainment/tickets. We should want ICE people to actually want to transition to BEVs... not find a reason to feel burned by BEV charging.

Although I do think the more workplaces and infrastructure that can provide energy while the vehicle is parked at work will go a long way. But to my knowledge that type of infrastructure is few and far between. My office park has solar over 25% of the outdoor parking stalls and Tesla Megapacks on prem. But even then, there's almost no EV charging spaces for workers.
 
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I’ve been looking at one and since I made my first offer they’ve dropped the price $10K and is now at MSRP and nobody has bit. Honestly think EV truck demand has hit its peak. Lightnings sit on lots and Rivian R1T resale values are low (same with Lightning wholesale values).

I have zero clue who they appeal to. I know numerous of my redneck Florida friends (you know NRA members, don’t tread on me, have a truck, and know how to wrench) have Cybertruck reservations which surprised me but I seriously doubt they will convert to orders because I can’t image them spending $60-$80K on a truck… let alone an EV. Folks have money but they spend it on boats or Porsches or cruises.

If the Cybertruck is Maverick priced around $40K it will sell like hotcakes. If $80K priced - you will see Model X like sales figures.
 
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I’ve been looking at one and since I made my first offer they’ve dropped the price $10K and is now at MSRP and nobody has bit. Honestly think EV truck demand has hit its peak. Lightnings sit on lots and Rivian R1T resale values are low (same with Lightning wholesale values).

I have zero clue who they appeal to. I know numerous of my redneck Florida friends (you know NRA members, don’t tread on me, have a truck, and know how to wrench) have Cybertruck reservations which surprised me but I seriously doubt they will convert to orders because I can’t image them spending $60-$80K on a truck… let alone an EV. Folks have money but they spend it on boats or Porsches or cruises.

If the Cybertruck is Maverick priced around $40K it will sell like hotcakes. If $80K priced - you will see Model X like sales figures.
I think you're letting your coastal-urban-liberal life-of-leisure prejudices and limited ventures away from home affect your view of the world and you may be underestimating your competent redneck Florida friends or at least some of that ilk.
The Ford F-150 Lariat starts at $57K but, adding a bunch of urban-cowboy-wanna-be-tough-guy options and you easily get to an MSRP of $80K. These things sell like hot cakes in Dallas and similar places, where that trait is epidemic. A guy's gotta commute from the 'burbs to the middle management job at the accounting office in something ya know.
 
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I think you're letting your coastal-urban-liberal life-of-leisure prejudices and limited ventures away from home affect your view of the world and you may be underestimating your competent redneck Florida friends or at least some of that ilk.
The Ford F-150 Lariat starts at $57K but, adding a bunch of urban-cowboy-wanna-be-tough-guy options and you easily get to an MSRP of $80K. These things sell like hot cakes in Dallas and similar places, where that trait is epidemic. A guy's gotta commute from the 'burbs to the middle management job at the accounting office in something ya know.

Oh I know they spend that much on trucks but they all write them off on their businesses. These folks are trades or are landscaping types. An EV truck doesn’t fit into their work schedule/life (I’ve asked) so take your urban liberal view of EV trucks and place it back into reality. EV trucks are very much weekend toys for your middle management types as you say but that market is super niche like a Model X. Hauling a work trailer 100 miles to a job site..isn’t something I’d recommend with an EV truck.
 
Oh I know they spend that much on trucks but they all write them off on their businesses. These folks are trades or are landscaping types. An EV truck doesn’t fit into their work schedule/life (I’ve asked) so take your urban liberal view of EV trucks and place it back into reality. EV trucks are very much weekend toys for your middle management types as you say but that market is super niche like a Model X. Hauling a work trailer 100 miles to a job site..isn’t something I’d recommend with an EV truck.
Here they haul their 30' enclosed snowmobile trailers in the winter and their ATV trailer/campers in the summer and fall hunting season 150 miles and 5000 vertical feet uphill to where there are no charging facilities every weekend. Thousands of them. During the week they haul equipment trailers to the job site. They aren't going to be buying any EV trucks either, at least, until battery technology improves.
 
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Everyone right now needs to look at EV Trucks, as Sports Trucks and not Work Trucks period. While some can and will use them as Work Trucks because they don’t travel far, the fact is the range holds these Trucks down.

As a Sports Truck it’s awesome and there is nothing like it. No different than an ICE Sport Truck of old that was awesome but was good only at hauling ass and throwing crap in the bed.
 
Here they haul their 30' enclosed snowmobile trailers in the winter and their ATV trailer/campers in the summer and fall hunting season 150 miles and 5000 vertical feet uphill to where there are no charging facilities every weekend. Thousands of them. During the week they haul equipment trailers to the job site. They aren't going to be buying any EV trucks either, at least, until battery technology improves.

Yup. Almost a half-dozen of my RC friends are currently hauling trailers back from Perry, GA full of goodies at the annual swap meet that's like Mecca to them. Good luck convincing any of them to do that with an EV truck. Great guys.. not stupid and buying an EV truck is a bit stupid.

R1T resale has now hit below MSRP:


These "sport" trucks have a limited market. Lightnings across the country are sitting on lots unsold.

Tesla absolutely needs to hit the Maverick $40K price point to sell in quantities.
 
These folks are trades or are landscaping types.
ya right.
Sure, some skilled tradesmen buy these big, luxury-equipped beasts as a write-off that can also haul their toys on the weekend, but, at least in the wealthy urban areas, I see a whole lot more wanna-look-macho folks (or their wives) driving expensive pickups than those who actually use them for what they were built for. Sure, they groom and primp them just like the MBZ and Jaguar drivers do and they pay just as much.
Tradesfolk, in my experience, generally tend to buy more stripped-down or used trucks.
 
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Even a loaded extended range Lightning isn't Porsche money. Maybe a lightly optioned Macan, but nowhere near a reasonable Taycan. I'm seeing Lightnings used quite a bit in the trades already. They have fleet pricing and the ER battery option for the Pro model.

Otherwise, it's a fantastic cruiser and multi-use vehicle. On the highway the stability is excellent to cruise at 85-90++ mph. I've been seeing 170-175 kW on the new EA stations and Plug & Charge works perfectly.

Is what it is: early days of the electric truck. Until batteries offer 2-3X density this is what we've got. Both Rivian and Ford did a tremendous job with these vehicles. If you tow, look elsewhere. If you don't, enjoy the future today.
 
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If you tow, look elsewhere.
Hyperbole.

I use my R1T to regularly tow a 10,000lb hydraulic lift trailer hauling gravel, dirt, rock and lumber. With 800 hp and 11,000 lb tow capacity it handles that trailer, fully loaded, as if it were empty. And the 4-motor drive lets me maneuver around difficult job sites. The secret is, I work within a 50-mile radius of home so range is never an issue. Range is the only limiting factor when it comes to using an EV as a work truck.

Otherwise it is far superior to any ICE.
 
Hyperbole.

I use my R1T to regularly tow a 10,000lb hydraulic lift trailer hauling gravel, dirt, rock and lumber. With 800 hp and 11,000 lb tow capacity it handles that trailer, fully loaded, as if it were empty. And the 4-motor drive lets me maneuver around difficult job sites. The secret is, I work within a 50-mile radius of home so range is never an issue. Range is the only limiting factor when it comes to using an EV as a work truck.

Otherwise it is far superior to any ICE.
Range only might also be hyperbole. Price might still be limiting for some.
 
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