Norbert
TSLA will win
Yes I believe that Tesla would be in bankruptcy if it were not for the DOE loan. I believe the DOE loan was the main catalyst for major investment in Tesla, the loan is what funded the tooling and purchase of the Nummi factory and Model S as well as new store development.
My (limited) understanding is that the Daimler investment (and order) was enough to keep going. Regarding the Model S development, given that investment from a well-known and experienced car company as a reference, they could have raised capital in other ways. (As Fisker was apparently able to raise a billion, much more than Tesla would have needed.)