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Glad I let my CSIQ go last week around $40. Initially it hurt to see it go to 43+ but now I can buy back at a discount, though i'm not sure i'm going to at the moment. Plan was/is to always buy back in.
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- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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This CSIQ drop is a gift in my opinion -- revenues weren't cancelled they were just delayed due to harsher than expected winter causing construction delays. New analyst coverage coming out from JP Morgan on CSIQ sometime soon as well.
Just added some medium-term calls to my CSIQ LEAPS and stock holdings.
Just added some medium-term calls to my CSIQ LEAPS and stock holdings.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Agree that this drop in CSIQ today was exaggerated and unwarranted. I still have one Jan15$30 call that I bought a few weeks back, all other calls both LEAPs and shorter term were sold in the last two weeks gradually, for nice profits. Those profits went back in today partly in new LEAPS (Ja15$50) and also a bunch of pretty speculative Mar$42 calls (timed the bottom pretty well with those). The next 14 days will be exciting with CSIQ and as far as I'm concerned nothing has changed in the long run.
I think that both you guys are exactly correct. I also went on a March OTM call option buying spree today with CSIQ at $37-$39. I am still worried that the market can act irrationally in the short run, but that would just become a great buying opportunity IMO. They gave guidance for 2014, so there is no more guessing involved. Almost $3b in revenue and $4-$5 EPS seems very reasonable if they merely meet expectations.
I hope that it goes up tomorrow so I can cash out my March calls, but if it keeps going down then I am ready to buy more.
Nothing fundamentally has changed, in the last three quarters of 2014 CSIQ will have to average $800m in revenue to meet guidance. Sounds like the stock is going to go crazy by the end of this year. When it will start, I don't know, and that is why it is better to get in early and stay patient. I am not worried one bit about CSIQ.
dhrivnak
Active Member
Yes no problem in keeping in the refrigerator running. I think my refrigerator only uses about 800 watts however.
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Thanks, Sleepy. I confess I "cheated" today by checking out your thread over on TCI to get the scoop! But yeah, this was just an obvious overreaction on revenue delays due to seasonality that is to be expected. This year feels like a slow-building but inevitable march towards broader market understanding of the cash machine these solar companies are becoming, with CSIQ leading the pack. To be honest, the revenue delay will probably mean a huge revenue beat next quarter when they report, which we here would expect but the market might not. Might be a nice pop when it happens. Here's hoping!
The low of the day was 36.95. Getting a OTM $37 by the hair your chin there
Well, I was buying options so I don't know exactly when they got struck. But I started placing wholesale orders once the stock started falling below $39. I made most of my purchases one or two strike prices away from the daily low. They are up 30% already, but that can disappear if the stock opens weak tomorrow.
I am really hoping for the analysts to step up and do their job and tell the CSIQ story. It is a great company and an undervalued stock. The problem is that there are not a lot of analysts following CSIQ. The big one now is JP Morgan who picked up coverage on Feb 24 with a buy and $50 PT calling CSIQ "best of breed". I hope that he comes out tomorrow and raises his PT to $55, now that there is confirmation of the great year that lies ahead.
The Q1 slow down due to weather has absolutely no fundamental impact on the company. It is not like they were counting on that cash flow, because they just raised $250m+ so they have plenty of working capital.
It is going to be a very strong year for CSIQ.
Appears it's something going on with every China solar. JASO's actually under performing most of it's friends today (YGE, SOL, TSL, CSUN).
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I'm so glad my SOL and JASO calls are finally moving. :smile: Bought them in December ITM. They've been doing poorly since and I prepared myself for a loss as they are approaching expiration soon. I have SOL $4.50 Apr 19 and JASO $10 Mar 22 calls.
I think what is happening is that some of the underperformers of 2013 that had bad balance sheets last year are seeing their balance sheets improve with strong 2014 outlooks as earnings season in full swing ATM and hence those solars are rallying more than the traditional leaders (CSIQ, JKS, etc). 2014 could very well be better for these than 2013.
Thought this was somewhat pertinent to the topic. China's first corporate default was small solar firm.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/07/investing/china-solar-default/index.html?iid=HP_LN
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/07/investing/china-solar-default/index.html?iid=HP_LN
I saw this too. Ultimately, I think this is a healthy thing for the Chinese economy as it demonstrates that there is no guaranteed "bailout" backstopping corporate debt.
As of this writing, for the Chinese solars I track, CSIQ is down slightly but JASO and SOL are significantly up. Interesting.
Roth Capital Starts JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO) at Buy $15 PT:
http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Co...Holdings+Co.,+Ltd.+(JASO)+at+Buy/9258785.html
This is new coverage picked up by Roth today. There are virtually no analysts following JASO; maybe 1 or 2 that I haven't heard from in months.
That is a good thing you guys have sleepyhead to keep you updated :redface:
Now that cat is slowly coming out of the bag, lets hope for a big ER 3/17 and great guidance going forward.
Like I said, sooner or later Wall St. figures these things out and that is why I like to get in early and be patient. I was buying at $8 - $10, and now Wall St. can start their own bidding process at $11.
http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Co...Holdings+Co.,+Ltd.+(JASO)+at+Buy/9258785.html
This is new coverage picked up by Roth today. There are virtually no analysts following JASO; maybe 1 or 2 that I haven't heard from in months.
That is a good thing you guys have sleepyhead to keep you updated :redface:
Now that cat is slowly coming out of the bag, lets hope for a big ER 3/17 and great guidance going forward.
Like I said, sooner or later Wall St. figures these things out and that is why I like to get in early and be patient. I was buying at $8 - $10, and now Wall St. can start their own bidding process at $11.
The JASO Jan15 $15 LEAPs I bought last year are kicking ass this morning. You are awesome, Sleepy.
Edit: Looking at the intraday charts so far today, I see some interesting trends:
JASO and SOL are moving in lock-step.
CSIQ, SPWR and ... TSLA are tracking extremely closely.
Wonder what explains this, or if I'm reading too much into intraday movments after only an hour...
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