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#2,681
I was going to post the same thing. Solar is not an on/off switch, it gradually increases then decreases during the day. I'm no expert, but it doesn't seem like it would be very difficult to calculate and adjust accordingly.

edit - I have an 8kw roof system with monitoring via Enphase micro inverters.
 
#2,682
sub said:
I was going to post the same thing. Solar is not an on/off switch, it gradually increases then decreases during the day. I'm no expert, but it doesn't seem like it would be very difficult to calculate and adjust accordingly.

edit - I have an 8kw roof system with monitoring via Enphase micro inverters.
Click to expand...

It's not difficult to calculate. All areas in the US have A Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) that regulates the generation companies and the power on the grid. All solar energy systems get registered with those offices and based on tomorrow's weather forecast they know what to expect from solar and plan accordingly.

From my understanding the nukes run about the same power levels, are not flexible in their output and provide a base, coal is a little flexible and can ramp up and down within an hour or so. Nat gas is pretty flexible as is hydro.

Solar is predictable when you know the weather, clear sky's are 100%, partly cloudy one plant is diminished to say 80% while another is 100, as the cloud moves the percentages just shift from plant to plant but the overall regional solar production remains fairly constant. Overcast then it's 5-30% output but stable because the air masses are usually large and slow moving, many times covering a large portion of the region.


The most unstable power source is wind, and can cause all kinds of nasty issues, just look at Texas a few years ago. (Note: I like wind, it's just unstable and can cause issues for the grid. )
 
#2,683
I agree with Theshadows on this one, it tapers off slowly enough for utilities to adjust.

I work for a utility and used to work as a real-time energy trader for the utility: where I controlled all of our power plants. Combined cycle gas plants can ramp very quickly at 30+ MW/min, so nothing to worry about. Even our old slow coal plants can still ramp at up to 10 MW/min if they had to. There are plenty of quick start units available and power plants can easily ramp 10x quicker than a sunset causes solar generation to ramp down.

This is just another excuse by a utility trying to keep the status quo. Yes, it does take a little more planning and better execution to get everything flowing smoothly. But it is not anything that is hard to do. Trust me, as a real-time energy trader I could easily spot that every other guy always wanted things to stay exactly the same so that the job becomes predictable and easy. When things start going wrong, that is when the job becomes very stressful to some, and very exciting to others (like myself). Quiet days on the job were considered good days. Now solar just puts in another dent into the status quo. The power plants now always have to stay on high alert towards sunset to be ready to ramp up quickly. This puts additional stress on their shoulders to be operating properly at sunset every day. It makes the job a lot harder for everyone. This is probably why a utility is fighting to keep the status quo. It also makes the jobs a lot harder for everyone in the industry. Harder jobs means that these guys should probably get compensated more as well.

Wind farms are worse though. There was a case in Texas (6th biggest country in the world when it comes to installed wind capacity) where one night wind was providing ~20%+ of the state's generation and then suddenly the wind stopped blowing in west Texas where 80% of the wind farms are located and in very close proximity. This almost caused a blackout because the fossil fuels could not ramp up fast enough.

With solar it is more predictable every evening. Also, the simple solution to both these problems is a battery storage system. I think that California is now going to mandate utilities to install some kind of battery storage. Welcome to the new future...

...the future of solar and battery storage. Distributed generation and on-site battery storage is the key. As Duke Energy CEO said: in the future utilities will be there only to provide backup power. Whereas now they are base load.
 
#2,684
Robert.Boston said:
One serious challenge is almost unique to California: the population runs along a coast that matches, almost perfectly, the sunset. Although LA is a good bit east of SF, take a look at the time of sunset -- it's nearly the same.
Click to expand...

That's true in Autumn/Winter, when the sun appears south of the equator, but it isn't even close to true Spring/Summer. (It's truer of sunrise instead...) I looked up the following figures on timeanddate.com. In truth, the differences aren't all that significant for most of the year. Sorry to be a pedant.

For example, on July 22, 2014 (sunrise, sunset)
San Diego: 5:56 19:54
Los Angeles: 5:57 20:01
San Francisco: 6:05 20:27
Portland (*): 5:43 20:50

(*) Very Northern California :)
 
#2,685
I'm not making up the problem with integrating renewables -- here is a filing from September 25, 2013, where CAISO describes the problem and proposes market rule changes to (a) get more dispatchable resources on line and (b) get variable (=solar + wind) resources to taper production on command. The "over-generation" described by CAISO is a result of them needing to hold lots dispatchable resources on at minimum load to provide the needed ramp to address the tail-off in renewable power. Both wind and solar in CA rise and fall very rapidly, owing to a lack of geographic diversity.
 
#2,686
Robert.Boston said:
I'm not making up the problem with integrating renewables -- here is a filing from September 25, 2013, where CAISO describes the problem and proposes market rule changes to (a) get more dispatchable resources on line and (b) get variable (=solar + wind) resources to taper production on command. The "over-generation" described by CAISO is a result of them needing to hold lots dispatchable resources on at minimum load to provide the needed ramp to address the tail-off in renewable power. Both wind and solar in CA rise and fall very rapidly, owing to a lack of geographic diversity.
Click to expand...

Seems to me solar-wind rise and fall , but the rapidly part is relative. Relative to demand fluctuations, rapid seems exaggerated description. Regardless, even if rapid, they are easily known and predicted well ahead of time. The excuse to reduce their output when high, instead of predicitng required increases when low, seems self serving. I hope the regulatory commissions are serving the customer side of this equation in their decision making
 
#2,687
kenliles said:
Seems to me solar-wind rise and fall , but the rapidly part is relative. Relative to demand fluctuations, rapid seems exaggerated description. Regardless, even if rapid, they are easily known and predicted well ahead of time. The excuse to reduce their output when high, instead of predicitng required increases when low, seems self serving. I hope the regulatory commissions are serving the customer side of this equation in their decision making
Click to expand...

I wasn't disputing your credentials in the energy industry, which I know well. Just that the alignment of the terminator with the coastline is variable, not fixed.
 
#2,689
justdoit said:
Anyone have thoughts on the rise in short interest for SCTY? SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com It's up to 8.9 million, highest ever. It has had a run recently obviously but I didn't think it warranted such a high short interest.
Click to expand...

A combination perhaps of high valuation and concurrent short interest rises in TSLA (due to Musk and other correlations). If the latter it's knee jerk, long opportunity generation as there are only advantages to the relationship. Just thoughts in absence of anything solid...
 
#2,693
Theshadows said:
All it is, is the auto dealers of the utility companies trying to hang on to their status quo that is being threatened by superior technology.
Click to expand...

There're two different 'actors' to watch here: utilities and system operators. Utilities definitely have a business-as-usual attitude, due to huge invested capital. Most of the US and many other places also have independent system operators, which are not-for-profit organizations that are analogous to air traffic controllers.

It's reasonable to be skeptical when a utility is talking, but give more credence to the system operators. Their legal responsibility is to protect reliability, not someone's profits.
 
#2,694
Robert.Boston said:
There're two different 'actors' to watch here: utilities and system operators. Utilities definitely have a business-as-usual attitude, due to huge invested capital. Most of the US and many other places also have independent system operators, which are not-for-profit organizations that are analogous to air traffic controllers.

It's reasonable to be skeptical when a utility is talking, but give more credence to the system operators. Their legal responsibility is to protect reliability, not someone's profits.
Click to expand...

There are no grid instability issues with solar. Every application goes to the engineering review board and is analyzed and vetted to make certain it works in harmony with the grid.

The local RTO has the right to shut any solar system down if they feel it's compromising the system. It's in every interconnection agreement signed by every small system owner and every independent power plant. Large power plants have monitoring systems that talk to the local sub stations to help manage the grid and ensure that there are no issues.

The articles have no merit. Both from the solar side and in an earlier post sleepy clarified the inter workings from the RTO side confirming that the articles are bunk.
 
#2,695
Go back to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) filing at FERC that I linked in an earlier post. I agree that there's no "burn the grid down" sort of reliability issues, but unless you think CAISO is making things up, integrating lots of renewables on the California system is having a real impact on system operations and is incurring additional costs. At this point, CAISO can manage the reliability issues by manually holding a lot of extra fossil-fueled resources on the system, but CAISO hopes to put in market reforms that will better reflect these costs in energy prices (rather than burying those costs in various charges, which are neither hedgeable nor a product that someone could prospectively seek to provide).

These integration costs are real and, therefore, paid by someone. There's an interesting policy question about who that someone should be. CAISO has decided to put these costs on loads (customers). The Midwest ISO assigns some portion of these integration costs to resources that create the cost, i.e. wind farms. Although the Midwest ISO's approach isn't as popular with the renewable energy community, it does provide clear market signals for wind farm developers to take steps not to increase integration costs by, e.g. installing local storage or locating wind farms in areas with different wind patterns than existing farms.
 
#2,700
fjm9898 said:
huge rally. CSIQ announced 10MW and YGE announced a joint venture with a coal company.
not sure if that alone is spicing up the rest of the solars or not, but the run is huge. Happy 2014 to all and good luck to the solar market, this could be another great year for the sun!
Click to expand...

Yeah, good to see a great start to 2014 for Solar. I think we will have a good year. Happy New Year to all of you!
 
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