Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

sleepy, you have any beat on TSL? This $16 price is showing major resistance.
i am not a chartist but a quick look at it looks like its consolidating to make a run at $20. i say that purely because of the $15-16 support i see in the fall it took back in mid 2011. The stock's history shows alot of sticking points and support points around each $5 increment. So it could have a break out to $20 brewing.

These stocks just need to take a breather for the next week or so. They have been running very hot and consolidation would be nice. The stock more than doubled in a little over a month, so it needs to slow down.

 

[borat99]

Sharing links from SolarPVInvestor

Insight Into The Progress Of The Fossil Fuel Transition

Iceland, which is 100% free of fossil fuels, got 26% of its energy from geothermal sources in 2009.
At the end of June 2013, Germany’s total installed solar PV capacity was 31.19 GW, the highest in the world. Despite this solar success, however, Germany still remains dependent on some of its energy from fossil fuels.
China’s spending to free itself from fossil fuels and develop more renewable energy may total 1.8 trillion yuan ($323 billion) in the five years through 2015 as part of the nation’s efforts to counter climate change.
Nicaragua, which has set a goal to be 94% free of fossil fuels by 2017, aims to reduce its reliance on foreign oil from 70% to 6% by that time.
Paraguay, one of the leading countries in the world claiming independence from fossil fuels, is 100% renewable but also exported 90% of its generated electricity (54.91 TWh) in 2008.
By 2016, solar energy will bring electricity to 2 million Peruvians who currently do not have access to it and rely on dirty fossil fuels for cooking, lighting, and other energy needs.
In the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, solar power’s energy potential far exceeds global electricity demand, yet this region still primarily remains dependent on fossil fuels.
In the U.S., 29 states, plus Washington, DC, and 2 territories, have a Renewable Portfolio
Standard (RPS), meaning they will need to increase production of energy from renewable sources in the next 10-20 years in order to decrease reliance on fossil fuels.

PV Sales Rise to Record Heights of 9 Gigawatts in Third Quarter
http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/pv-sales-9-gigawatts-q3-2013-100313

 

[ke6jph]

Well, all I can say about this forum is WOW. The information, opinion and discussion is fantastic. I sold two laggard stocks yesterday and purchased a large (for me) position in csiq. I have about 3/4 of my holdings in Tesla, with SCTY, KNDI and couple other minor positions filling out the rest. This past 24 months has been a crash course in investing (all of my money is in an IRA) and discussions at work about investing help distract from the day to day "grind" of life at a new car dealership. The end game for me is to build up enough cash to supplement retirement and of course purchase a Tesla. I feel the information here will allow me to reach my goals.
Thank you to everyone for this forum.
Mark

 

[borat99]

What is the best site to follow the market? I see different sites shows different volume and market caps. And look at JASO, Google says they have market cap of 86m, while yahoo says 405m.

Yahoo! Finance is usually more reliable than Google Finance. TD Ameritrade also says JASO's market cap is 463.7M, which confirms my perception of Y! Finance.

Also, Norse, you may have already seen this from the other forum, but for other folks here...

These are what the company has reported:

(1) 100 MW, Duanghuang, Gansu Province, 50 MW under construction, epected to finish by the end of 2013
(2) 100 MW, Lincheng, Hebei Province, 50 MW under construction, epected to finish by the end of 2013
(3) 100 MW, Neiqiu, Hebei Province, expect to receive development rights by the end of 2013
(4) 100 MW, Xingtai,, Hebei Province, expect to receive development rights by the end of 2013

Based on what's described in the below link, The 100 MW Lincheng project is actually the first phase of a 500 MW project framework that JASO has signed with the city for a total investment of 5 billion RMB. So there is potentially 400 MW more in the pipeline.

http://www.google.com/translate?hl=...http://project.solarbe.com/201303/15/487.html

Not sure if there are others. JASO had said on their Q2 14 conference call that they were working on a number of other projects that were in early phases and they were optimistic and expected to maintain a steady pace of growth over the long term.

In terms of project financing, JASO is of course better positioned than most if not all other Chinese companies. They had also indicated that they intended to sell these projects once completed and there were interested parties already. Let's see how this plays out and whether they will consider keeping some projects to themselves in the future.

Sun ‘Must Supply 10 Percent of Energy by 2025′
LONDON – Hard on the heels of the latest UN report on climate change, two UK scientists have proposed an ambitious plan to tackle the problem it graphically describes.


Their solution? A massive and urgent international program to increase the world’s production of solar energy – to 10 percent of total global energy supply by 2025, and to 25 percent by 2030.

 

[sleepyhead]

I wrote a follow-up article on CSIQ and talked a little about its valuation and why I think it might be headed much higher:

http://investnaire.com/?q=groups/solar-energy-related-investment-csiq/csiq-will-double-again-lot-sooner-you-expect

 

[ongba]

I wrote a follow-up article on CSIQ and talked a little about its valuation and why I think it might be headed much higher:

http://investnaire.com/?q=groups/so.../csiq-will-double-again-lot-sooner-you-expect

Sleepy,

Do you have another link for your follow up article on csiq? I have clicked on it several times, but always get a "too many redirects" error. Also, if csiq is going to double, perhaps the best way to play is via call spreads, since IV is so high. One can consider the jan '15 20/35 for a little over $3, for potential of $12 (a 4 bagger) should csiq finish above 35 in jan 2015. What do you think?

 

[justdoit]

Sleepy,

Do you have another link for your follow up article on csiq? I have clicked on it several times, but always get a "too many redirects" error. Also, if csiq is going to double, perhaps the best way to play is via call spreads, since IV is so high. One can consider the jan '15 20/35 for a little over $3, for potential of $12 (a 4 bagger) should csiq finish above 35 in jan 2015. What do you think?

Same issue here. Page won't load.

Call spreads seem like a good idea. But can't you also do a risk free delayed construct spread since premiums seem to be going up pretty fast? I really like this strategy and it works pretty well with TSLA.

 

[bonnie]

Sleepy,

Do you have another link for your follow up article on csiq? I have clicked on it several times, but always get a "too many redirects" error. Also, if csiq is going to double, perhaps the best way to play is via call spreads, since IV is so high. One can consider the jan '15 20/35 for a little over $3, for potential of $12 (a 4 bagger) should csiq finish above 35 in jan 2015. What do you think?

Same issue here. Page won't load.

Why not just post it here as a blog post?

 

[Norse]

"Hazardous levels of pollution
descended on the Chinese capital during its biggest sporting weekend of the year
so far, affecting competitors and spectators alike at an LPGA golf event and the
China Open tennis championship, which boasted such big names as Novak Djokovic,
Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams." http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/07/world/asia/beijing-pollution-golf-tennis/index.html?hpt=isp_c2

Just now in Beijing. Global climate change doesnt matter, China goes solar cause they have big issues with local pollution.

 

[sleepyhead]

Sleepy,

Do you have another link for your follow up article on csiq? I have clicked on it several times, but always get a "too many redirects" error. Also, if csiq is going to double, perhaps the best way to play is via call spreads, since IV is so high. One can consider the jan '15 20/35 for a little over $3, for potential of $12 (a 4 bagger) should csiq finish above 35 in jan 2015. What do you think?

I fixed the link and it should be working now. Let me know what you think:

http://www.investnaire.com/?q=group...siq-will-double-again-lot-sooner-you-expect-0

Same issue here. Page won't load.

Call spreads seem like a good idea. But can't you also do a risk free delayed construct spread since premiums seem to be going up pretty fast? I really like this strategy and it works pretty well with TSLA.

Delayed construct is my favorite play, but as you said premiums are high now so it is better to do an intact spread instead of delayed construct (unless of course the premiums go even higher, but they are already high). CSIQ has nearly doubled in just six weeks and if we see a period of consolidation or a 20% correction, then you might see some serious volatility crush that will make your delayed construct that much harder to construct.

If you have to buy options now, then intact BCS is safer today. If you want to do delayed construct then wait a little for a period of consolidation and/or a 10%+ pullback.

Why not just post it here as a blog post?

I will look into it. For now, I would like to have complete control over what goes into my articles and be able to track how many people are actually reading my posts (and have the ability to advertise if necessary). These blog posts are very time consuming, and quite frankly I don't have the time to write as much as I would like. If I see that not many people are interested then I will stop posting these articles.

Update: edited the link, so it should work on mobile now.

 

[sleepyhead]

"Hazardous levels of pollution
descended on the Chinese capital during its biggest sporting weekend of the year
so far, affecting competitors and spectators alike at an LPGA golf event and the
China Open tennis championship, which boasted such big names as Novak Djokovic,
Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams." http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/07/world/asia/beijing-pollution-golf-tennis/index.html?hpt=isp_c2

Just now in Beijing. Global climate change doesnt matter, China goes solar cause they have big issues with local pollution.

You bet that the politicians are embarrassed as heck after this fiasco.

The only thing holding solar back in China right now is the transmission line infrustructure that is not able to support it. Once they get their act together I think that China will be installing 100s of GW's per year and will lead the world in moving to a solar economy.

Solar technology is still really cheap compared to the price of pollution. The stock prices are really cheap too.

BTW, I was expecting the solar stocks to get crushed today, but most of them are in the green now (except for CSIQ of course ). It seems to me like these stocks are actually becoming "investible" (whatever that is supposed to mean, but I here it on TV a lot). The days of huge volatility (that we have seen just two months ago) seem to be over.

That said, I still fear that if the government shutdown continues dragging on, we may still see 10% down days for solar. Then again I was expecting the same today...

 

[Norse]

Yeah they should be embarrassed, and along with beeing self-supplied its a given that China will go allin on Solar in the future.

Very good article sleepy, will you wait a week until I have got all my options in and publish it on SA?


Canadian Solar Launches Financing Program Targeting Fast Growing U.S. Residential Solar Market
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1861892&highlight=
Might not be good news for SCTY tho.

I dont have to much money in SPWR atm, you have PT in mind there?

 

[Bonken]

Thanks for the article sleepy! as always very good!

 

[sleepyhead]

Canadian Solar is entering the US residential market:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...cing-for-residential-projects.html?cmpid=yhoo

Instead of leasing the system to residential owners, CSIQ will help provide financing (through banks) to purchase the entire system. Slightly different model than SCTY. SPWR has both options to lease and to purchase outright, but it sounds to me like they are more focused on expanding the lease option.

 

[Norse]

Canadian Solar is entering the US residential market:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...cing-for-residential-projects.html?cmpid=yhoo

Instead of leasing the system to residential owners, CSIQ will help provide financing (through banks) to purchase the entire system. Slightly different model than SCTY. SPWR has both options to lease and to purchase outright, but it sounds to me like they are more focused on expanding the lease option.

Yeah, isnt this REALLY good news?

Now possible to buy MAR14 36$ options. Dont think that was possible earlier.

 

[anon]

I just want to add some thanks to sleepyhead; I invested in SPWR on the dip after last earnings because of all the information in this thread. I'm very pleased to be making a nice profit at the moment. I've been investing a little in Tesla since long before I discovered TMC, but I hadn't thought about solar stocks until I saw this thread!

 

[sleepyhead]

I just want to add some thanks to sleepyhead; I invested in SPWR on the dip after last earnings because of all the information in this thread. I'm very pleased to be making a nice profit at the moment. I've been investing a little in Tesla since long before I discovered TMC, but I hadn't thought about solar stocks until I saw this thread!

Thanks. I am glad that somebody listened and bought some SPWR when it dipped all the way down to $20. You have to get greedy when others are fearful and that was the perfect time to buy SPWR.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, isnt this REALLY good news?

Now possible to buy MAR14 36$ options. Dont think that was possible earlier.

CSIQ needs to take a breather. It was the hottest solar stock last week, so a nice little break will be good. A short consolidation period would be nice before the next run up.

 

[Norse]

CSUN taking off again.

 

[sleepyhead]

CSUN taking off again.

I have noticed that too. I still hold a little bit of CSUN and it has given me a nice return. It sounds like a potential buyout target and I will hold on for a while. The risk is that the buyout wipes out all of the shareholders, because CSUN has relatively high debt and may not be able to refinance in time. Bigger players might wait till CSUN gets closer to a coupon payment it can't make and then buy their capacity for cheap, leaving the shareholders holding the bag.

I don't think that will happen, but it is a real risk since the company has a lot of debt due in the next 12 months or so.

 

[borat99]

argggg... I wasn't able to sell my CSUN MAR 13 calls this morning for profit since I had to do stuff at the airport. Now it's in the red again. I just don't have luck with timing.

What simulates the options price? Liquidity?