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doing good for SCTY atleast. Big buy and big up: 7.19%
What is considered a "small" roof? My house is about 2,200 sq ft.
Speaking of panel reliability: Sunpower just issued a press release about third party panel testing proving that they make the most reliable panels on the planet:
SunPower E20/327 Solar Panels Earn Unprecedented Rating for Reliability after Completing the Atlas 25+ Program - MarketWatch
Fortunately for Solarcity people don't really understand solar panels, LCOE, degradation, performance in extreme conditions, etc. Therefore Solarcity will do just fine, because people will never really understand this technology.
Hahaha. Thanks for the info, but you are harping on SCTY big time. You must have this hatred for their popularity deep down inside eh? Seems like you think SCTY is like a LEAF and Sunpower is a Model S.
Well, Sleepyhead, it might be that SPWR shares went from $160 to $3.71 because of those nefarious Chinese...
or it might be that because there was no way in Hades the stock should have been at $160 in the first place...
or it might be because, after all, a silicon cell is a silicon cell is a silicon cell....and, ya know...that dratted thing called Commodity Pricing comes into play and those who are in the commodity-supplying business ought realize that Fungibility is the order of the day and their product for turning photons into electrons really, truly is no different from anyone else's and so it will be the Least Cost Producer who rules the day and the devil takes the hindmost.
So, you can talk all you want about how Subpower's panels are better and longer lasting and more efficient than the next fella's....but talk don't hold much water. Not in the world of commodity pricing.
Here is a link to Sunpower's Analyst Day event (first one in 4 years). If you don't want to listen then at least download the slides and take a look at them:
http://investors.sunpowercorp.com/events.cfm
All Chinese solar companies make ~15% efficient commodity panels, while Sunpower makes 21% efficient panel with significantly lower degradation, better durability and reliability because it is copper plated.
I agree with you that cost is a big factor, and Sunpower is a little behind. But costs are falling so quick that in 2-3 years efficiency will rule. Right now a SPWR panel costs something like $1 and a commodity panel $0.60 to make. At 21% efficiency vs. 15% efficiency you might be better off buying a commodity panel TODAY. But Sunpower's roadmap is to reduce the x-series panel cost by 35% by 2015 and increase efficiency to 23%; so at $0.65 you will get a 23% efficient panel. If commodity panels go down even to $0.40 at 15%, Sunpower will be the clear choice. It costs about $5/Watt to install panels on your home today and once panels get that cheap in 2 years, efficiency will rule.
Would you rather buy a Kandi/BYD or a Tesla vehicle if your only goal is to go from point A to point B over the next 20 years? Both cars will work, but which one has a better chance of performing 10 - 20 years down the road? I would bet that Tesla's battery degradation will be a lot lower than Kandi's/BYD's? Just like SPWR panels will have lower degradation vs. commodity panels..
Here is a link to Sunpower's Analyst Day event (first one in 4 years). If you don't want to listen then at least download the slides and take a look at them:
http://investors.sunpowercorp.com/events.cfm
Side note: Has anyone done any research on Sun Edison (SUNE) formerly known as MEMC something... (WFR?). I have a gut feeling that this might be a good solar play as well, but .
Is the "copper plated" technology proprietary and patented by SPWR?
Is it possible that the efficiency of the commodity pannels will increase the same 23% by 2015? If yes, the situation will be the same as today.
If/When SPWR panels beat the commodity panels, SCTY can just switch to SPWR panels.
So it looks like SCTY is a winner here. They can use the whatever panels they like. As you say yourself "you might be better off buying a commodity panel TODAY", so SCTY uses them TODAY. If it makes sense, they will use SPWR panels tomorrow. At any time, SCTY reduces the risk and increases the profitability, so SCTY looks like a winner to me, compared to SPWR.
Comparing Kandi/BYD glorified golf cars to Model S is ridiculous. There's no analogy that can be transferred to SPWR vs SCTY.
If you want an analogy, you can compare something like different roof materials. A more durable but more expensive roof material compared to a less durable but a cheaper one. Then it would be interesting to see which roof material is more successful in the market.
I think this is one of those industries where a rising tide lifts all ships. I'm spreading my investments across the whole industry. Solar has been coming for a long time (kinda like Tesla) but I think we are at an inflection point right now.