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  1. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Did you misread my posts? Cruise and Waymo have working, driverless cars on the roads of San Francisco today. https://electrek.co/2022/04/10/gm-cruise-autonomous-taxi-pulled-over-by-police-in-san-francisco-without-humans-bolts-off-u-cruise-responds/ No driver inside them. Anyone can see it...
  2. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So then why doesn't Tesla have functional level 4 AVs? Why isn't Tesla running a demo fleet? So tourists and residents can "Oooooh" and "Aaaaah" and post about it on social media? Why doesn't Tesla have any permits to run fully autonomous vehicles? If data and scale are the main advantage (as...
  3. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/techflash/2015/01/uber-valuation-revenue-sf-taxi-industry-kalanick.html Uber had 500mm in revenue in just San Francisco in 2015. It's likely way beyond 1B now. So yeah, big cities have huge ride share markers, and there's no driver they'd be...
  4. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There's a difference between YOU, as an individual, doing it and Tesla, the company. Why aren't Tesla employees taxing home with no one in the driver's seat and posting about it? Why doesn't Tesla have demo vehicles, even if just 100, driving around without a driver? Why isn't Tesla getting...
  5. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Almost fall asleep Disengagements are pretty rare Surely you recognize the gap here? These companies are demonstrating perfection. They are setting an extremely high bar. They've been operating a 100% autonomous, significant fleet at scale for months. Their own employees are getting in cars...
  6. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    GM owns Cruise, and Cruise has made significant progress in autonomous vehicles. https://www.carscoops.com/2022/03/cruise-ready-to-expand-self-driving-fleet-beyond-san-francisco/ https://www.therobotreport.com/cruises-robotaxis-now-cover-70-of-san-francisco/ First mover advantage is real, and...
  7. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It needs more than just "many improvements." Driving with FSD on city streets is stressful - you're just an unpaid test driver at this point.
  8. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When is Tesla going to start testing cars without drivers in them? Videos like this are going to take over the FSD conversation, where there's literally no one in the driver's seat
  9. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What area/region? Would love to follow up.
  10. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It was a promise they raised 1.8B in debt financing, and according to the WSJ last October, is the subject of a Department of Justice investigation. Yes. It's weird there doesn't appear to be more demand. You can walk into any Tesla store in the United States - they promise they can deliver a...
  11. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good analysis on Tesla's cash flow: Perseid Capital - Tesla Cashflow Projection I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of InsideEV's January and February numbers. This was a huge cliff in demand, and it's likely the force behind Tesla... Continuing layoffs, such as 1/3rd of their...
  12. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla's general counsel quit after 2 months. I'm guessing it was this tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter
  13. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not unusual at all. (Did Tesla seriously email you an update that a firm increased its holdings by 100k shares? Did they also email Ark dumping half their position?)
  14. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes. Norway has a law that requires all cars be emissions free by 2025. In 2025, it will be illegal to drive an emissions vehicle in Norway. What’s put the spark in Norway’s electric car revolution?
  15. FirebirdAlpha

    [Speculation] Tesla Critical Youtube Videos Receiving Community Guideline Violations

    It's not comparable. One is a customer describing their experience. The other is essentially online gossip. At the end of the day, the guy's window didn't work. He struggled to get the service tech's attention. He had to go and take it in for service. That should not happen to a brand-new car...
  16. FirebirdAlpha

    [Speculation] Tesla Critical Youtube Videos Receiving Community Guideline Violations

    Again, you're confusing journalism ethics for normal human ethics. This guy isn't a journalist. He posted a video that's just what it is. No normal person has an ethical obligation to constantly update what's happening in their life on the internet. If I get my Honda fixed at a local repair...
  17. FirebirdAlpha

    [Speculation] Tesla Critical Youtube Videos Receiving Community Guideline Violations

    What? No. The original poster is not a journalist and has no obligation to provide updates on the window. Was the window broken at the time the video was published? Yes. Therefore, it's not misleading. Also, YouTube's community guidelines do not say anything about "misleading content" being...
  18. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    At most companies, "qualifications" for the CFO role is connections, network, and management. I'd just ask again: why not go out and recruit a really amazing CFO? Someone that had great relationships with tons of banks?
  19. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah. I see a guy who has less than 3 months of finance experience in a VP or higher role.
  20. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Because being CFO of a 50B+ public company requires experience and expertise. It's a job that's equal to the CEO. This guy was promoted to VP of Finance two months ago. He has less than 10 years of work experience. He's 31 years-old. He doesn't have any advanced finance certifications beyond...
  21. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think it's Deepak retiring. I think it's that a 50B+ public company just handed the CFO job to an internal 31-year-old. It should be easy for Tesla to recruit incredible talent for the CFO job. Why didn't they?
  22. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So... Tesla is replacing a guy with nearly 30 years of work experience and 15 years of experience in the CFO role with a guy that's not even 32 years-old and has only worked for 3 companies? And is only 5 years out of his MBA program? LOL
  23. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Editted my post, but just remember: they're competing with Google. Waymo is a Google company.
  24. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Foolish for him to laugh. Waymo is operating an autonomous taxi service in 3 US cities right now. They're launching their first EU city in February. Why does the "million cars with data" advantage matter if Waymo already has enough data to operate? Reminder: Waymo is a Alphabet/Google...
  25. FirebirdAlpha

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Bear highlights: Declining profit despite growing revenues Still no China funding: "We expect to arrange financing through local banks in China to fund most of the capex for Gigafactory Shanghai." What's happening with Accounts Receivable? Why is interest income not keeping up with cash...
  26. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Uh-huh. And how does paying off debt impact GAAP profitability?
  27. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    No position. Considering re-opening it though. Closed 2018 with a 32% overall gain on Tesla.
  28. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I know GAAP. I'm not arguing the accounting principles. I'm pointing out the absurdity of allowing someone to drive away with a $60,000+ product before having received the money. What if that person just disappears? What if they were using a fake identity? What if the financing was fake? etc...
  29. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    So you're going to let someone drive away with a car before you've received the money for it? That's generally not how consumer transactions work. First you send the money, then you get the product. It's also not sustainable. You're pulling those cars out of Q1 and into Q4, which just makes Q1...
  30. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I feel like a broken record here, but the SEC does not need to prove intent. That's not the purpose of the SEC. The SEC exists to: protect investors maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets facilitate capital formation. They don't need to prove intent when doing things to try and achieve...
  31. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla appears to have lost their second corporate controller this year: TempWorker on Twitter Stock dipping below 250. I wonder what levels trigger Elon's margin calls. @juanmedina, @gora321 - any reason for the "disagree" on the above? or just joining the cult that "all bad news must be...
  32. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Any longs have an answer for this? Especially given that Tesla is supposedly making its own car carriers? Flash Jourdan on Twitter
  33. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Because he can't help himself. Why call Vern a pedo and child rapist? Why proclaim "funding secured" before getting the offer in writing? Why silence analysts on an earnings call (and proceed to go to YouTube)? Why tweet "20,000 Model 3s in December" when it's impossible? Why mock the SEC, the...
  34. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Exactly. This is why Elon's total use of Twitter is so problematic. He's looked a lot like Trump since May. Yelling at analysts on the phone. Going on rants about "fake news" and "the evil media." It was eerie when he started namecalling heroes. Trump mocked John McCain, Elon mocked Vernon...
  35. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I thought you were done posting for a week?
  36. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    LOL I hate to break it to you, but shorts are in no way "coordinated." Maybe it's the longs who have been illegally manipulating the stock price? Doesn't it seem a little weird that a car company that produces 3% of GM's car output has a higher market cap? Smells like manipulation. ---------...
  37. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    That's cute. But as CEO and Chairman, he has a fiduciary duty to his investors. At least when I invest in a company, I want the hungry shark.
  38. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Timestamped: Imgur Today's close was 281.83
  39. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    The SEC can make any public company's life hell. SEC commissioner goes and says "alright, **** you too, we're sending in the forensic auditors." That's why you don't "screw the SEC." It's why you don't taunt police officers, too.
  40. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    You ever fight back with a regulator or law enforcement personnel? It doesn't end pretty for the guy fighting.
  41. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    As many of you know, I'm short. But I am genuinely enraged by Musk's behavior. This is an embarrassment to US capitalism. What the hell is he thinking? Taunting regulators achieves nothing and only hurts your shareholders. As CEO and chairman, this man is ultimately responsible for over 40...
  42. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    What? No one cares if the tweet is "in the agreement" or not. Taunting regulators is always stupid. Do you taunt police officers when they pull you over? Do you taunt the IRS when paying taxes? The SEC can create hell for any public company. Why on Earth would anyone ever think it's a good...
  43. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    ... Maybe Elon should start behaving like the CEO of a 50B+ company? Compare Musk's behavior and demeanor to the likes of Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, David Taylor, or Sundar Pichai. Who cares? It makes him look like a child at a time when he should be projecting...
  44. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Guidance is generally covered under forward-looking statements, but it needs to still be possible. It's illegal to give guidance that you know to be impossible (or, in SEC speak, "reckless in not knowing that it wasn't possible"). The WSJ had previously reported that the SEC had been...
  45. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Considering the SEC went from lifetime D&O ban to a 3-year chairman ban, I think the judge might want to know what happened.
  46. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Is there any news driving today's decline? If not, looks like someone is liquidating.
  47. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Holding. I think they're in trouble. I mean it when I say I think bankruptcy is coming. I will admit that I covered because I want my potential losses capped to the modest position I have. I think the lack of Q3 and Q4 guidance is troubling, and I think the lack of any mention of the waitlist...
  48. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Definitely. TeslaCharts, Dana Hull (Bloomberg), Charley Grant (WSJ), Linetta Lopez (Business Insider), and the Editor-in-Chief of CNBC all hang out with prominent shorts like Chanos on Slack. They've been experimenting for months, debating if they should just lay out all the harsh news in one go...
  49. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Seriously? Welcome to my ignore list. Do people honestly believe this dribble? That the New York Times is running negative stories because of advertising revenue from automakers? The New York Times makes 1.7 billion annually. They don't give a damn about advertising revenue from automakers...
  50. FirebirdAlpha

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Oh? I've never seen Tesla break out gross margin per individual model. All I've seen is that sentence where it's "slightly positive when excluding non-cash" Care to provide a source? I've seen them give guidance for 15% gross margin, but I've also seen them give guidance for 20k Model 3s in...