TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[carterm2]

Hi T/S. Okay, I'll hazard some guesses. All the groups that see this as their last chance to kill the kraken that is coming for their throats? So in no particular order:

• fossil fools
• legacy auto
• unions
• investment banks
• corrupt politicians
• federal regulators
• shipping (Bcuz KRAKEN)

Does that cover most of Tesla's list? I haven't added Space-X or TBC's natural enemies here, either.

Anyone? Bueller? Cheers!

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How about anyone who got burned by the 420 tweet, or the Joe Rogan toke, or the SEC debacle, etc... Likely fund managers who lost $$$ and now don't feel comfortable with a company run by EM and his tendency to be free or.. unpredictable

Of course, when Tesla hits the profitable quarter a third time, and get it over 35% better each quarter, we should see a consistent increase in volume and a corresponding increase in money flow and hopefully SP as the funds come back to feed on the success and the unique energy that is driving Tesla.

For now, I think the Shorts are in control as demonstrated today... A lot of us expected a jump in SP after the report this morning.

Does anyone still believe there is a chance for a short squeeze?

 

[Off Shore]

not according to the NYT artical

Well, there ya go.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Accounting doesn't work that granularly. It takes time to sift through and input all the data and moving parts. Hence why companies generally take a month to report quarterly results. I think that Elon couldn't know exactly how close they were, but knew it was prudent and perhaps necessary for a big weekend push. If no cars were delivered the last day of the quarter maybe that could push profit to zero, obviously Elon didn't want to risk it either way.

And there was that late $20m one time expense.

 

[SpaceCash]

How about anyone who got burned by the 420 tweet, or the Joe Rogan toke, or the SEC debacle, etc... Likely fund managers who lost $$$ and now don't feel comfortable with a company run by EM and his tendency to be free or.. unpredictable

Of course, when Tesla hits the profitable quarter a third time, and get it over 35% better each quarter, we should see a consistent increase in volume and a corresponding increase in money flow and hopefully SP as the funds come back to feed on the success and the unique energy that is driving Tesla.

For now, I think the Shorts are in control as demonstrated today... A lot of us expected a jump in SP after the report this morning.

Does anyone still believe there is a chance for a short squeeze?

The short squeeze is right now more realistic than ever. Shorts are TERRIFIED right now. Or too blissfully unaware to understand what's about to happen. They're screwed. You can't just cover 33 million shares in a calm and civil fashion when material events force a dramatic rally in SP.

How many shares trade in a normal day?
Imagine scrambling to cover while the price shoots up and your broker is forced to close your whole account and...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have strong belief that a 35K Tesla ends up being a 35K Tesla.

Not the 69K Tesla’s that end up being 80K.

The demand for 35K Tesla’s would be unlimited.. but problematic for margins.

All Tesla has to do to jack up revenue with the $35K base model is make FSD available as a subscription when joining the car to the Tesla Network.

Hell, I'd buy a base Model 3 and pay for EAP/FSD on the Tesla Network for 3 days as I travel south in the Winter. I'd save money up front (getting me in a Model 3 years earlier), and Tesla gets pure profit on each FSD mile. And I'd pay for rides for family member w/o driver's licences all year round. In fact, my family could easily SELL 2 cars, and employ the 1 Tesla much more fully.

Lot's of ways for Tesla to make money on a base Model 3, after it is sold. It's the subscription model that pays. Like Netflix or Spotify, except for travelers. Cheers!

 

[CuriousSunbird]

The short squeeze is right now more realistic than ever. Shorts are TERRIFIED right now. Or too blissfully unaware to understand what's about to happen. They're screwed. You can't just cover 33 million shares in a calm and civil fashion when material events force a dramatic rally in SP.

How many shares trade in a normal day?
Imagine scrambling to cover while the price shoots up and your broker is forced to close your whole account and...

Yup, burning up here.

Think I'll need an extra blanket tonight.

Goodnight.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yes, they SHOULD try to sell ZEV credits, but the BIGGER question is, will anyone buy them?

I think ZEV sales will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)

People's Grain on Twitter

People's Grain on Twitter

I almost hope they haven't sold any ZEV in Q3. Being profitable without ZEV would be much more destructive to the short thesis.

I also think Tesla shouldn't sell a single credit for less than $2500. They shouldn't give the large OEMs a cheap way out.

 

[Ulmo]

How does the middle class get to work in your world?

In cars much cheaper than Teslas.

 

[Ulmo]

Big NYT articke on Trump, not good.

Twitter recently did a round of the most massive censorship ever, so it's not surprising the fake liars are out in force right now right before an election. Pretty much everything they write should be seen as opposite of the truth.

 

[Thekiwi]

I almost hope they haven't sold any ZEV in Q3. Being profitable without ZEV would be much more destructive to the short thesis.

I also think Tesla shouldn't sell a single credit for less than $2500. They shouldn't give the large OEMs a cheap way out.

Devils advocate - make them nice and cheap for other car makers, So they have less incentive to develop & ship there own EVs.

 

[oneday]

No. That BoD and Elon is who got them to where Tesla is now. Which means nothing to you, but for those of us who have followed and backed this company long before you showed up thinking you had a clue, it means a lot and is significant. It doesn’t need to be tampered with, fixed or changed in anyway by the SEC.

Agree 100%. I’ve honestly been rather shocked by the amount of people (I respect) on this board that act like the SEC is doing TSLA some kind of favor. Will things work out fine, I believe so. Will things have been fine if the SEC did nothing. I believe so. Honestly I prefer an unmuzzled Elon. If the world were a better place, people would be ok with the fact that he is human and might make mistakes.

Would Elon have been found guilty if he went to trial. I think not. He took the deal for the Tesla employees and his shareholders.

 

[RobStark]

What was the 59K Model 3?

Base 35K + LR 9K + PUP 5K = 49K

My bad, I remember the first ones being $59k. But I guess $49k version was available.

I guess those were loaded with EAP, 20" wheels, carbon fibre spoiler, premium paint and forget what else.

 

[dqd88]

The tone of NYT coverage on Tesla remains consistently negative as if they harbor a deep, lasting grudge.

I remain really curious as to what drives the disdain they have for Musk and the company. Printing a quote from some nobody comparing Musk to Jim Jones of Jonestown is simply bizarre, obscene. It is extraordinary to witness this from supposedly the greatest news organization in the world, on the same day they publish an impressive, year-in-the-making, 13,000-word investigative report on the Trump family finances.

My initial guess is that it's related to the fact that NYT probably gets a big % of their ad revenue from auto makers. Especially Lincoln and Cadillac, who target NYC buyers.

 

[carterm2]

Would Elon have been found guilty if he went to trial. I think not. He took the deal for the Tesla employees and his shareholders.

So... if $420 was the price, and the secured funds were coming from the Saudi source, why did they Saudi PIF not tell the SEC that they were behind the go private secured funds? The SEC would have NADA...

Finally, EM refused to sell to Apple years ago, why would he partner with the Saudi Prince (I ask because I don't really see the source of much of the world's oil (and other things) as being a good fit, to say the least.)

 

[gora321]

Is there a way to see the short action in real time?

Try with : finanztreff.de - Börseninformationen - Kurse, Aktien, Anleihen, Optionsscheine, Fonds, Nachrichten, Termine, Devisen

I't German. You have to pick up SP in Euros and you will see it in real time. For volumes according to the markets you have to pick chartanalyse.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Twitter recently did a round of the most massive censorship ever, so it's not surprising the fake liars are out in force right now right before an election. Prettymuch everything they write should be seen as opposite of the truth.

I hate Trump.... but the NYT and mainstream media is not far behind.... conundrums

 

[Ulmo]

I was curious as to the cause of the dip after hours.
Fed Judge in San Francisco says Tesla needs to defend it's abuse of foreign workers.

What dip? I hardly see anything here that counts as a dip in that time period (5:55PM PT).

 

[printf42]

People are more irrational when it comes to big purchases. No one wants to have any buyers regret when there's no take backs on a purchase in which you pay a monthly payment for 5-6 years. I want to say LR vanilla will be very popular, 2nd place will be SR+premium. Autopilot might be skipped by a good amount of people. Whatever people pick, it'll be a donation to the cause.

I got the same feeling LR vanilla will be popular and EAP be skipped by lots of them, but I also imagine many of them will buy EAP or even FSD in a year or so, after some free trial, when they have more free cash in hand.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

My initial guess is that it's related to the fact that NYT probably gets a big % of their ad revenue from auto makers. Especially Lincoln and Cadillac, who target NYC buyers.

Seriously? Welcome to my ignore list.

Do people honestly believe this dribble? That the New York Times is running negative stories because of advertising revenue from automakers?

The New York Times makes 1.7 billion annually. They don't give a damn about advertising revenue from automakers. They're widely regarded as one of the most reputable news organizations in the world.

 

[oneday]

So... if $420 was the price, and the secured funds were coming from the Saudi source, why did they Saudi PIF not tell the SEC that they were behind the go private secured funds? The SEC would have NADA...

Finally, EM refused to sell to Apple years ago, why would he partner with the Saudi Prince (I ask because I don't really see the source of much of the world's oil (and other things) as being a good fit, to say the least.)

From listening to the press conference the SEC gave, it did not appear that they were saying that Elon didn’t have funding to go private. They were saying that the wording he gave in his tweets were misleading. They were misleading in the sense that although the Saudi’s had committed Elon made it sound more likely than it was. And the price at $420 was not already agreed upon. They said that going private with a foreign funding source needed regulatory approval, which Elon didn’t have. I think I’ve gathered also that Elon had a more agreed upon price of $419 and change and he allegedly upped it to $420 to impress bae.

Why would he have won the suit in my opinion. He had no intent to defraud. He believed what he said to be true and if all the facts were on the table a rational jury would believe a rational person would also have likely said and believed similar things.

Edit: as to the oil money thing. Yeah, I think a lot of people don’t like this one. But honestly, money is money. If it’s used to do something good then it’s source, although not irrelevant, is less important. Perhaps Elon met with the Prince and believed he is trying to be better. You know we (the USA) are the biggest reasons why the world has burned so much oil after all.