TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

At this point "short squeeze" is a pipe-dream that you have to let go off.
A break-even (or marginally positive) Q3 will not scare any short, they will double down claiming it is a one time thing achieved by cooking the books. More positive Q4 may shake a few small player shorts, but only if margin called — which needs significant institutional buying first. However, at higher prices there will be just as many new shorts jumping in. The real big shorts have a lot of money in other plays, they will not be margin called. There are also die hard haters such as Spiegel who will hold on and unwilling to admit they were wrong all along.

Wrong wrong wrong. Most shorted and undervalued stock in the world. A short squeeze is GOING to happen. Question is when.

 

[Aieukl378]

I'm thinking the market is pricing in the possibility of Elon losing his mind or being ousted as CEO. He'll continue to tweet crazy and be unhinged then at some point(much lower from here I'd guess) his crazy will be baked into the price and it will be able to recover off whatever bottom. Could be a rough ride.

 

[ZachShahan]

It seems to me that Elon's tweets are indeed trying to show that the punishment put on him was not fair, that he is appealing to the judge about that in the unsettled settlement.

I don't know enough to know if that's a viable argument for him here, but that's how it reads.

Am I wrong?

Is it possible he will convince the judge that he is being unfairly attacked & punished?

 

[bdy0627]

Wrong wrong wrong. Most shorted and undervalued stock in the world. A short squeeze is GOING to happen. Question is when.

Sure, but do realize that people have been saying that here for several years now. The key is your last sentence. There is absolutely no way to predict it, so it is absolutely futile to try and time it. No sense in talking about it.

 

[BenPrice]

It seems to me that Elon's tweets are indeed trying to show that the punishment put on him was not fair, that he is appealing to the judge about that in the unsettled settlement.

I don't know enough to know if that's a viable argument for him here, but that's how it reads.

Am I wrong?

Is it possible he will convince the judge that he is being unfairly attacked & punished?

I think more than wrong or right, or more than to convince us of wrong or right:

The concern is that the SEC has repeatedly leaked during this process.

That due to the specific timing of the leaks, the SECs actions caused more harm, both in volume and SP movement than the “crime” by a massive factor.

That the SEC rushed an investigation because of its own fiscal year end.

And the SEC’s mission statement, which contains 3 sections, should have prevented all of the above.

As a result, the only beneficiary of the SECs actions are short sellers who are not investors.

 

[Dangleitus]

At this point "short squeeze" is a pipe-dream that you have to let go off.
A break-even (or marginally positive) Q3 will not scare any short, they will double down claiming it is a one time thing achieved by cooking the books. More positive Q4 may shake a few small player shorts, but only if margin called — which needs significant institutional buying first. However, at higher prices there will be just as many new shorts jumping in. The real big shorts have a lot of money in other plays, they will not be margin called. There are also die hard haters such as Spiegel who will hold on and unwilling to admit they were wrong all along.

From the short camp, I expect a gaap profitable quarter. My thesis rests on sustainability of those profits, so I'll fade any pop in the SP. I literally am sitting on cash as I have exited all but 3 of my long positions due to my opinion of the market. I suspect many short sellers are like myself and using long dated options to limit risk, so I do not think I will get margin called at any time.

But it seems to be holding 260. I can't see it dropping below that for the time being. Who knows though. These tweets/ news bombs are unpredictable at this point.

 

[SpaceCash]

Sure, but do realize that people have been saying that here for several years now. The key is your last sentence. There is absolutely no way to predict it, so it is absolutely futile to try and time it. No sense in talking about it.

Nah man. We're about to be profitable. I can say with confidence it will happen in the next 12 months. Probably 6

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Nah man. We're about to be profitable. I can say with confidence it will happen in the next 12 months. Probably 6

I thought you were done posting for a week?

not really, it didn't. It was a few thousand shares. If we don't fully recover tomorrow I'll stop posting for a week

 

[SpaceCash]

can somebody call to Deepak and ask him to give positive earnings pre-anouncement to save us here

I do feel this would be appropriate given the circumstances

 

[JRP3]

With a 1 as the first digit I suspect

True.

Hey. Do you actually own that Attex Superchief?

Of course, my first EV conversion project. (Not actually a Superchief though, it was the st300, same body, smaller engine).

 

[beachbum77]

Is Friday

Yes... and the market closes for the week today.

 

[SpaceCash]

I thought you were done posting for a week?

I said if we don't fully recover today, clown

 

[bdy0627]

It seems to me that Elon's tweets are indeed trying to show that the punishment put on him was not fair, that he is appealing to the judge about that in the unsettled settlement.

I don't know enough to know if that's a viable argument for him here, but that's how it reads.

Am I wrong?

Is it possible he will convince the judge that he is being unfairly attacked & punished?

I have a really hard time understanding what Elon would be arguing against in the settlement. The fines? Lowering them won't make any substantial difference that I can see. The board's chairmanship? From what I can tell, many investors actually want Elon out of that position with a more powerful and independent board. Investors responded very favorably to the settlement. Maybe it's primarily about the settlement money going from Elon and Tesla to short sellers. That I can understand. Yet, I don't think it's been determined who will get that money.

 

[beachbum77]

True.


Of course, my first EV conversion project. (Not actually a Superchief though, it was the st300, same body, smaller engine).

We had a Superchief in the 70's in Mexico. What a kick! Fun vehicle. How did you convert to EV?

 

[ZachShahan]

I think more than wrong or right, or more than to convince us of wrong or right:

The concern is that the SEC has repeatedly leaked during this process.

That due to the specific timing of the leaks, the SECs actions caused more harm, both in volume and SP movement than the “crime” by a massive factor.

That the SEC rushed an investigation because of its own fiscal year end.

And the SEC’s mission statement, which contains 3 sections, should have prevented all of the above.

As a result, the only beneficiary of the SECs actions are short sellers who are not investors.

Thanks. Very interesting extra info.

He has given us (CleanTechnica) 8 Twitter hearts in the past two weeks. Actually, 5 in the past 3 days. But many of them are about sales (with some estimating from us) and I was presuming that he wasn't allowed to RT about such things. Figured he sees this as harming his ability to support his company too. Could he be making that case as well? Is this process of the judge wanting proof the settlement was fair normal or very abnormal?

Login on Twitter

He finally retweeted a sales article (but from Bloomberg and it seems they ripped off our article from last month but at least they are publishing something useful), but that happened after he started tweeting about the SEC, so I assume after he felt he regained the right to tweet freely again — at least temporarily.

 

[Nocturnal]

I didn't pay enough attention in my finance classes when I got my MBA (or maybe I'm just rusty considering I work in IT rather than finance) so I can't comment on the particular financial analysis. For me, I'm long on Tesla (at a higher volume than is prudent) just based on the basics. People love Telsa, especially younger people. Millennials and GenZ aren't as easily swayed to brands as our parents and grandparents were. Despite that, Tesla has captured imagination. Tesla leads in EV tech, and has the potential to be a true tech company rather than just a car company. The cars are objectively comparable or superior to the competition while being greener and far cheaper to fuel. Sales are steadily going up, production is up, 35k Model 3 looks promising, model Y will be big.

There will be an inflection point where ICE cars become undesirable, and I think when it happens it may happen quite quickly. If Tesla is dominant in the space when that happens we may be looking at the next Amazon.

#1 first stock purchased by generation:
Greatest Gen - GE
Boomers - Apple
Millennials - Tesla

 

[tivoboy]

Of course I did. I know your role

If you don’t think I’m long you haven’t been watching.

 

[AMN]

Have a large buy @255. Come on shorts, bring it.

Elon is a pothead. GM's FSD tech is better. The market is overheated anyway. Tariffs are in. Dollar is getting stronger. Tesla will increase capex in Q4, turning EPS negative. Bring it!

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Seems like Elon really hates short selling. I proposed a solution to him on twitter. If you guys could like it, I think it'd work out for all parties. Please retweet at Elon.

DL on Twitter

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Twitter = gun