TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[copyhacker]

We’re below where we were in July of 2014. Over 4 years ago.

In case you don't remember July of 2014:
- No Autopilot
- No Model X
- A vague intention of a Model 3 someday
- A total of about 40K Model S sold ever
- GAAP loss of $62M
- Delivery guidance of 35K vehicles for all of 2014

Sure, makes sense.

 

[jhm]

Buying NOW comes across as an emotional reaction, not well thought out.

It's a bit like being at a party, taking advantage of one drunk girl rather than getting on with your stud life and enjoying all of the girls...

A young bull and an old bull are at the top of a hill. : Jokes

RU a Georgetown Prep alum? Joking about rape is really inappropriate.

Mod: Original post deleted.

 

[beachbum77]

Guys, do you know why are there so many shares available for shorting all of the sudden? Also borrow rate has dropped:

IBorrow Desk

There haven't been so many shares available for shorting since last year.

My theory is that weak longs / some institutional shareholders are dumping their shares and shorts are taking the opportunity for covering. Any thoughts?

The $300-260 cycle has been playing well for some time now. With the weekend coming and Musk being so unpredictable, I would cover here if I was a short-seller. For all we know he could announce a go-private move at $320 tomorrow...this time with funding actually secured.

 

[Nocturnal]

If TSLA keeps going up and then down I'm going to go broke buying the dips. (unless they aren't the real dips and I will wind up going actually broke)

 

[JRP3]

You can say that since you bought in when the SP was in low double digits. Would you feel the same way if 20%+ of your shares value had evaporated?

I've bought more shares in the triple digits than double digits.

 

[Boomer19]

Don’t count on November 7th having that big of an impact. It will take the absence of the fed tax credit with continued strong sales and the payoff of some of those large debts to remove a couple major short thesis items.

what’s nov 7?

bloomberg still sowing earnings date estimated to be halloween, which is weird, but 5th wednesday after qtr end

 

[SO16]

LOL... You need to keep up with the thread posts. We netted $440k in the last 7 days. All family money. I am personally back in off the sidelines with both calls and puts. I even posted a copy of one of my personal accounts at E-Trade just to prove my positions were valid, not fantasy.

If you supplemented your long shares with a small options strategy your losses would be much lower. Just a suggestion.

I’m happy for you. Honest I am! I don’t read every post. If I am more than 4 pages behind, I jump up to the last 4 pages. I would be even more impressed if this could have been done without the need of writing articles with questionable spin. (Like what many shorts do.)

I just keep buying on dips to help offset the loss. I think what really counts is at the end of the game, am I up or down. Or better yet, did I invest in things that I believe in and are good for the world. I could have gloated just a handful of weeks ago and poof, now gone. So I have learned to never gloat until I quit the game completely. Only THEN can I claim true victory or loss.

Making money, is wonderful. A clear conscious, priceless.

 

[beachbum77]

what’s nov 7?

bloomberg still sowing earnings date estimated to be halloween, which is weird, but 5th wednesday after qtr end

Until Tesla actually announces a firm date it could be anywhere from Oct 31-Nov 7. But we all know we are talking about the ER.

 

[Xpert]

I am actually having doubts that the stock price will go up from a good quarter. The FUD machine is that strong that it just might defy logic.

Even with luvb2b's model and you apply a 1 year forward PE of 20, the sp should be at 20. So the rest is made up of musk premium. PE method needs at least another quarter to draw a straight line for a projection.


Tsla is usually a good buy when 7 day rsi falls below 20. A very rare event usually.

luvb2b model isnt meant to be used for forward PE. it's used to prove Tesla is at a starting point of profitability and no longer losing money or going bankruptcy. and let's not forget that the large number of shorts in Tesla right now believe in this bankruptcy thesis.

In addition, applying a PE of 20 is a very poor measurement of Tesla valuation at best. This is what the short trolls have been using to compare to GM/Ford. Try using growth instead, that's how the stock price is measured at present stage and rightly so. I don't have the data offhand but according to this site, Tesla has been growing revenue of 266% per year on average. With GF3 in china, high demand cars, a huge line of future products, growth rate should keep going. This growth is what Tesla valuation is based on and it is therefore, cheap at this price.

Let's not also forget that only some weeks ago, Saudi investors and some other automakers were willing to pay $420/share, not for a 20 PE, but for the future growth and cash generation (and some other reasons). This is almost 40% fire sale. Once this blows over, the stock should come back to the norm in the $300ish.

Happy shopping!

 

[Garlands]

The whole market is down just like yesterday, dont think the tweet has had that much of an affect.

 

[sundaymorning]

luvb2b model isnt meant to be used for forward PE. it's used to prove Tesla is at a starting point of profitability and no longer losing money or going bankruptcy. and let's not forget that the large number of shorts in Tesla right now believe in this bankruptcy thesis.

In addition, applying a PE of 20 is a very poor measurement of Tesla valuation at best. This is what the short trolls have been using to compare to GM/Ford. Try using growth instead, that's how the stock price is measured at present stage and rightly so. I don't have the data offhand but according to this site, Tesla has been growing revenue of 266% per year on average. With GF3 in china, high demand cars, a huge line of future products, growth rate should keep going. This growth is what Tesla valuation is based on and it is therefore, cheap at this price.

Let's not also forget that only some weeks ago, Saudi investors and some other automakers were willing to pay $420/share, not for a 20 PE, but for the future growth and cash generation (and some other reasons). This is almost 40% fire sale. Once this blows over, the stock should come back to the norm in the $300ish.

Happy shopping!

Shorts are in for a very big surprise in November.

 

[hpartsch]

Just curious, sorry if this has been discussed previously -- but how will this 20 million fine affect Tesla's future profitability? Will it kill 4th Quarter or be spread out over many quarters?

 

[KarenRei]

Just curious, sorry if this has been discussed previously -- but how will this 20 million fine affect Tesla's future profitability? Will it kill 4th Quarter or be spread out over many quarters?

The fine is worth the profit on about 2k Model 3s. It's not going to make or break Q4.

 

[SpaceCash]

If you’re not seeing that this can get to 25x you’re not watching the same movie.

25X P/E ratio for SP. I agree

 

[emir-t]

My longness is being tested. I hope the reversal is close.

 

[beachbum77]

I've bought more shares in the triple digits than double digits.

With a 1 as the first digit I suspect

Hey. Do you actually own that Attex Superchief?

 

[beachbum77]

I’m happy for you. Honest I am! I don’t read every post. If I am more than 4 pages behind, I jump up to the last 4 pages. I would be even more impressed if this could have been done without the need of writing articles with questionable spin. (Like what many shorts do.)

I just keep buying on dips to help offset the loss. I think what really counts is at the end of the game, am I up or down. Or better yet, did I invest in things that I believe in and are good for the world. I could have gloated just a handful of weeks ago and poof, now gone. So I have learned to never gloat until I quit the game completely. Only THEN can I claim true victory or loss.

Making money, is wonderful. A clear conscious, priceless.

Don't feel bad. I went away for most of Tuesday and came back to being 42 pages behind.

 

[Xpert]

The $300-260 cycle has been playing well for some time now. With the weekend coming and Musk being so unpredictable, I would cover here if I was a short-seller. For all we know he could announce a go-private move at $320 tomorrow...this time with funding actually secured.

Agreed not huge upside for shorts at this price, a lot of shorts covered last Friday when it hit 260ish. Another go-private is not out of the question, but I'd say more like $350-$400. Musk has a very creative mind he won't let the shorts win easily. Let's see if he will come up with something this weekend. he has a lot of levers to pull: Another go-private, or announce actual GF3 timeline being accelerated, or profit, or GF4 agreement/timeline, or model Y/semi timeline, or some huge power pack contracts.

 

[Huskyf]

Yeah DJO drop 250 points not help all Market actually

 

[humbaba]

Guys, do you know why are there so many shares available for shorting all of the sudden? Also borrow rate has dropped:

IBorrow Desk

There haven't been so many shares available for shorting since last year.

My theory is that weak longs / some institutional shareholders are dumping their shares and shorts are taking the opportunity for covering. Any thoughts?

That would seem likely to me. If true, based on Ihor's charts for SP/short interest that should indicate a rise -- certainly up until now they have been mirror reflections.

Edited to add: looking at today's data that sure looks like a 600,000 share cover. What else might cause a big increase in share availability for shorting? Or am I misunderstanding the data?