TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mrwuffles]

OT



Personally I support "money where your mouth is" regulations: analysts should be required to put substantial parts of their personal wealth into the stocks they analyze, unhedged, and without compensation by their employer for losses, and should be required to disclose their trades. I think that would solve all the conflicts of interest. If GS is buying TSLA and the analyst gets a "wink wink nod nod" to issue a "sell" report on TSLA, he's not going to do it if he has to sell TSLA himself.

It's a pretty radical idea though.

Yeah, that would never go over well though since the government couldn't even compel people to buy health insurance for their own health and financial well-being. I'm for separating buy and sell-side completely. No company should be allowed to do both. Also, I think sell side shouldn't be allowed to employ their own analysts; or if they are, the reports should be internal only.

SEC Speech: Analysts Conflicts of Interest: Taking Steps to Remove Bias (Lori Richards) does anyone know if these rules are still valid? Particularly the disclosures part. I rarely see disclosures that I think are emphasized sufficiently. When Spiegel is interviewed, for example on Cheddar with Napoleon, they didn't state how he spends all day on Twitter bashing Tesla.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes, AFAIK. It's all calls purchased in Interactive Brokers, to be sold (not executed) - that should be instant, no? But I've never done this before (the shortest turnaround I've ever tried on options trades was something like 5 hours, and even that was very unusual for me... I'm not a day trader), so if anyone knows otherwise, let me know.

I have dual US-Icelandic tax liability. Iceland has a single 22% capital gains rate. The US taxes short-term gains at 40%. I lose my US tax liability early next year (theoretically). So if I can delay realizing the gains until after I lose my US liability, my takehome increases by 78%/60% - 1 = 30% higher takehome. Plus, I have a moral objection to giving the US money when they shouldn't be demanding tax liability for me in the first place (they're one of only two countries on Earth - the other being Eritrea - that demands annual tax filings from non-residents and considers all income, regardless of origin, subject to taxation - and even with all issues of finance aside, I want nothing to do with them)

For a non-US resident, US citizenship is the gift that keeps on taking

Looks like something I had to fill out when I opened my trading account with my bank (I don't remember whether IB requested such forms when I opened with them). But looking over it better, it sounds like I must have filed a W9 instead? Probably...


I'll look into whether IB has such instantaneous transaction options. I imagine that they'd have to be at whatever the ask price was if I wanted them to go through instantaneously, no setting of limits. So that guarantees losing out on the bid-ask spread.

No, I don't.



The not-advice is greatly appreciated!

@KarenRei, I feel I was patient enough by not saying anything until now. But could you please stop with your specific money moving challenges and car insurance challenges in market thread action?
Please and thanks. Aren't you moderator now?

 

[ktrivedi70]

OT

Unfortunately, Q4 ends on New Year's Eve. Some banks close on New Year's Eve, though apparently most of them don't. The day before is a Sunday. I wouldn't bet on all transactions posting on New Year's Eve.



Mayyybe. Or maybe the cash flow will come through on January 2.

Doesn't accrural accounting (which I'm pretty sure is how major corporations operate) imply that the money involved in a sale is recorded at the time of sale and not when the money is actually wired over? If that's so, then as long as the car was delivered before Jan 1, the accounts should reflect that transaction. Or am I wrong here? Would love someone with an actual background in this to weigh in.

 

[KarenRei]

@KarenRei, I feel I was patient enough by not saying anything until now. But could you please stop with your specific money moving challenges and car insurance challenges in market thread action?
Please and thanks. Aren't you moderator now?

Nobody has talked about taxes at all in the past half hour, the post you responded to was from before the market opened today, and I haven't written a thing about Tesla's inconsistent policy toward insurance since yesterday evening after-hours where it was a relatively brief mention - but if you want to resurrect topics in order to say don't resurrect them, sure, do that.

And no, I'm not.

 

[neroden]

I agree with everything you're saying, but!... (and I know not to use 'but' in a sentence, so it's intentional )

Replied privately. Public version of it is: I have more conservatism in my positioning than it might appear from what I've posted publicly. I am screwed if TSLA goes to $0, but not if it goes to $150.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Doesn't accrural accounting (which I'm pretty sure is how major corporations operate) imply that the money involved in a sale is recorded at the time of sale and not when the money is actually wired over? If that's so, then as long as the car was delivered before Jan 1, the accounts should reflect that transaction. Or am I wrong here? Would love someone with an actual background in this to weigh in.

So you're going to let someone drive away with a car before you've received the money for it?

That's generally not how consumer transactions work. First you send the money, then you get the product.

It's also not sustainable. You're pulling those cars out of Q1 and into Q4, which just makes Q1 harder.

 

[Unpilot]

If everybody stopped posting about cat's, dog's, investing strategy's, tax issues,insurance problems,analysts failures, boring co news,option trading plans,warning about option trading plans,examples of option trading plans....well I would have nothing to read on this 20 hour layover in the garden spot of america...Akron OH.

So please post away.

p.s. Yes I am THAT addicted to TMC

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This stock is so out of sync with major stocks. It’s like Nio. It’s a toy that can be manipulated because of low volumes.

Hopefully that will go both ways again.

 

[ggr]

Mod: there's a whole thread about Technical Analysis. Take all such discussion there (posts are being moved). More posts here will be deleted. --ggr

 

[ZsoZso]

So, a guy who never seems to be correct when it comes to Tesla, and also seems to have a pretty poor track record as a whole, is able to tank a stock. Simply amazing the damage this guy has done without any historical support for his having a knowledge of the company that he continuously bashes. From the below link:

David Tamberrino
Goldman Sachs
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #4,399 out of 5,107 Analysts on TipRanks(#10,471 out of 11,683 overall experts)

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/david-tamberrino

Maybe the markets are relying more on the MS report from Adam Jonas. But even he has not been all that accurate on Tesla as of late. I am not sure how the views of these two guys outweigh all the positive analyst reports that have come out recently, and, more importantly, all the positive information that seems to be in the market around Tesla these days. In my view, there is nothing that justifies the precipitous decline over the last few days, and there was much to justify the dramatic increase in price before the unfounded decline. Hopefully rationality takes over in what seems to currently be an irrational market for Tesla's stock.

Yup, my cat has a better trading record:

 

[anthonyj]

This stock is so out of sync with major stocks. It’s like Nio. It’s a toy that can be manipulated because of low volumes.

Hopefully that will go both ways again.

The problem is, these are large sudden drops ($377 to 333 in two days). This makes people fear buying at the highs. It also causes people to panic sell. Fundamentals truly don’t matter with this stock. We’re back to October 29th levels.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is today "Change your Avatar" day... having a hard time figuring out who's who.

Apparently I’m on your ignore list.

 

[Unpilot]

Apparently I’m on your ignore list.

Can we have a change your avatar back day cause that cat is scaring the *sugar* out of me.

 

[Nocturnal]

Doesn't accrural accounting (which I'm pretty sure is how major corporations operate) imply that the money involved in a sale is recorded at the time of sale and not when the money is actually wired over? If that's so, then as long as the car was delivered before Jan 1, the accounts should reflect that transaction. Or am I wrong here? Would love someone with an actual background in this to weigh in.

I'm not an accountant, but have some basic corporate finance/accounting education and experience. That is my understanding. The money is "earned" at the time of sale.

 

[Unpilot]

were the hell is my popcorn.

 

[Mobius484]

Cloudy with 100% of FUD storms!

Glad I’m Long TSLA.

Looking forward to Q4 and ‘19, the growth of Tesla Energy, Model 3 mania sweeping the country/globe. Grid disruption. Solar ramp. Also looking forward to eventual arrival of the competition.

Last I checked the SP this am, it was bouncing around like it usually does during FUD storms, so I’m going skiing! Love rallying the Tesla up the mnt rd.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

TSLA closing in on parity with NASDAQ.

ED: Or, maybe not...

 

[shrspeedblade]

So you're going to let someone drive away with a car before you've received the money for it?

That's generally not how consumer transactions work. First you send the money, then you get the product.

It's also not sustainable. You're pulling those cars out of Q1 and into Q4, which just makes Q1 harder.

I almost spit coffee all over my keyboard when I read this.

In the auto business, deals are unwound regularly when dealerships can get the contract signed and let them take the car home but then can't get the consumer financed.
Not how all businesses work, and arguably a vestige of our greasy auto dealership legacy, but it's the reality of the car biz (U.S.) right now.

 

[Cherry Wine]

@tivoboy said he might pick up some 12/21 $345c if they hit $3.00. They're now trading at ~$3.40.

 

[Toolsmack]

Matthew S Unterman on Twitter

Ihor’s vacation replacements update on Tesla short interest.

440,000 net short covers from 12/7 - 12/18.

I was actually hoping the short interest had shot up after the past three days, the fact that it hasn’t adds a different lense to look at the recent price fall.

Please remember that these numbers are S3 algorithms and have proven to be inaccurate at times and will be updated with official release from the market twice a month. Add sufficient grains of salt