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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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... a common complaint about Tesla from Europe is those cars are too big for their road....

Well to be direct, thats simply not true. Tesla's are in size not larger than other cars here. Its also not an issue at all in small city streets here. Don't know here this view is coming from. Never heard that complaint from anybody driving the S and X in Europe.

Hang on,
1) So far, in Europe a Tesla is a Model S/X.
2) A Model S/X is similar in size to e.g. Audi A8.
3) Some European countries have cities and roads that have not changed since the medieval times, where such cars really are less practical.

In the mid 20th century Germany had the opportunity to rebuild and modernize many of their cities, so this country is less impacted by this issue. Most Northern European cities had their houses built of wood and a great many of those have burnt down over the centuries, also offering the opportunity for modernizing the city layout. But many Mediterranean cities have a core of stone buildings that has not changed much over many centuries, and there driving (and parking) in a large car can be less practical. I have also a feeling that Mediterranean city planners typically are more reluctant to convert narrow streets into pedestrian only streets.

A number of rural, mountainous, secondary roads are also very narrow.

Even if they want to, some of these countries also lack the funds to modernize their roads to reflect the size of modern, large cars and the increased amount of traffic.

I have at some point complained here about driving my Audi A8 in Italy, with this being one reason that I am getting a Model 3. I have experienced the same issues in France, Spain and Greece.

Similarly, I have (previously here mentioned) the anecdote of my Italian wife, who has twice parallel parked after which someone came and offered to help, assuming that she was stuck in the tight space. I think having to deal with less space in Southern Europe is real.
 
These small dips that you call "noise" are hugely profitable to options traders. We made more money in the last seven days then we made all last year which was also a new record. Where has being long, and focused on the future, gotten you in the last 7 days? ;)
I don't think those who are "focused on the future" put much weight on a week.
Nor should they.
Robin
 
Can you imagine going to a dealer to buy a Tesla? Ugh. Also Tesla's true advantages are battery technology and the supercharger network (oh and an army of fans!) I am sure that when there are 3 or 4 hundred thousand vehicles on the road in the US, you might start getting independent services focused on Teslas.

I can. I think people would pay that extra percent to see a lot inventory, test drive the car, and have a service center less than 5 miles from their house, have parts readily available, and not wait an hour to talk to customer service. A -lot- of car buyers want to see and touch what they are buying and they will never change. Like it or not, that is the reality we live in
 
I think you're making a good and fair point, but the reason it doesn't work for most manufacturers is because of the wafer thin margins in ICE car manufacturing, especially in the lower end of the market. If you look at Apple, they have a lot of vertical integration, especially on those things that give them an advantage (Retail, CPU and Software). I can remember the days when you had to go to some dark corner of your least favorite electronics store to check out the latest Mac, and it was usually unplugged or damaged! Retain stores completely changed that.

Can you imagine going to a dealer to buy a Tesla? Ugh. Also Tesla's true advantages are battery technology and the supercharger network (oh and an army of fans!) I am sure that when there are 3 or 4 hundred thousand vehicles on the road in the US, you might start getting independent services focused on Teslas.
I found me agreeing with you more and more. Apple is exactly the example I also want to use here. They seems to also do a lot of OK things and in combination they win.

Apple is behind Google and even Microsoft when it comes to distributed computing and service oriented architecture which is the backbone of their "next growth point": software and services. That didn't prevent them from making killings.
 

Some excerpts from Rand re: Chinese Gov't negotiating tactics: Chinese Political Negotiating Behavior

Period of Assessment
Chinese officials are skilled in protracting a negotiation to explore the limits of their adversary's views, flexibility, and patience. They will resist exposing their own position until their counterparts' stand is fully known and their endurance has been well tested.

Facilitating maneuvers. The Chinese try to conduct negotiations on their own territory, as this gives them maximum control over the ambience of official exchanges. They seek to establish a positive mood through meticulous orchestration of hospitality (cuisine, sightseeing, etc.), media play, banquet toasts, and protocol. They may attempt to minimize confrontation or differences of view through subtle and indirect presentation of their positions. They may communicate difficult messages through trusted intermediaries. And when they seek to avoid the breakdown of a negotiation, they may resort to stalling tactics or reach a partial agreement while reserving their own position on important issues on which they do not wish to compromise.

Pressure tactics. PRC officials will resort to a variety of tactics to put an interlocutor on the defensive and make him feel he has minimal control over the negotiating process. They are skilled at making a foreign counterpart appear to be the supplicant or demandeur in the relationship. They play political adversaries against each other and may alternate hard and accommodating moods by shifting from "bad guy" to "good guy" officials. They may urge a foreign negotiator to accommodate to their position using the argument that if he does not, his "friends" in the PRC leadership will be weakened by failure to reach agreement. And they tend to put pressure on a sympathetic counterpart negotiator on the assumption that a "friend" will make a special effort to repair problems in the relationship.

The Chinese often present themselves as the injured party, seeking to shame an interlocutor with recitation of faults on the part of his government or his failure to live up to past agreements or to the "spirit" of mutually accepted principles. They are meticulous record-keepers and will hold a negotiator responsible for his past words and the commitments of his predecessors. They are skilled at using the press to create public pressures on a foreign negotiating team. And they may seek to trap a negotiator against a time deadline (so that he must make decisions under pressure).

The essential quality of Chinese pressure tactics is to make the foreign negotiator, with whom they have gone to some lengths to develop a personal, or "friendly," association, feel that his positive relationship with China is in jeopardy, that he has not done enough to warrant being considered an "old friend," and that he must do more for the relationship to justify Chinese support and good will. It is this tension of the relationship game that gives dealings with the Chinese much of their distinctive quality.

End Game
When PRC officials believe that they have tested the limits of their negotiating counterparts' position and that a formal understanding serves their interests, they can move rapidly to conclude an agreement.

^^^^
That will be USA tactic....
 
I can. I think people would pay that extra percent to see a lot inventory, test drive the car, and have a service center less than 5 miles from their house, have parts readily available, and not wait an hour to talk to customer service. A -lot- of car buyers want to see and touch what they are buying and they will never change. Like it or not, that is the reality we live in
Sure, but for some inexplicable reason the dealerships for other electric cars are mostly managing to do worse than Tesla. They don't have electric cars available to demonstrate, they don't have parts, they don't have customer service...
 
Others are using algorithms for laziness. (Much nicer to get paid without actually doing work. Set the algorithm going and go out to your three-martini lunch.) This includes the idiotic headline-reader algorithms which are prone to being manipulated by market manipulators.

I'm sorry, but I have to call you out on this, because it's nonsense.

Traders aren't creating algo trading so they can take longer lunches - although plenty of companies have implemented algo trading to reduce reliance on traders. Algo trading is entirely about faster rules based trading based on pretty short term signals. Other types of automated trading using machine learning might take into account longer term trends etc and broader market conditions, but by and large human traders are better at doing that right now, than machines. Incidentally machine learning that uses NLP, for example ORX News or Bloomberg, is a lot more sophisticated than you imply when you talk about 'idiotic headline readers'. Such cognitive assistance goes to traders, not directly to autonomous machines. At least not anywhere that I know of, and this is literally my area of professional expertise.

Incidentally, the front running you mentioned (I assume you're referring to the type of trading mentioned in Flash Boys) is a specific type of Algo Trading (HFT) which today is impossible to do manually. However in the good old days, this was very much done manually and even had a fancy name - arbitrage. Arbitrage was not, and still is not illegal.

Almost all HFT does a kind of arbitrage, picking up fractions of cents on the very small movements in price. What you read in Flashboys (which is truly front running) is not the majority of algo-trading, even if your best ethical and political scruples might think that's true.
 
I think you're making a good and fair point, but the reason it doesn't work for most manufacturers is because of the wafer thin margins in ICE car manufacturing, especially in the lower end of the market. If you look at Apple, they have a lot of vertical integration, especially on those things that give them an advantage (Retail, CPU and Software). I can remember the days when you had to go to some dark corner of your least favorite electronics store to check out the latest Mac, and it was usually unplugged or damaged! Retain stores completely changed that.

Can you imagine going to a dealer to buy a Tesla? Ugh. Also Tesla's true advantages are battery technology and the supercharger network (oh and an army of fans!) I am sure that when there are 3 or 4 hundred thousand vehicles on the road in the US, you might start getting independent services focused on Teslas.
I think you are confused on the point of "dealership" an establishment authorized to buy and sell specific goods, especially motor vehicles. Wherever Tesla is licensed to sell cars they are operating dealerships. The only difference is they are company-owned rather than franchises. They are providing most of the same services as all other dealerships with the exception of off-brand used car sales.

Tesla would have the same wafer-thin margins if they were selling cars wholesale. They are pocketing that margin and using it to pay the costs of operating their own dealerships and the Supercharger network. However, up to this point the system has not been working very well or been overall profitable. As far as customer service being any better is laughable at this time. Go read the delivery threads here on TMC. The anger and frustration over delivery delays and cancellations has not stopped with the end of Q3 and continues today.
 
These small dips that you call "noise" are hugely profitable to options traders. We made more money in the last seven days then we made all last year which was also a new record. Where has being long, and focused on the future, gotten you in the last 7 days? ;)

It’s sad that people have been reduced to only “how much money can I make” as being the only metric in our lives. No wonder humanity is f’d.
 
I think you are confused on the point of "dealership" an establishment authorized to buy and sell specific goods, especially motor vehicles. Wherever Tesla is licensed to sell cars they are operating dealerships. The only difference is they are company-owned rather than franchises. They are providing most of the same services as all other dealerships with the exception of off-brand used car sales.

Tesla would have the same wafer-thin margins if they were selling cars wholesale. They are pocketing that margin and using it to pay the costs of operating their own dealerships and the Supercharger network. However, up to this point the system has not been working very well or been overall profitable. As far as customer service being any better is laughable at this time. Go read the delivery threads here on TMC. The anger and frustration over delivery delays and cancellations has not stopped with the end of Q3 and continues today.

FWIW: Delivery delays are production related.....a third party dealer providing Tesla vehicles would still have delays.

Having said that, re: deliveries, the S & X have become very predictable and despite the volume, I don't doubt that after this ramp up period, the 3 will mirror the delivery efficiency of the other two.

As an owner/long, what's heartening to me is that there is minimal level of product complaints re: the 3.

It is very subdued given the volume delivered. Please note that the early X's had frequent FWD & latch issues that caused stumbles....we're just not seeing that with the Model 3.
 
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They're now running around 250K/year Model 3 in the $50-$60K range + 100K Model S/X in an even *higher* price range.

To further support your argument, current Q4 APS is even higher, it's currently at ~$62k according to the Troy tracker:

Code:
Q1/2018  $55,925
Q2/2018  $55,424
Q3/2018  $60,332
Q4/2018  $62,092 (est.)

So, ASP has been increasing steadily, as Tesla ran out of demand in the U.S., forced to sell less and less expensive, lower trim level cars ... :D
 
It’s sad that people have been reduced to only “how much money can I make” as being the only metric in our lives. No wonder humanity is f’d.
This is the Market Action 2018: Investor Roundtable thread. Not the "how can we save the world" thread. I am sticking to the subject at hand as GGR has mandated.

Start up the other thread and I will be happy to discuss how our fund donates some of our profits each year to causes geared towards extending human life on this planet.
 
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Any thoughts as to why TSLA is down ~3% more than NASDAQ and ~4% more than DJIA and S&P? Surely not because of that laughable Autopilot report, is it? Has another poorly-rated analyst come out of the woodwork to reaffirm the same negative guidance they've had for the past year or something?
 
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No real news. It's just the market really, tech is down big. You rarely see AMZN -2,5%, BABA -5%. etc.
TSLA volume is quite low compared to the general market though. Less than 50% of the daily average at this point.

I think it's the rise in interest rates. Remember, stock markets love low interest rates.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
 
Hi,

I just received an e-mail from my broker stating:

A voluntary tender on Tesla Motors Inc (US88160R1014) is being conducted by Baker Mills LLC, enabling its holders to sell their stock or to reject the tender offer:

Detailed Bid Information:

Option 1 - Accept

- Receive US$199.00 for each share held by Tesla Motors Inc - US88160R1014

Option 2 - Take No Action (default)
- Do nothing (default)

How to proceed:

Shareholders who are interested to accept the offer need to send a signed letter stating their intention until 10/25/2018 at 5:00 pm

Does anyone received a similar e-mail or know what's happening ???
This is just crazy...
Of course I will say NO o_O
 
No, you are not an idiot.

I was on the other side of that trade. I took naked shorts just under 380 and covered them today (still have puts). But in this case, you are not a fool.

Elon lied. Read the SEC complaint. He flat-out lied. And a key part of Elon's settlement is that he's not allowed to refute the SEC's case. They're forcing him have his Twitter go through a review process.

In US markets, when a CEO makes a claim like that, it's believable. Imagine a tech startup CEO announcing they'd received an acquisition offer that didn't exist in writing yet. It's just absurd. You don't screw around with these announcements and proceedings like a multi-billion equity purchase. You don't nonchalantly tease it on Twitter. And his best defense was that he had a verbal offer? That's not how this works...

You should join the lawsuits. What Elon did caused you damages, and you have a legitimate legal case. Sign up for one of the class actions.

FA, I could not agree more... That is not how this works at all...
People were damaged, on both sides... By a flippant tweet...
Not. Good...
 
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