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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's not a gift; it's a debt that must be re-paid (or re-financed) in a year. It will probably be on the Balance Sheet 1Q19 in the note that details debt obligations as "Non-Recourse Debt"
FirebirdAlpha
Member
Good analysis on Tesla's cash flow: Perseid Capital - Tesla Cashflow Projection
I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of InsideEV's January and February numbers. This was a huge cliff in demand, and it's likely the force behind Tesla...
Put simply, the SEC can make Tesla and Musk's lives miserable. You don't taunt a police officer who pulls you over, and Elon shouldn't have taunted the SEC. It achieves nothing.
It's also quite interesting to look back now. In 2017, Tesla promised that they would be making 10,000 Model 3s per week, and they'd deliver themselves to your door.
I wonder what he will try to promise with the Model Y tonight.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of InsideEV's January and February numbers. This was a huge cliff in demand, and it's likely the force behind Tesla...
- Continuing layoffs, such as 1/3rd of their recruiting department
- Considering closing stores, moving sales online, and slashing store pay
- Slashing prices
Put simply, the SEC can make Tesla and Musk's lives miserable. You don't taunt a police officer who pulls you over, and Elon shouldn't have taunted the SEC. It achieves nothing.
It's also quite interesting to look back now. In 2017, Tesla promised that they would be making 10,000 Model 3s per week, and they'd deliver themselves to your door.
I wonder what he will try to promise with the Model Y tonight.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
$294
Nice little pop to start the day. People trying to jump on the bandwagon before tonight's reveal?
Dan
Nice little pop to start the day. People trying to jump on the bandwagon before tonight's reveal?
Dan
Taneja promoted from within the company. This is a good sign, to me. Outsider who come in to high level positions at Tesla often can't cut it. Same with Kirkhorn, but we already knew that.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Sounds like Fred digging for clicks from an old story by sensationalizing it as well as mis directing the timing. He's learning from CNBC I guess. Really a shame to see him digress like he has. I won't read his articles anymore and won't visit his site. Kinda sad.
Dan
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I don't think that's the SEC's opinion.
1)
Firstly, they are laying out their central position pretty clearly on page 1 of their motion:
Motion for Order to Show Cause – #18 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com
On February 19, 2019, Musk tweeted, “Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019.” Musk did not seek or receive pre-approval prior to publishing this tweet, which was inaccurate and disseminated to over 24 million people. Musk has thus violated the Court’s Final Judgment by engaging in the very conduct that the pre-approval provision of the Final Judgment was designed to prevent.
On February 19, 2019, Musk tweeted, “Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019.” Musk did not seek or receive pre-approval prior to publishing this tweet, which was inaccurate and disseminated to over 24 million people. Musk has thus violated the Court’s Final Judgment by engaging in the very conduct that the pre-approval provision of the Final Judgment was designed to prevent.
I.e. the SEC finds the first tweet in violation of the settlement already, and they insist that it should have been pre-approved. Not qualified by the existence of the second tweet.
2)
Furthermore the SEC insists on characterizing the second tweet as a "correction":
A few hours later, at 11:41 PM ET, Musk published another tweet correcting his 7:15 tweet: “Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k” (the “11:41 tweet”).
Elon and Tesla insist that the second tweet was a "clarification", out of abundance of caution - there was nothing to correct.
Note that whether there's anything to 'correct' in the first tweet is a question that can be proven independently of the existence of the second tweet. In fact review of readily available past Tesla guidance and communications here on TMC confirms Elon's and Tesla's view.
The SEC does use the "Meant to say" language of the second tweet to argue that it was a correction to the first tweet - but there's several meanings of that idiom, only one of which implies a correction:
- the other is to imply a clarification of potentially ambiguous information,
- another possible interpretation is that Elon's lawyer reviewing the first tweet wanted the second tweet to override the whole first tweet, which the "Meant to say" language certainly achieves.
3)
Finally, and rather importantly, the SEC misconstrues the flow of tweets and entirely ignores the true first tweet which was sent minutes before the "around 500k" tweet, to which Elon's other tweets were only replies:
The SEC regurgitates the August $420 events in great detail over several pages, but somehow doesn't find the space to mention the true first "4000 Tesla cars" tweet where Elon started proudly celebrating Tesla achievements even once...
(I believe this omission of key factual context might rise to the level of malicious prosecution - obviously difficult to prove and I don't think Elon's lawyers will go there.)
I do it all the time. Out of the ~ 5 times I've been pulled over I've paid $0 in speeding tickets.
There was plenty of discussion. Feel free to check for yourself. InsideEV's numbers are very different from edmund's, kbb, alphahat...This game is getting tiring. Every quarter there's a "demand cliff." Maybe one day there will be, maybe it will be this quarter. But with data out there, it doesn't make sense. Every short loves to focus on InsideEVs numbers for US and completely ignore deliveries going to the rest of the world.
It will be yet another "Kodak Moment" for the ICE manufacturers, oil, and such. It will be a digital image for the rest of us.
Ah the old what the heck is going on going on ...all this arguing with ghosts.
This I clicked show ignored content
Mod: STOP. The next time I find a poster commenting in this now very, very old and frankly juvenile fashion, both that post and the next few he or she makes - regardless of their quality - will be deleted.
Harken to the disreputable Mr Cohen's admonition to the even more reprehensible Mr Gosar's repugnant display of just a short time back. And if you don't know whereof this refers, do your research.
This I clicked show ignored content
Mod: STOP. The next time I find a poster commenting in this now very, very old and frankly juvenile fashion, both that post and the next few he or she makes - regardless of their quality - will be deleted.
Harken to the disreputable Mr Cohen's admonition to the even more reprehensible Mr Gosar's repugnant display of just a short time back. And if you don't know whereof this refers, do your research.
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that’s what I said last Friday. Someone try to keep it under 295? Well, I want a Y.
Krugerrand
Meow
Discussed a few times in the past in depth. Conclusion: We’ve no way to be accurate because there’s not enough hard data and there’s just too many variables and things that can go wrong or right on a day to day basis.
First of all you need to know the ‘designed’ run rate of each part. Going to the Schuler website can’t tell you that. At best it’ll give you a run rate range for a similar press line, at worse it’ll give you max run rate.
Run rate for class A body panels can be as low as 12 strokes per minute or as high as 20ish. That doesn’t seem too big a range at first glance, but it might as well be night and day when you’re talking 10’s of thousands of parts every single day.
Each die set can have a different run rate and it would be wrong to assume they are all designed for max press line run rate. That’s not how it works. Run rate is determined by many factors but essentially it boils down to the part you’re making; the material it’s made from including the specs of that material, the shaping/depth of draw of various stages, the complexity of the part and then how good the design of the dies are to achieve the desired result.
If you think they run max run rate on each die set every day, all day long - hahahaha. Not how it works in real life. Poo happens.
That’s one factor explained is very simplistic terms. There are quite literally dozens upon dozens of other factors that would need to be considered. We don’t have that information.
I’d take your figure and cut it in half. It won’t be an accurate number, but it’s much more likely to be in the achieveable realm.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Wow, ron batron and I have the same taste in stocks. We both saw the same future for Iridium.
Can't resist pulling out all the stops on this over-optimistic promise from 2017 - can you? I think you should be focused on the reality that Tesla is delivering on a promise of a $35k Model 3. No, you probably wanted Tesla to blow another $2 billion in a vain attempt to raise Fremont production from 7,000 a week to 10,000 a week. Instead they decided to fast forward the Shanghai assembly plant since it made sense to make Model 3s for China in China - given our President started a trade war...not anticipated in 2017...
Mokuzai
Member
Woke up this morning on 3/14 and looked at the stock price which at the time was up $3.14 pre-market and this thread was on page 1,314. We close at $314 or open at $315.
Advice...what's that?
Advice...what's that?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that while January U.S. New Home Sales was 607k units instead of the expected 622k, which is a -15k miss, February was revised up from 621k to 652k, which is a +31k revision and so the 'miss' is technically -46k.
So while the market is freaking out a bit over the 652k->607k drop, the +31k revision wasn't priced in yet, plus even the 607k number which was probably the result of some seasonal effects such as a very cold winter is above all previous years except 2017, and is only slightly below 2017 levels.
So no ground for any housing market related worries I think - but together with the China deal delay to late April it's possibly a negative macro headwind for today.
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