Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

Let's not forget that Ark Invest can be described as ultra-bullish on TSLA, with a 5-year SP target of $4000 (I think).

They have a bear case price target of $700 in 5 Years assuming that EVs are the only thing that Tesla can execute on. Assuming the stars align and everything goes Tesla's way with autonomy and a full self driving taxi future, they think a $4000 price target is possible. That's a very wide range for ARK. The news wants to clickbait their headlines so they play up the $4k number.

 

[mongo]

Nope - definitely they have to sell SR in the US. It can start with SR+PUP for $39k, for sure. It would be bad PR if they sell SR first in China before US.

They are almost there, selling MR+PUP for $42k. So, SR+PUP for $39k should be possible.

Yah, low cost version of 3 for China will be made in China, likely with packs and drive units made in GF1 (to start).

 

[Cosmacelf]

The SEC forms for the Maxwell acquisition have been filed: 0001193125-19-044863 | SC TO-T | Tesla, Inc.

I think the S-4 has more meat in it.

0001193125-19-044857 | S-4 | Tesla, Inc.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Tesla's general counsel quit after 2 months. I'm guessing it was this tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[AlexS]

BTW., one small detail that got lost in the noise and freakout is the "4,000 cars" part of Elon's other tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe"​

With 10 ships headed for Europe and China I think our previous assumption was that each ship is loaded with about 3000 cars. If it's closer to 4000 on each ship instead, then that's 40,000 cars in Q1 so far, headed for Europe and China.

The Q1 estimate from @ReflexFunds that matches a "tiny profits" Q1 outcome assumed 34k Model 3 deliveries Europe+Asia. If most of the cars shipped by the end of February can be delivered to owners in Q1 then I think Europe+Asia deliveries will be comfortably beyond 34k.

This doesn't mean that all 4000 goes on one ship.
First ships got about 2000 cars on board.
I think it is safe to calculate 2500 cars per ship.

So 25000+ cars shipped on these 10 ships.

Next two weeks they still can load some ships to China and deliver them in 1st Q.

So in Q1 there will be around 30 000 model 3 deliveries overseas, I guess around 25 000 in US + Canada.

Maybe someone can estimate S+X deliveries?

 

[Krugerrand]

No, he wasn't ordered to not post material information via Twitter. The settlement called for Tesla to put a mechanism in place to properly control Elon posting market-moving information through Twitter.

It appears some sort of control mechanism was in place, as the tweet was quickly corrected before regular trading opened. Also, while after-market price rose a bit after Elon's tweet, the trading volume was less than 10k shares, which is low even by after-market trading standards.

Yeah, the control mechanism was Elon clarifying for the people who love to jump on anything he says and blow it out of proportion, pick it apart down to the molecular level, speculate it means something, anything, everything and conveniently forgot or not care to know how Elon communicates. He ALWAYS talks exiting run rate. And he always rounds up and estimates based on optimistic guesses. Like for real people.

 

[K_Dizzle]

You must be referring to the... Model W?

I thought more about the “model why”, the bastard cousin of the model y

 

[EVNow]

Whatever happened to the Tesla making pickup drivetrain for a major auto manufacturer ? If this was true, would it have to be in the annual report they filed ?

 

[PhaseWhite]

Tesla's general counsel quit after 2 months. I'm guessing it was this tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter

It's certainly possible. For those who clicked disagree: why else would this be effective immediately? To me it sounds like it was not a mutual decision on either Tesla or Mr. Butswinkas' part.

 

[EVNow]

MMD starts at 10 AM, just like yesterday.

 

[Chocochip]

They have a bear case price target of $700 in 5 Years assuming that EVs are the only thing that Tesla can execute on. Assuming the stars align and everything goes Tesla's way with autonomy and a full self driving taxi future, they think a $4000 price target is possible. That's a very wide range for ARK. The news wants to clickbait their headlines so they play up the $4k number.

Ok, fair enough, I guess I bought into the clickbait.

What put me off in that interview was an exchange early in the podcast when Cathie Wood explained Ark's outlandish, ultra-bullish estimate for the EV market (just to present the extremes of their thesis) and Elon replied with something like "Yeah, that sounds about right", causing Cathie Wood to go "Really? Wow!", suggesting even she didn't actually believe that target was realistically achievable. Either that or it was some uncontrolled, instinctive butt-kissing.

As an investor, I want a balanced analytical approach rather than what-if, super-optimistic scenarios. But I do appreciate that Elon's way is to get the public excited about possibilities, and it's sometimes tricky to separate that from company-related realistic guidance.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I think the S-4 has more meat in it.

0001193125-19-044857 | S-4 | Tesla, Inc.

From [Page 40]:
... Barclays reviewed and compared specific financial and operating data relating to Maxwell with selected companies that Barclays, based on its experience in the energy storage and related industries, deemed comparable to Maxwell. The selected comparable companies were:
• Arotech Corporation
• Camel Group Co. Ltd.
• EnerSys
• FuelCell Energy Inc.
• GS Yuasa Corporation
• Highpower International, Inc.
• Plug Power Inc.
• Ultralife Corporation

 

[EVNow]

It's certainly possible. For those who clicked disagree: why else would this be effective immediately? To me it sounds like it was not a mutual decision on either Tesla or Mr. Butswinkas' part.

This is the reason getting some high flying external guy doesn't work for Tesla. They invariably leave soon. When someone new is leaving - and someone with more company experience is taking over, it makes no sense to keep the new guy for a few more days/weeks.

 

[mad474]

Whatever happened to the Tesla making pickup drivetrain for a major auto manufacturer?

AFAIK we'll have to wait a couple of time units. And yes it (seems) true.

 

[JRP3]

So, a longer discharge cycle at the same constant current?

Yes. Basically more energy in the same weight, Wh/kg, equals more range.

 

[Cosmacelf]

More from the S-4, Tesla had been in contact with Maxwell for several years, but started talking to Maxwell mid 2018 about a strategic partnership. That seems to line up well from Maxwell’s public comments in their presentations about when the dry battery electrode process started bearing fruit.

 

[Cosmacelf]

From [Page 40]:
... Barclays reviewed and compared specific financial and operating data relating to Maxwell with selected companies that Barclays, based on its experience in the energy storage and related industries, deemed comparable to Maxwell. The selected comparable companies were:
• Arotech Corporation
• Camel Group Co. Ltd.
• EnerSys
• FuelCell Energy Inc.
• GS Yuasa Corporation
• Highpower International, Inc.
• Plug Power Inc.
• Ultralife Corporation

Without looking these up, I am guessing they all make batteries or battery components?

 

[AlMc]

Whatever happened to the Tesla making pickup drivetrain for a major auto manufacturer ? If this was true, would it have to be in the annual report they filed ?

AFAIK we'll have to wait a couple of time units. And yes it (seems) true.

Until Jerome announces it I will file it under 'rumor'

 

[sundaymorning]

This is why I don’t ever trust UBS and their analyst on Tesla:

Swiss banking giant UBS fined more than $5 billion in fraud case - CNN

Crooks.

 

[anthonyj]

It's certainly possible. For those who clicked disagree: why else would this be effective immediately? To me it sounds like it was not a mutual decision on either Tesla or Mr. Butswinkas' part.

Can’t be critical of Elon here. It’s like going to church and talking smack about Jesus (if you’re reading this Elon I still love u)

Tesla on Twitter

On another note, she bearish af!