TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ValueAnalyst]

Agreed on the institutional selling and careers. On unforced errors, they're probably unforced, but amplified more than it's fair, IMO.

Agreed; more of a reason to avoid unforced errors. I suggest a trusted person who shares the mission as deeply as Elon approves Tweets before they go out. This is in the best interest of Tesla, its employees, its investors, and its mission. I hope that Elon agrees.

Edit: I just tweeted this suggestion to Elon: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[phil0909]

The only reason I'm not near-certain that there will be one is the failure to reiterate guidance for a Q3 GAAP profit excl. ZEV credits in the delivery report.

Tesla never guided Q3 GAAP profit excl ZEV credits. They guided Q3 (and Q4) GAAP profit, period. Am I mistaken?

 

[Ludalicious]

Almost at Support of 245. Never thought I would ever see it drop that low. Just waiting on a reversal candle now and im back in. FML

 

[Off Shore]

I hope this motivates our government to act quickly, before it’s too late. If we go past a certain threshold, then there’s no coming back.

I had to put a funny on that because the site doesn't offer a sobbing emoji.

 

[SpudLime]

Sorry, i must have missed it in todays multiple pages of posts. Why are we down so much today? I didnt see a specific story or tweet. If it was said already, apologies and can you point me to the post?

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Tesla appears to have lost their second corporate controller this year: TempWorker on Twitter

Stock dipping below 250. I wonder what levels trigger Elon's margin calls.

@juanmedina, @gora321 - any reason for the "disagree" on the above? or just joining the cult that "all bad news must be disagreed"?

 

[tivoboy]

Okay, here are my levels that I am tracking towards:
As I've said all along, a re-test of the April ~244$ is warranted and coming. Note, that is also basically the 2017 low. so, somewhere between 240-245$ HAS to hold for a nice double bottom to be formed. My current buy is set at 246.50$ for 5% of the position. As we move UNDER 243.75$, I'll add another 10% of the level. then wait.

A move UNDER 239$ starts a move down to 220-225$ (YES, you read that right!). I don't see the $GS target of 210$ really realistic with all the changes, releases and moves toward profitability in the not TOO distant future. An over two year low of 185$ (not in adjusted terms) would require a significant macro event (global GDP, significant acceleration of rates above 3.35% US/10, all out China trade war, etc) or some NEW signifiant issue directly at Tesla (Musk out as CEO, board members quitting, not being replaced, M3 orders dropping, etc).

At an adjusted level the two year 185$ level COULD trade around 220-225$ today (which ISN'T good, but represents value to new $$ coming in for either a trade or longer term objectives). From there, something like the 330/340 calls for Feb trading at 2% could represent a nice hedge against a long position. I might move to do a 320/360 call spread in there.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OK, repeat topics, here's the summary. Did I miss anything before I go play?

1. Saudi's as possible investors vs a civil society over there
2. Tweets hurt, stop it... no they're necessary so people know
3. Elon's mental, no it's his fight and part of Tesla's problem
4. "Ignore the Headlines" vs What is Long? Paper loss is real.
5. GM sucks, and how much inventory do you see in this picture?
6. SEC is 2-faced (yup, pretty much)

Have a great weekend, look forward to your conclusions on Monday. My guess is SP goes up in 1st hour to $278, then down to $250 after another tweet.

Well call me clairvoyant, pretty darn close and he didn't even have to tweet. Picked up 50 more at this price.
How about that SpaceX 1st stage landing! Do you still doubt Elon? Live LONG and Prosper!

 

[Tslynk67]

Wow, some smart dumping going on today, the manipulators playing the down

Tesla never guided Q3 GAAP profit excl ZEV credits. They guided Q3 (and Q4) GAAP profit, period. Am I mistaken?

Well they didn't mention ZEV in that guidance, as far as I can remember.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Just a thought: if SP keeps going down Elon may well revive the privacy thing. But this time better prepared: funding secured in writing, 8k filing, after hours. The lower SP will make things easier.

We know he wants to keep small investors on board, and maybe he will find some way to do that, but if SP goes down a lot more small investors will get killed anyway.

It’s pretty clear that Elons number one reason for taking Tesla private - getting rid of the shorts - has only become more urgent to him during the last few weeks.

 

[AndyH]

The entire market is down, and so are all FANG stocks. A relief rally will likely occur once we show numbers.

There should be some uptick on settlement getting finalized and if Tesla finds some dependable new board members. There was also talk of a Saudi investment aswell that was supposed to be presented soon. Does anyone know anything more about that?

 

[Ludalicious]

Okay, here are my levels that I am tracking towards:
As I've said all along, a re-test of the April ~244$ is warranted and coming. Note, that is also basically the 2017 low. so, somewhere between 240-245$ HAS to hold for a nice double bottom to be formed. My current buy is set at 246.50$ for 5% of the position. As we move UNDER 243.75$, I'll add another 10% of the level. then wait.

A move UNDER 239$ starts a move down to 220-225$ (YES, you read that right!). I don't see the $GS target of 210$ really realistic with all the changes, releases and moves toward profitability in the not TOO distant future. An over two year low of 185$ (not in adjusted terms) would require a significant macro event (global GDP, significant acceleration of rates above 3.35% US/10, all out China trade war, etc) or some NEW signifiant issue directly at Tesla (Must out as CEO, board members quitting, not being replaced, M3 orders dropping, etc).

At an adjusted level the two year 185$ level should trade around 220-225$ today (which ISN'T good, but represents value to new $$ coming in for either a trade or longer term objectives). From there, something like the 330/340 calls for Feb trading at 2% could represent a nice hedge against a long position. I might move to do a 320/360 call spread in there.

Agree. Most people don't want to hear this though

 

[Krugerrand]

Yep, and every Tesla self-destructs as soon as battery and drivetrain warranty is up. Poof! Just like that.

Adding: It’s obviously a demand lever.

 

[vinnie97]

I'm a long in the red for the first time as as of today. I guess there's no choice but to ride it out now, come what may.

 

[beachbum77]

Small profit or small near-profit excluding ZEV credits, boosted by ZEV credits. Most likely a small (de minimis) GAAP profit, given the amount of careful tweaking of pricing and spending that's been obvious throughout Q3. The only reason I'm not near-certain that there will be one is the failure to reiterate guidance for a Q3 GAAP profit excl. ZEV credits in the delivery report.

The importance has, obviously, nothing to do with any lack or presence of profit on Q3. It's about how it changes the messaging. Even a near-miss eliminates the "incinerating cash" talking point. The debate transforms to a "one time engineered quarter vs. sustained profit" debate, which is much more favourable messaging.

There's still lots of potential bombs to be lobbed in the coming months, though.

Wow. we are in complete agreement. However, we seem to veer away on your expectation that a report like this will substantially increase the SP. Considering all of the levers that got pulled in Q3, if a profit no greater than 3Q16 is the result, I see clouds ahead and a rise up but still under $300 for the SP. I think what may have really spooked the institutions was Musk's last minute email to the employees that a profit was close by as of the final days of September. I will never understand why he wrote that even if it was true.

My concern is the costs to achieve the Q3 numbers may have been greater than expected in line with the economic "law of diminishing returns". I think it also could explain a return to a level of about 4,000 Model 3's per week according to Bloomberg. Until GF 3, this might be the best GM production level for now and reduces the pressure on the delivery teams to manageable levels.

 

[InDaClub]

I spent years resisting the urge to set some people on ignore, but in the last few days some really foul and unpleasant characters have crawled out of the drains to post utter garbage on this thread, and a few of the regulars have just become too much. So here's my current ignore list - makes for some odd responses, but I can only recommend it to others:

View attachment 341610

Thanks for posting - I've found it to be a huge help in cutting down on the BS/FUD.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/account/ignored
azaz,beachbum77,FirebirdAlpha,gtrplyr1,nursebee,Smokey4141,Teslie,trayloader

 

[humbaba]

Sorry, i must have missed it in todays multiple pages of posts. Why are we down so much today? I didnt see a specific story or tweet. If it was said already, apologies and can you point me to the post?

If the other posts that covered this incidentally doesn't do it for you: the markets are all down, $TSLA no exception. In other words, its all macros though some people have bridges to sell (mostly twitter).

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Wow. we are in complete agreement. However, we seem to veer away on your expectation that a report like this will substantially increase the SP. Considering all of the levers that got pulled in Q3, if a profit no greater than 3Q16 is the result, I see clouds ahead and a rise up but still under $300 for the SP. I think what may have really spooked the institutions was Musk's last minute email to the employees that a profit was close by as of the final days of September. I will never understand why he wrote that even if it was true.

My concern is the costs to achieve the Q3 numbers may have been greater than expected in line with the economic "law of diminishing returns". I think it also could explain a return to a level of about 4,000 Model 3's per week according to Bloomberg. Until GF 3, this might be the best GM production level for now.

I would expect a significant rise on that news just because expectations right now are so low. Consensus is negative cash flow and negative profit(GAAP and non-GAAP). If you have losses baked into the stock price and the result is actually positive earnings, one would expect the stock price to rise significantly. That goes doubly in Tesla's case, since much of the narrative currently is incoming BK.

 

[dc_h]

Just a thought: if SP keeps going down Elon may well revive the privacy thing. But this time better prepared: funding secured in writing, 8k filing, after hours. The lower SP will make things easier.

We know he want to keep small investors on board, and maybe he will find some way to do so, but if SP goes down a lot more small investors will get killed anyway.

It’s pretty clear that Elons number one reason for taking Tesla private - getting rid of the shorts - has only become more urgent to him during the last few weeks.

I still don’t know why it is or should be urgent, unless they are not cash flow positive this quarter and going forward. Unless Elon is playing the options game (illegal and ridiculously stupid) there is only pride making it urgent.
I’d prefer the stick be at 400, but until profits and SEC in rear view mirror, we are going to fight lower highs and lower lows.
This obsession with shorts has wasted so much energy. Elon should have a PR firm monitoring social media for false and especially libelous posting and getting after those people. They should be using data analytics to check if anyone is collaborating with fake news or timing investments based on news or govt announcements. Elon and investors should focus on earning less and growth.

I do post against Diogenes when he makes false or misleading claims, but I can see Tesla products are speaking for themselves. Bears only hope is that Tesla isn’t managing cash as well as Elon expected during the last earnings call. Bulls hope at this point is that Tesla managed cash well and turns a profit and projects a strong Q4.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I think it also could explain a return to a level of about 4,000 Model 3's per week according to Bloomberg. Until GF 3, this might be the best GM production level for now.

This makes absolutely zero sense. Staying at 4,000 Model S per week for the coming two years even though there is still a huge reservation list in the rest of the world, GF1 will produce increase battery production by 75% before the end of the year, and very litle capex is needed for a 7,000 to 8,000 capacity at Freemont. You can’t just make things up.

There, earned you 2 more bucks with my response.