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An Octogenarian Couple Shows Age is No Barrier for a Model S | Blog | Tesla Motors
An Octogenarian Couple Shows Age is No Barrier for a Model S | Blog | Tesla Motors
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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chickensevil
Active Member
From their perspective, first to notice. As in... noone else has thought to email IR about this. haha!
Wowzers. This is crazy how much the delivery time has moved out in the past few weeks. I don't know what to make of it.
1. It could be more orders coming in (ie., U.S., China, even Europe).
2. It could be production issues that Telsa is facing but hasn't revealed it.
I hope it's #1, but am concerned it could be #2 or a combination of both.
- - - Updated - - -
3. It could be Tesla is intentionally de-prioritizing U.S. orders, so that they can push China deliveries and even RHD markets as well.
R U Nuts? Clearly all US demand has crashed. They'll be firing the new 2000 manufacturers keeping only those willing to relocate to the new China factory. You should all sell your stock tomorrow ( I'll give you .$50 on the 'Mr Potter' dollar. R U listening K(ass)? ).
They've clearly run out of bat-cells, AI rebel bots are unionizing. Jeezzus, Tesla AND Elon told you US demand is up, either sell your stock to me or worry about your grandmother. Either way, it's time to get a grip and enjoy the ride into the future Elon and co are taking us.
They clearly have production issues: the demand outpaces production.:smile:
We had the whole discussion on this on the Short Term Price Movements thread. My final takeaway from it could be found here:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 460
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
A person who ordered a Model S end of last week here in Estonia also got an estimated delivery date in September. A week or two ago it was August and a month ago it was July so the push to September is interesting. If it's really demand spiking, then that's wonderful news 
But let's not blow this out of proportions. It's bad to see stories of collapsing and peaked demand, but now think if all the SA-s start to run with stories that Tesla demand has blown through the roof and expect major blowout quarterly sales numbers and then they come in at around average due to production constraints, then that's no good either. But it is a good indicator all around Though it's kind of demotivational for people as they've got to wait a long time now...
But let's not blow this out of proportions. It's bad to see stories of collapsing and peaked demand, but now think if all the SA-s start to run with stories that Tesla demand has blown through the roof and expect major blowout quarterly sales numbers and then they come in at around average due to production constraints, then that's no good either. But it is a good indicator all around Though it's kind of demotivational for people as they've got to wait a long time now...
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Although it may be frustrating, the wait times make this product more cool and desirable. Telling a rich guy that he can't have something for months makes him want it that much more.
If this backup was caused by supply issues, TSLA would have absolutely made that abundantly clear in the quarterly call (as they would have known about those issues then). Imagine the lawsuits if they didn't!!
Well, I have concluded this is an increase in demand from the second wave of people who are ordering Tesla's know that they see the first wave has not had any major issues or trouble with them and that the first wave are quite happy. Now that the guinea pigs have had their turn there are people who really want the Tesla. To some extent the longer wait time will add to demand as people on the fence want to get in line.A person who ordered a Model S end of last week here in Estonia also got an estimated delivery date in September. A week or two ago it was August and a month ago it was July so the push to September is interesting. If it's really demand spiking, then that's wonderful news
OK, we won't blow it out of proportion. But I think it is hard to argue anything other than Q3 production is almost sold out. Hopefully that isn't due to a supply constraint. Hopefully they will start the new line at 1,000 cars/week and produce 10,000 in Q3. They need to in order to deliver the 35,000 they promised.
In any event I am going to bet on the side that production is ramping on schedule and that demand is ever higher now that spring has hit and people have been seeing the Tesla on the road. I put even more of my hard earned money on TSLA today.
pz1975
Active Member
I think this is the best answer. Now that China is getting cars as well as the UK (soon), I think they are trying to equalize waiting times across the world so customers are all treated fairly no matter where they live. Thus, wait times for China have gone down and wait times for the US, Canada and the EU have gone up.
Stir all the demand together in one bowl and the global wait time becomes around 4 months - which is very impressive!
I can only imagine what the X wait times will be. I know 5 people who want a Tesla but are waiting for an X. I had to inform them that they should make a reservation to get one sooner - they didn't know one could/needed to do that.
"100% demand related. Not related to planned production issues at all."
Hi Dave
here is the full text (names removed) of my emails to and from Tesla Investor Relations. Only thing I noticed what might be worth getting clarified is the use of the qualifying phrase "planned production issues".
Does this help?
Although I'm in CA the VP in IR must not have been in Palo Alto but in an Eastern time zone. First email is on bottom. Most current on top.
Emails:
On May 19, 2014, at 10:02 AM,
Thanks
100% demand related. Not related to planned production issues at all.
VP IR - Tesla Motors
--------
On May 19, 2014, at 11:33 AM,
Thanks
That's great news. Some were speculating that there was a supplier bottleneck or that the factory was going to shut down for more than the planned one week in July.
Are those completely wrong?
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On May 19, 2014, at 7:54 AM,
Congratulations! You are the first to notice. We've been trying to tell investors that demand is growing even in our most mature markets, so wait times are extending. That's the answer.
VP IR - Tesla Motors
--------
On May 19, 2014
Hello
Can you tell me, as a holder of many shares of TSLA, why the estimated delivery dates reported on the Tesla website move back considerably to September?
Is it increased demand? China orders? Or?
Hi Dave
here is the full text (names removed) of my emails to and from Tesla Investor Relations. Only thing I noticed what might be worth getting clarified is the use of the qualifying phrase "planned production issues".
Does this help?
Although I'm in CA the VP in IR must not have been in Palo Alto but in an Eastern time zone. First email is on bottom. Most current on top.
Emails:
On May 19, 2014, at 10:02 AM,
Thanks
100% demand related. Not related to planned production issues at all.
VP IR - Tesla Motors
--------
On May 19, 2014, at 11:33 AM,
Thanks
That's great news. Some were speculating that there was a supplier bottleneck or that the factory was going to shut down for more than the planned one week in July.
Are those completely wrong?
--------
On May 19, 2014, at 7:54 AM,
Congratulations! You are the first to notice. We've been trying to tell investors that demand is growing even in our most mature markets, so wait times are extending. That's the answer.
VP IR - Tesla Motors
--------
On May 19, 2014
Hello
Can you tell me, as a holder of many shares of TSLA, why the estimated delivery dates reported on the Tesla website move back considerably to September?
Is it increased demand? China orders? Or?
Great, thanks for posting this. It's re-assuring to know there are no production hiccups.
chickensevil
Active Member
I would not be particularly worried about those choice words. That means that there have not been any unplanned production delays... Planned should mean things that have been specifically outlined during the last meeting... Which is simply the 1 week shutdown. Unplanned would be something either not mentioned previously, or possibly a trigger in their risks category.
bottom line, this is really great news all around. Tesla will be production constrained for the foreseeable future
bottom line, this is really great news all around. Tesla will be production constrained for the foreseeable future
Elon did say the shutdown would be "10 days or so." I went back to listen and be sure.I would not be particularly worried about those choice words. That means that there have not been any unplanned production delays... Planned should mean things that have been specifically outlined during the last meeting... Which is simply the 1 week shutdown. Unplanned would be something either not mentioned previously, or possibly a trigger in their risks category.
bottom line, this is really great news all around. Tesla will be production constrained for the foreseeable future
chickensevil
Active Member
Sorry thanks for the correction. I will go back to saying 2 weeks... I had seen some people go back and forth on the times, and it is easy to lose track of the correct length of time. (Note 2 weeks is because of the assumption that 10 days is 10 production days, not natural days)
I follow the non-investor forums and new orders are getting September for the delivery estimate.
I suspect it's largely due to China delivery time moving ahead for 4-5 months. Originally most of China orders made in Feb/March time frame was supposed to have car delivery by Q4. But right now we see a lot of reports that delivery time moving ahead to June/July/August time frame depending on the readiness of regional service center. With China delivery ramp up in Q2 and I think it'll be in full steam in Q3, which is coincident with all 7 Tesla stores setup by September. Because those China orders have much longer wait time than US orders, to be fair to all customers, so US delivery time has been inevitably delayed.
There are a couple of reasons I can speculate:
1) China order rate per week tops all countries around the world, so Tesla starts to prioritize the China delivery to please the customers
2) To be fair to all customers around the world, it doesn't make sense to have US customer have much less wait time than rest of the world. And also this helps to eliminate the FUD speculation that US demand slows down and thus global demand not promising
3) Originally the China delivery allocation for 2014 is ~5000, i.e. 1/3 of production growth. With the delivery time push ahead, I suspect we should see 5000 delivery to China by Q3 (probably 1500 in Q2 and 3500 in Q3). The Q4 should easily ship another 4000 or even more vehicles to China. So again, Tesla does not need to worry about demand in 2014 at all.
There are a couple of reasons I can speculate:
1) China order rate per week tops all countries around the world, so Tesla starts to prioritize the China delivery to please the customers
2) To be fair to all customers around the world, it doesn't make sense to have US customer have much less wait time than rest of the world. And also this helps to eliminate the FUD speculation that US demand slows down and thus global demand not promising
3) Originally the China delivery allocation for 2014 is ~5000, i.e. 1/3 of production growth. With the delivery time push ahead, I suspect we should see 5000 delivery to China by Q3 (probably 1500 in Q2 and 3500 in Q3). The Q4 should easily ship another 4000 or even more vehicles to China. So again, Tesla does not need to worry about demand in 2014 at all.
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