TSLA Investor Discussions

[CyberDutchie]

Btw. I reluctantly bought 100 yesterday at $31, in the hope to make some gain before I have to cut Tesla the check in (hopefully) December.

That's akin to gambling with such a volatile stock. I hope it works out for you of course.

Yeah, I can probably put my buy in the category "bad trades". I honestly didn't expect the effect of the Morgan Stanley upgrade to last only for one day. When they downgraded the stock last year the stock stayed down for weeks. Apparently a downgrade has more lasting impact than an upgrade...

 

[Fr23shjive]

What effect will a secondary offering have on the stock price? From the recent interviews that Elon has been giving it sounds like an option that they are seriously considering.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Yeah, I can probably put my buy in the category "bad trades". I honestly didn't expect the effect of the Morgan Stanley upgrade to last only for one day. When they downgraded the stock last year the stock stayed down for weeks. Apparently a downgrade has more lasting impact than an upgrade...

You almost never want to be buying into an already rising stock. At that point most of the good news is already baked in. Usually once its up a few points the fast money will exit and you can buy the dip.

Still though, if you hold the stock $31 isn't a bad entry point. The company looks to be worth a lot more than that, but the downside risks of a potential share dilution are still holding down the price. Plus an outright failure of the product is still a possibility which could ruin Tesla. That is a big problem as long as they only have a single product.

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What effect will a secondary offering have on the stock price? From the recent interviews that Elon has been giving it sounds like an option that they are seriously considering.

A secondary offering would dilute the value of your shares. The magnitude of the effect is dependent on how much money they need to raise, and the terms they have to raise it under. If Tesla goes to the table at the edge of failure the money folks can hold a gun to their head and (as an example) offer $200 million in cash for half the company.

If Tesla is not in danger of failing, but just needs cash to finance new R&D for future products, the leverage shifts to Tesla and a similar raise might only cost ~5-10% of the company. However, that sort of transaction might ultimately cause the stock to rise in spite of the dilution because it would be adding value to the company under favorable terms.

Regardless, Tesla badly needs to execute on the manufacturing end (and thus improve their balance sheet) if they want to avoid getting raped when or if they go to raise capital.

 

[NigelM]

What effect will a secondary offering have on the stock price? From the recent interviews that Elon has been giving it sounds like an option that they are seriously considering.

You have to remember that Elon was asked this today on Bloomberg TV. We're 9 days from the end of the quarter so there's absolutely no way he could confirm or deny it when asked; if it's a possibility he obviously had to leave that hanging and if it's off the table saying so would have been major news because he had said at the end of Q2 that it was "possible but not necessary right now". Under the circumstances he gave the best answer he could.

 

[daniel]

He brings traffic to the site. Us. Same with thestreet.com. We're the commodity.

Not me. I never go to sites like that. If stock pickers could really pick stocks, they'd be too busy making millions to write articles telling other folks what stocks to buy.

As for a secondary offering, I'd probably buy in, on the theory that money paid for new stock actually goes to the company. Assuming such a secondary offering is open to the public.

 

[Teslawisher]

Is this going to be expected to produce some kind of stock movement? Whether it be a blip, or a slightly longer term effect?

Toyota drops plan for widespread sales of electric car

 

[Oyvind.H]

Is this going to be expected to produce some kind of stock movement? Whether it be a blip, or a slightly longer term effect?

Toyota drops plan for widespread sales of electric car

I (and many others) would say every day other car companies are busy producing outdated gas-cars is a good day for Tesla. Why the other car companies are so far behind beats me, and it`s primarily a big advantage for Tesla. There`s a reason why people who get the electric experience never want to go back to gasoline cars.
Stockwise I`m not quite sure. There are still a lot of people out there who don`t know how brilliant EVs are, and those people might assume that it`s a setback for EVs and a proof of EVs still not having good enough technology. But as long as Tesla proves this assumption wrong, it`s positive for the stock long term.

Maybe hybrids are such money-makers for Toyota that they try to hold back the development of EVs? Very bad strategy indeed, but this is why good companies can fail (i.e. Kodak) and make it easy for new companies to emerge and become future market leaders.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Is this going to be expected to produce some kind of stock movement? Whether it be a blip, or a slightly longer term effect?

Toyota drops plan for widespread sales of electric car

I was a little concerned for TSLA initially given the RAV4-EV connection but, as Oyvind said, such short-sighted thinking by 'legacy' carmakers can only be good news for upstarts such as Tesla. We see this kind of pattern in the software world time and again; it's just that Tesla's disruptive ways will take a lot longer to move the needle. I'm holding tight onto TSLA.

 

[jerry33]

Maybe hybrids are such money-makers for Toyota that they try to hold back the development of EVs? Very bad strategy indeed, but this is why good companies can fail (i.e. Kodak) and make it easy for new companies to emerge and become future market leaders.

You need to remember who actually buys Toyotas--it's the dealers. Dealers do not want electric cars. They barely want hybrids but at least the hybrids have an expensive gas engine to maintain and they can replace expensive hybrid parts when there's not need to do so because most consumers are uninformed, so they've learned to live with it--but no dealer will push a hybrid over an ICE car.

 

[smorgasbord]

Do you believe Musk's pre-announcement hype? It's probably the closest thing we've had to a Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field in years. If you believe Musk when he says that it's the announcement that will make electric cars "make sense" to people for the first time, then you should consider it. I don't think the market has priced any such major impact announcement into the stock.

OK, folks - the announcement has happened. 6 charging locations today covering most of CA below 200 miles above Folsom. A bunch more going across most of the US within 2 years, and all of US and lower Canada within 5 years. Solar panels, excess juice goes back into the grid, and charging is free for Model S's capable of supercharging.

Stock closed at $30.66 today. Two questions to show your predictive prowess:
1) What will the stock open at tomorrow?
2) What will the high tomorrow be?
3) What will the low tomorrow be?

Answers must be posted before 6:30 AM PDT (9:30AM EDT) tomorrow.

 

[dmckinstry]

OK, folks - the announcement has happened. 6 charging locations today covering most of CA below 200 miles above Folsom. A bunch more going across most of the US within 2 years, and all of US and lower Canada within 5 years. Solar panels, excess juice goes back into the grid, and charging is free for Model S's capable of supercharging.

Stock closed at $30.66 today. Two questions to show your predictive prowess:
1) What will the stock open at tomorrow?
2) What will the high tomorrow be?
3) What will the low tomorrow be?

Answers must be posted before 6:30 AM PDT (9:30AM EDT) tomorrow.

As usual I haven't a clue. It will depend on whether it gets on the broadcasts in Europe tonight. For the U.S, will it be on the 10:00 pm news?

All I can say it, the charger looks the stylization of a rocket. Anyone going by one of those locations will be scratching their heads and asking "What the #@%& is that?" If they don't know about Tesla yet, a lot more are going to know about it now.

I can see why they had the unveiling at night.

 

[Zzzz...]

Stock will most likely drop below 29.00 by the end of the Wednesday.

But!!! While I would expect some downward pressure because of the ppl trying to buy shares before announcement and then getting rid of them in next few days... Short term fluctuations could force price to go upward or downward regardless of Supercharger announcement (doesn't matter what was it). So it is still mostly gamble at this point. Same forces that make price go up or down without any announcements during regular trading days would play. And I believe they are more powerful then "impression" from this "news". Anyhow, market would feel some downward pressure from ppl trying to gamble on this news.... But do not expect it to be a big one.

 

[blakegallagher]

I have no clue! I think this will make the Stock go up a lot over the long term as it will introduce and legitimize Tesla when they complete a coast to coast network. There is also already a significant number of potential customers who just found out they can make the one long trip they make every year with a 65kw Model S. It may not be tomorrow but I think this will drive the stock much higher . To clarify I think it will be a game changer. Genius to make it Free!

 

[CyberDutchie]

If I just look at myself, this announcement helps me justify the 60kWh pack versus the 40--just knowing you can get almost anywhere if needed.

If many people think like me, the average sales price of the Model S will be somewhere in the high $70k / low $80k, perhaps prompting some analyst to recalculate their revenue forecast for Tesla.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

If I just look at myself, this announcement helps me justify the 60kWh pack versus the 40--just knowing you can get almost anywhere if needed.

If many people think like me, the average sales price of the Model S will be somewhere in the high $70k / low $80k, perhaps prompting some analyst to recalculate their revenue forecast for Tesla.

and you travel for 'free'

 

[Oyvind.H]

Establishing this network reminds me of Apples iPhone and its ecosystem a few years ago. The car itself is extraordinary, but by creating this network Tesla leaves the competitors behind. And yes, it will clearly reduce range anxiety, and make the cheaper versions (excl. 40kw) of the Model S more attractive. And that`s the key to mass adoption ("affordable" and free of clear disadvantages .

The only thing that worries me about a proprietary charging network is the fact that it will easily work in the US if deployed strategically and fast, but that`s not gonna happen in Norway or Europe. This means that Tesla needs to explore other alternatives in Europe, which means the car is going to be delayed and not benefit from the same infrastructure you guys will get.

 

[spleen]

Establishing this network reminds me of Apples iPhone and its ecosystem a few years ago. The car itself is extraordinary, but by creating this network Tesla leaves the competitors behind. And yes, it will clearly reduce range anxiety, and make the cheapest versions of the Model S more attractive. And that`s the key to mass adoption ("cheap" and free of clear disadvantages .

The only thing that worries me about a proprietary charging network is the fact that it will easily work in the US if deployed strategically and fast, but that`s not gonna happen in Norway or Europe. This means that Tesla needs to explore other alternatives in Europe, which means the car is going to be delayed and not benefit from the same infrastructure you guys will get.

You mean less attractive since the 40 kWh car can't use these superchargers.

 

[Johann Koeber]

OK, folks - the announcement has happened. 6 charging locations today covering most of CA below 200 miles above Folsom. A bunch more going across most of the US within 2 years, and all of US and lower Canada within 5 years. Solar panels, excess juice goes back into the grid, and charging is free for Model S's capable of supercharging.

Stock closed at $30.66 today. Two questions to show your predictive prowess:
1) What will the stock open at tomorrow?
2) What will the high tomorrow be?
3) What will the low tomorrow be?

Answers must be posted before 6:30 AM PDT (9:30AM EDT) tomorrow.

The stock is up 2 % in the European market while the markets in general are heading slightly down.

My guesses would be:
a) 31.50
b) 32.20
c) 30.50

But don't trade on these -
I am wrong most of the time
and my trading strategy
does not require I am right.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Tesla just announced the issue of new stock.

See the SEC documents.
http://ir.teslamotors.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyID=ABEA-4CW8X0&fileid=S1193125-12-402291&filekey=1318605&filename=1193125-12-402291.pdf

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Tesla published a current report.

- lower number of delivered vehicles in Q3
- revenue in Q3 $44 to $46 M
- negative gross margin in Q3 because of fewer vehicles delivered AND lower than expected payments from the Daimler deal
- DOE loan is fully drawn
- 255 model S produced as of Sept. 23
- 77 of them during the last week
- delivery expected: 200-225 vehicles in Q3 and 2,500 to 3,000 in Q4

Quite some news in there.

 

[ibcs]

Great information on Tesla.

Thanks for posting link. Today's market will be very interesting.