TSLA Investor Discussions

[firstinflite]

That information is from this article. Tesla Triumphs but Questions Remain - TheStreet

And from a store employee, so take with a grain of salt.

Don't forget that we still haven't touched European/Asia/British/Australian orders yet, those orders account for over 3,000 model S. US orders are priority right now.

Secondly, I don't think that the arrival came from a trustworthy source, I see Kramers face on there and I know he likes bashing on tesla, the guy is seldomly right about his wild picks anyway.

Thirdly, many people haven't finalized their orders yet, most are waiting till tesla gets the bug issues resolved and after broder incident, they're going to wait a little longer.

Lastly, no one knows about cancellations, it's all speculative at this point and to read into rumors before a cc report is not a good strategy. Remember broder?

 

[Zzzz...]

That information is from this article. Tesla Triumphs but Questions Remain - TheStreet

And from a store employee, so take with a grain of salt.

From what I see/know, they are confusing reservation time with "time to configure your S" email. From time to finalize if you selected all options you could get delivery window as low as 30 days. But if you reserve now and select 85kWh with standard suspension, it would probably will take more then 6 month for Tesla to produce that car.

 

[jcstp]

am curious to know the monthly deliverynumbers till now!
Hope they divulge it tomorrow!

 

[Beckler]

This must be the largest 1-day jump? 6%? Come on...

 

[Teslawisher]

OMG. This sucks! I was so wanting the dip to get some more in before it took off.

It doesn't really suck.. I'm glad tesla is doing well. But, still would like to get in some more. Guess I had better do it now anyway. Going to just keep going up. Will wait for tomorrows report first though.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Market seems to really want the stock price up here when Tesla reports. Interesting.

Big players coming back to make their play. I'm as totally convinced of that as I was last week when it pulled back after the announcement confusion.

I think I mentioned something about doubting the impact of the NY Times article. My recollection is that I said it wouldn't do anything good for the stock on Monday, but I was skeptical of its long term impact.

Frankly the current pullback looks more related to the confusion over the earnings report. My assumption was that the stock was being bid up in preparation for the earnings report, and then we'd see a sell off barring some really great forward guidance.

Now the market, having been cruelly denied it's newsgasm, is just deflating with the realization that "buy the rumor, sell the news" was left jilted at the alter. The big money can't just sit around doing nothing waiting on the main chance that has now been delayed a week.

 

[firstinflite]

OMG. This sucks! I was so wanting the dip to get some more in before it took off.

It doesn't really suck.. I'm glad tesla is doing well. But, still would like to get in some more. Guess I had better do it now anyway. Going to just keep going up. Will wait for tomorrows report first though.

When buying stocks its impossible to time the lowest low and sell at the highest high. Count your money, place your bet when you feel comfortable with the price; otherwise you might miss out on the ride if you wait for a specific price. Should the price go down, don't panic, think long term. I believe this stock will get expensive after conference calls. ELON will be appearing on national television on thursday, 1 day after CC on the Jimmy Kimmel show.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Don't forget that we still haven't touched European/Asia/British/Australian orders yet, those orders account for over 3,000 model S. US orders are priority right now.

Secondly, I don't think that the arrival came from a trustworthy source, I see Kramers face on there and I know he likes bashing on tesla, the guy is seldomly right about his wild picks anyway.

Thirdly, many people haven't finalized their orders yet, most are waiting till tesla gets the bug issues resolved and after broder incident, they're going to wait a little longer.

Lastly, no one knows about cancellations, it's all speculative at this point and to read into rumors before a cc report is not a good strategy. Remember broder?

I would love for you to be right, but the only hypothesis that has actual data behind it requires for there to have been a substantial failure of reservation holders to have finalized when given the chance. For whatever reason.
- TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 483

As to Europe, EU car sales had their worst month in ages (like a decade?) in January. (edit: reading the link, its more like "never"; at least since this publication started tracking this in 1990).
- European New Car Sales Reach New Lows | The Truth About Cars

The EU is firmly in an austerity driven recession.
- EU recession deepened at end of last year - The Irish Times - Fri, Feb 15, 2013

Walmart had a class 3 freakout about January sales.
- Wal-Marts freaking out about the economy. Should the rest of us?

The U.S. had negative growth last quarter for the first time since 2009.
- U.S. Growth Halted as Federal Spending Fell in 4th Quarter - NYTimes.com

The Sequester goes into effect next month and will have a substantial negative impact on the U.S. economy.
- As Obama calls for short-term fix to avert sequester, CBO reports falling deficits - Washington Post

Look. There are bright sides, and alternative views on all of these stories. But to say Tesla isn't faced with substantial economic headwinds is to just ignore reality. I have a lot of hope for Tesla this year despite all of this, but just assuming that everything must be going gangbusters in the face of data which indicate it might not be just doesn't make much sense to me.

I'm waiting with breathless anticipation for the conference call, and I'd be tickled pink if they report better than expected forward guidance and a low rate of cancellations on reservations. But despite my earlier arguments with Omer (and others) in favor of a low cancellation rate, I see no evidence of that, while there is a large body of evidence pointing to high cancellations.

Edit2: I should point out that I'd lay odds that the U.S. is in an austerity driven recession even as we speak. Nobody in academia or the government is willing to say that because of the reputational costs of being wrong, but I see no particular reason to conclude that we aren't, or soon will be if the Sequester takes hold.

I'm comfortable being wrong, but it always seems like these things are already well underway by the time you start seeing data like we've been seeing.

 

[Doug_G]

This Thread is Too Big

One of the reasons for creating this new subforum was to let this bloated thread die. It's time! So please move on... nothing to see here...

Before you make a new thread, please scan the other threads in this subforum to see if there is an appropriate place for your message. Make your moderators' lives easier!

 

[ppl]

1

I would love for you to be right, but the only hypothesis that has actual data behind it requires for there to have been a substantial failure of reservation holders to have finalized when given the chance. For whatever reason.
- TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 483

As to Europe, EU car sales had their worst month in ages (like a decade?) in January. (edit: reading the link, its more like "never"; at least since this publication started tracking this in 1990).
- European New Car Sales Reach New Lows | The Truth About Cars

The EU is firmly in an austerity driven recession.
- EU recession deepened at end of last year - The Irish Times - Fri, Feb 15, 2013

Walmart had a class 3 freakout about January sales.
- Wal-Marts freaking out about the economy. Should the rest of us?

The U.S. had negative growth last quarter for the first time since 2009.
- U.S. Growth Halted as Federal Spending Fell in 4th Quarter - NYTimes.com

The Sequester goes into effect next month and will have a substantial negative impact on the U.S. economy.
- As Obama calls for short-term fix to avert sequester, CBO reports falling deficits - Washington Post

Look. There are bright sides, and alternative views on all of these stories. But to say Tesla isn't faced with substantial economic headwinds is to just ignore reality. I have a lot of hope for Tesla this year despite all of this, but just assuming that everything must be going gangbusters in the face of data which indicate it might not be just doesn't make much sense to me.

I'm waiting with breathless anticipation for the conference call, and I'd be tickled pink if they report better than expected forward guidance and a low rate of cancellations on reservations. But despite my earlier arguments with Omer (and others) in favor of a low cancellation rate, I see no evidence of that, while there is a large body of evidence pointing to high cancellations.

Edit2: I should point out that I'd lay odds that the U.S. is in an austerity driven recession even as we speak. Nobody in academia or the government is willing to say that because of the reputational costs of being wrong, but I see no particular reason to conclude that we aren't, or soon will be if the Sequester takes hold.

I'm comfortable being wrong, but it always seems like these things are already well underway by the time you start seeing data like we've been seeing.

Ok evidence. My car completed today vin 573x. My reservation my reservation 132xx. I waited three weeks to finalized after getting email. 3700 known cancellations before 4th qtr. that leaves 3840 reservation unaccounted for. Subtract fro those anyone who ordered either red, standard suspension, 40 kw. These are not yet into production. That accounts for most others. I think it's progress that the shorts have moved on to new arguments.

 

[sp4rk]

1
Ok evidence. My car completed today vin 573x. My reservation my reservation 132xx. I waited three weeks to finalized after getting email. 3700 known cancellations before 4th qtr. that leaves 3840 reservation unaccounted for.

I go by VIN (not reservation nr.) If you are VIN 573x and it's about to be shipped, that means they shipped 1,500 cars in the past 14 days? My VIN is 417x. Delivered 10 days. 36,000 a year? Tesla staff told me yesterday they're shipping in 3-6 months.

 

[ppl]

I go by VIN (not reservation nr.) If you are VIN 573x and it's about to be shipped, that means they shipped 1,500 cars in the past 14 days? My VIN is 417x. Delivered 10 days. 36,000 a year? Tesla staff told me yesterday they're shipping in 3-6 months.

Hard to extrapolate over week or two. The person handling my paper work apologized. He is management and doesn't usually do this. "They have everyone out delivering". Of course yours could have been delayed. Everything moving very quickly. I actually requested they hold car to the second week in march. I believe the surprise if there is a surprise is that the ramp up did not stop at 400. Musk doesn't do increments or grow slowly. He buys an enormous factory, more than needed right then, he doesn't go to the moon but rather mars

 

[JRP3]

One of the reasons for creating this new subforum was to let this bloated thread die. It's time! So please move on... nothing to see here...

Before you make a new thread, please scan the other threads in this subforum to see if there is an appropriate place for your message. Make your moderators' lives easier!

You might need to lock this thread if we aren't supposed to post in it any longer.

 

[Robert.Boston]

[moderator's note: We were hoping to avoid the need to lock it, but I think you're right, @JRP3. Now that there is a whole sub-forum for investment-related discussion, let's end this thread. Please open new threads selectively to discuss particular topics.]