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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I’m starting to lean this way too. Tesla has more to gain by boosting Q1 versus over delivering on Q4.
Plus they never promised any MIC deliveries this month. I only see them delivering from GF3 in December if they absolutely have to to reach 360k for the year.
Can Tesla afford to sit on inventory and not deliver them?
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
From: Boss Short
To: Tesla fanboy
Subject: price-capping
Well, I'm glad you think its "Outrageous" but I'm pretty disappointed.
If we didn't have weak willed shorts, we would have pushed it back under 350.
There is no reason it should be rising. There's no good news and no bad news.
It should be sinking like a rock.
Could I interest you in shorting a few thousand shares ?
I'll wave the interest for the first 90 days.
Come on. Don't you want to be a millionaire ?
Sincerely
Boss Short
To: Tesla fanboy
Subject: price-capping
Well, I'm glad you think its "Outrageous" but I'm pretty disappointed.
If we didn't have weak willed shorts, we would have pushed it back under 350.
There is no reason it should be rising. There's no good news and no bad news.
It should be sinking like a rock.
Could I interest you in shorting a few thousand shares ?
I'll wave the interest for the first 90 days.
Come on. Don't you want to be a millionaire ?
Sincerely
Boss Short
With 10 billion in the bank? Sure, their cash flow can wait a couple weeks.
Edit: @Doggydogworld reminds me that Tesla does not report in transit anymore.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Absolutely, even in Q3 they were "hiding" some of their organic cash flow in preemptive inventory buildup and other working capital items. Headline FCF was $370m, real cash flow was around $950m.
i think 100k is still very darn good!
they won’t sandbag.
but they’re in position where they don’t have to. any in transit for Q1 will be beneficial.
question - will they break out MIC deliveries from MIUS?
It's possible that the cars are missing some part that has been held up logistically but is easy to put in later. Like, for example, the new autopilot computer. They could ship to stores for display and demo, but not for sale.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I noticed this pattern a few weeks ago: FAANG rallies (there was a smaller Nasdaq rally today of +0.40%) cap TSLA, macro drops support TSLA.
Hypothesis: long-short funds have maxed out their shorting power, but are able to short more TSLA if their long positions rise in mark-to-market value.
There might also be end of year portfolio deleveraging as well.
Weird price action indeed.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
10 billion, lol.
Tesla does not report in-transit. There's no reason to report them as WIP nor would the auditors smile on that. I don't see any reason to exclude them in the P&D report, either, though they may call them out separately. As to the original question, it doesn't cost Tesla anything to hold cars in inventory until Q1, except a few pennies of interest. It also moves revenue and expenses from Q4 into Q1, which they may or may not care about. In general it's better to just run the business and ignore accounting games.
Why do you say this? Where will they put all the MIC Model 3s when the parking lots at GF3 are full? There are still 20 days left in Q4.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
2019 range hit seems a lock either way, so Tesla doesn't need to play games with inventory anymore. 4Q or 1Q it's a win.
As long as forward guidance is sandbagged from here on out, we're all set.
As long as forward guidance is sandbagged from here on out, we're all set.
Do you get referral fees?
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
closing percent increase was eleventy-one. May those of short stature prosper while those of short interest fail
This is correct - no individual short trade can be in the money at an ATH, but you said 'no one can be in the money shorting when a stock is at an all-time high', which to me implied you didn't know what you were talking about
Q1 is difficult to get QoQ increases. Delaying GF3 sales allows Tesla to negate seasonality and provide a delivery increase. It also buffers things for the transition to locally produced packs versus the ones imported from GF1 (reportedly only 7k or so). Better to delay and have steady output than start delivery and have to stop. If they sold in Q4, then had hiccups in Q1, it could result in a numbers reduction which media would jump all over.
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humbaba
sleeping until $7000
So Porsche is trying to convince people that the EPA testing does not reflect reality. Maybe its my age, but you'd have no argument from me there -- but it would go in the opposite direction. Few people ever got the sticker mileage and, at least in my neck of the woods, its a running joke.
So either I'm completely out of touch, or Porsche is desperately (but likely uselessly) trying to pull a wizard of Oz routine.
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Not wanting to turn this into the taycan’t thread, but thought it worth pointing that even the $35.4k basic model 3 SR has better range:
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