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I always considered myself a super bull on Tesla, but the stock has gone up considerably faster than myself and pretty much everyone else imagined. I have several thoughts around this topic, but my general idea is that we have a massive conservative bias with our Tesla predictions. Take a look...

I guess I should be clearer too. A lot of Japanese know an EV revolution is coming, but they are powerless or unwilling to try to influence the direction of Toyota/Honda/Nissan. I imagine there are something like 15 levels of managers between the engineers and the CEO. The incentives of...

What is your prediction for Japanese auto then? I guess I see even VW failing for the most part, and they are somewhat leaders in ICE companies transitioning to EVs. So for me, I would expect Japanese auto to fail too, but they are more insulated on the domestic demand side imo. I have kept...

This was the article talking about ~10% and 89%: The Japanese Automotive Industry - Japan Industry News > In fact, automotive related manufacturing takes up 89 percent of the country’s largest manufacturing sector, the transportation machinery industry. Automotive components and vehicles...

I have been thinking a lot lately of the Japanese automakers and how they will fare. I am quite familiar with Japan, having went to school there, and with Japanese relatives. Also I was listening to this amazing podcast about WW2 and the Japanese which I know Grimes and Elon listened to...

Ah yeah - I just rechecked and iphone revenue has gone up a lot since I last checked. U.S. iPhone Users Spent An Average of $100 on Apps in 2019, Up 27% from 2018 About 100 per device according to this. 50 million devices is not a lot in the context of smartphones (And it will take 5+ years to...

Tires? Yes - probably already possible via service right? Coffee/meals? Doubtful Parking, hotels, car wash? No Generally speaking, while Elon is in charge, I highly doubt the screen is going to be monitized for upselling... it's not customer/product centric, with the exception of car related...

IMO this is a misconception. Average iPhone app revenue is about $10 a year per phone. With 1 million Teslas, that's 10 million a year. With 10 million Teslas, that's 100 million. Obviously this is nothing. This is the reason Tesla is in no rush to make an app store. For comparison there are...

Don't see it as an argument so much as a constructive debate - I have seen your other posts and learnt from them... I think by watching AlphaZero you can tell that weak AI can have massively better intuition than humans in the realm of chess... you can extrapolate this to self-driving. Tesla's...

You are presenting a false equivalence fallacy here. Pierre, has a university degree in computer science, but worked his life as an auto analyst... he has little to no exposure to cutting edge AI. Then there is Lex Fridman, who is an enthusiastic albeit weak AI researcher, with a bunch of biases...

Regarding AI and FSD I think he has absolutely no idea though... like most analysts. Let's summarise his points and then break them down to show how wrong he is: > He starts with saying AI is not artificial intelligence, it is artificial stupidity, and his basic premise is that AI will not be...

I find it hard to disagree with much from CP, though I do have a few small disagreements. I totally agree with him regarding Corona though, with the deaths/infected ratio being the main question, and the amount of uncertainty around the unreported infected. The deaths number is most likely...

I really like Chamath Palihapitiya but this interview was so ****ing terrible - they hardly let him speak, so I'll summarise so you don't have to listen to the crap: * CP is looking to hedge vs Corona - thinks it could be bad, or just another flu like thing - depending on denominator of...

I would aim 95% blame at driver, 5% at failed crash attenuator/faded road markings/fallen over signs cones, 0% at Tesla - they are doing their best to make car safe as fast as possible, and autopilot already much safer. Also 0% at phones. You can also be distracted by using a dildo in a car...

What about passengers, what about trains and buses... I think you and NTSB need to think things through a bit first :p

God these NTSB guys are complete morons. They want to have an app lock out phone usage when driving.... how exactly are they planning that lol. Sounds like the UK porn filter idea.

I suspect VW will make the transition to EVs. They are putting in the most capital and effort compared to all the other ICE companies. This period is their equivalent of Tesla's production hell. A lot of the criticisms above could have been applied to Tesla during the M3 ramp. Diess has the...

Rumor of Tesla Brazil Gigafactory Project Approaching by Government Reading this has got me thinking about Elon's plans for Battery Day and rapid scaling to 2TWh. To get to 2TWh he will most likely build a bunch more factories quite quickly all with integrated battery He mentioned at some...

If you ever want some confidence that Tesla is going to 5000 in 5 years, just take a look at how bad the competition is. With one or two exceptions, none of the offerings are either good looking or aerodynamic. They are for the most part still thinking you can take an existing model of car and...

I have followed Elon, Tesla and SpaceX pretty closely since they were founded, and I have been thinking lately about how Elon would see the whole picture. Jim Keller was saying he broke problems down into what is possible from a physics point of view, and then worked backwards figuring out how...

They don't come and ask a random engineer to install a backdoor. They go in at the top level, with complete secrecy and with the threat of jail time for disclosure, and get their own NSA engineers to install the backdoor. Almost everyone at the companies targeted by PRISM were totally unaware...

Once Starship comes online in a few years, the cost of launch will come down dramatically, and there will be no-one that can compete with that rocket. Starlink will be relatively cheap to maintain, depending on how much SpaceX chooses to charge Starlink.

I guess you did not read anything about Snowden's leaks and PRISM: Secret program gives NSA, FBI backdoor access to Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft data

I had dinner with an old colleague from Germany a few weeks ago. We were talking about Tesla, and he mentioned: * The stock price is overvalued, cause Tesla only produces a small number of EVs * EVs are environmentally unfriendly * Batteries are not recyclable * There are not enough raw...

I'm curious what people think the timeframe for FSD is now we have more info on dojo/their reengineering of their NNs. Elon said by 10 years FSD will be a commodity and all auto players will have it. About 6 months ago some people on this forum were saying it is 10 years out. Personally I...

Of course Gali's videos are speculative - he continually says as such on his battery vids, and he doesn't purport to be a battery scientist. His intentions are not to harvest views - he is just someone who is very passionate about Tesla/EVs. And the gist of his videos are all about the 1 million...

This is just condescending and wrong. Have you even watched his videos? Gali merely uncovered research papers and connections between several major battery players to show the direction the battery tech is going - it's not like he is presenting his own battery tech. Every now and then I will...

Rudy Pal Lev Parnas Releases Audio of Trump Calling for Ukraine Ambassador’s Firing From about 56 min they talk about EVs/auto industry... worth listening.

Didn't they say that CFO&CEO would be signing off every expense to cut costs in an earnings call a while back? It sounds to me that at Tesla, ZK is very involved in cost savings...

I was thinking about this earlier. The trouble with building an EV is that there are so many competencies required. Core competencies for making EVs: * Batteries * Drive trains * At scale auto manufacturing (supply chain management/logistics/robotics) This is quite different to the precision...

The charges are trumped up charges and the only reason they were applied was for political purposes. Even if they are true, like Ghosn pointed out, they are being vindictive making him wait 5 years for a trial, not seeing his wife, solitary confinement, no lawyer access, no access to evidence...

I can't help but feel sorry for him now though. In a culture of ICE auto, his opinions would be influenced by those around him. Elon on the other hand was obsessed with EVs from a young age, and had an education in physics (and started a phd in batteries?). Ghosn actually studied engineering but...

I just watched Ghosn's public address. Here are some points I took away (and some rambling points related to Japanese culture): 1) I previously read he was set-up because of him championing the merger with Renault and Nissan... even more certain that this is the case now. He said it was because...

I just had a read of this: Monopoly - Wikipedia You both seem to be oversimplifying and cherrypicking to me.

VW is investing in EVs which is good. They understand roughly speaking all the ideas of cheaper batteries, economies of scale, autonomous driving, software centric, mobility service etc. But they are still going to struggle to make the transition because software is hard and they don't know...

Have you got some source for the 'proper forrest'? On that thought, I was talking to some very knowledgable scientists on the topic of reforestation and CO2 capture. They spent their entire careers studying and implementing these types of programs. They said that the best way to capture CO2 is...

What are the Q1 headwinds?

I read about it one weekend and started setting up some mining but got bored and probably played some computer games instead... whoops.

Do you think the people buying pizzas with Bitcoin in 2011 regret it? Anyway, I think rather than looking at your investments through the lens of how they psychologically make you feel, you should look at them mathematically and try to calculate the expected value, then marry it to your risk...

430 is old news. I'm waiting for 440 now.

Why do you think it is as low as 5%. Elon is saying they are pretty much feature complete and end of 2020 will be unsupervised driving. This sounds more like 99% to me. It is a mistake to buy into the 'don't trust Elon' FUD, or that he is bad at predicting timelines. The historical...

Unsupervised and robotaxi are synonymous afaic, so if Elon said end of 2020 for unsupervised then that is technically good enough for a robotaxi and just needs regulatory approval (I didn't remember his saying that though). I think they can have robotaxis which are geofenced and gradually roll...

FSD is so exciting. I think it is bigger than any other application of AI to date. Clearly they are making rapid progress with features just as Elon promised. Fixing the trailing 9s is just a matter of data and time. Even if you don't have TSLA stock it is exciting. Our cities are going to be...

I came round to agreeing when I profit took 5% of my TSLA at 330. Obviously the time for swing trading the 250-350 range is long gone... TSLA is in a highly volatile period now. I suspect though, that TMC does have some impact on share price. There is no other place as good for information if...

Here are my thoughts on where Tesla stands currently. 1) Q4 deliveries are only 2 weeks away, and earnings call is 6 weeks away. I'm thinking we will get a modest profit and record deliveries. SP will show strength in anticipation of a good quarter... we will go beyond 420 in the lead up to...

Ok - time to stop watching for 420.69 and go do something today...

Haha - 420 coming in fast...

Last year it was Jan 2, so I expect the same or Jan 3.

That link should have a disclaimer not to click it unless you want to lose 3 minutes of your life and 20IQ points.

This video is pretty aligned with how I'm thinking about 2020... seems like its going to be a killer year for Tesla.