Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

From the MotorTrend interview:

“I think there's a fundamental disconnect to the business publications and for a lot of people from New York that are in the financial sector. They're just out of touch, and they don't know it. Whereas if you're in Silicon Valley or you're in L.A. and you see Teslas everywhere and people are driving them and then you have lots of friends if you're in this neck of the woods who are driving a Tesla and love it, then it's obvious what the situation is. But if you're in Manhattan and just getting driven around in a limousine, you're maybe not in touch.”

Mic drop.

 

[LN1_Casey]

OT Advertising
Look who got top billing from the local power company (e-mail I just received)
View attachment 430609

Reminds me of finding this advertisement in France. Although, for some reason the advertisement had taken away the Tesla symbol on the side camera and the tires.

 

[StealthP3D]

Adding: you’ve ignored the price increases for FSD. Of course FSD is an option people don’t have to buy. But then you’re ignoring the whole point of it as far as Tesla is concerned - you buy a car that makes money for you when you aren’t using it - which for most people is a lot of hours each day. So, people who are more price sensitive/conscience should actually be seriously considering putting their car to work for them. Now all of a sudden there’s a conflict about Tesla pricing.

Edit: Please disregard, I was unknowingly looking at prices on the Canadian Tesla site!

No discussion on pricing and margins is complete without noting that Tesla quietly raised the prices on a whole bunch of items. These are much more substantial increases than a simple adjustment for inflation and should contribute significantly to the bottom line in future quarters:

HPWC: $500 to $635
Gen I Corded Mobile Connector: $365 (I think) to $691 (going from memory, welcome to corrections)
Gen II UMC adapters: $35 to $44
Mod 3 Roof Rack: $500 to $600
License Plate Frame: $35 to $50

I've always considered Tesla accessories to be under-priced from what I would expect from a premium brand but it now looks like the prices are what I would have expected all along (in other words, a very healthy profit margin).

All my "before" prices are from memory so someone please correct me if I didn't get them exactly right. Also, this list is far from exhaustive, just the items that stood out to me.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No discussion on pricing and margins is complete without noting that Tesla quietly raised the prices on a whole bunch of items. These are much more substantial increases than a simple adjustment for inflation and should contribute significantly to the bottom line in future quarters:

HPWC: $500 to $635
Gen I Corded Mobile Connector: $365 (I think) to $691 (going from memory, welcome to corrections)
Gen II UMC adapters: $35 to $44
Mod 3 Roof Rack: $500 to $600
License Plate Frame: $35 to $50

I've always considered Tesla accessories to be under-priced from what I would expect from a premium brand but it now looks like the prices are what I would have expected all along (in other words, a very healthy profit margin).

All my "before" prices are from memory so someone please correct me if I didn't get them exactly right. Also, this list is far from exhaustive, just the items that stood out to me.

Confused, I checked the wall connector price just now and it’s still $500... were you looking at Canada prices or something?

 

[StealthP3D]

today's rise could be related to european car sales crash of 7,8% in June 2019 that was reported yesterday. My guess is that a lot of European Investors are switching (paritally) to Tesla stock as a hedge on ICE stocks.

There was obviously a big pull forward of demand (from Sept. '18 to Aug '18). What was the cause? I don't follow Euro sales much.

 

[StealthP3D]

Confused, I checked the wall connector price just now and it’s still $500... were you looking at Canada prices or something?

Haha, yes, thank you! I didn't realize my Google search took me to the Canadian site!

It looks like Tesla still sells accessories at value prices.

Apologies for any confusion.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Haha, yes, thank you. I didn't realize my Google search took me to the Canadian site!

No worries. You scared me there for a second. When I get my Y, I’ll have to get one.

 

[Zero CO2]

From the MotorTrend interview:

“I think there's a fundamental disconnect to the business publications and for a lot of people from New York that are in the financial sector. They're just out of touch, and they don't know it. Whereas if you're in Silicon Valley or you're in L.A. and you see Teslas everywhere and people are driving them and then you have lots of friends if you're in this neck of the woods who are driving a Tesla and love it, then it's obvious what the situation is. But if you're in Manhattan and just getting driven around in a limousine, you're maybe not in touch.”

Mic drop.

We love Tesla in NYC too ... not sure about this line of thought ... I guess it is a nice way of saying the corrupt financial analysts in NYC who are profiting by shorting Telsa are also blind ... quite a few Telsa's in NYC metro ... more every day on my commute ... not sure what Elon is talking about here ...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Gen I Corded Mobile Connector: $365 (I think) to $691 (going from memory, welcome to corrections)

...
All my "before" prices are from memory so someone please correct me if I didn't get them exactly right. Also, this list is far from exhaustive, just the items that stood out to me.

Definitely wasn't $365. I see $520 and it hasn't changed from June 11th 2019, according to the Wayback machine.

Model 3

I hadn't noticed the WC with 14-50 plug before. That's $500 and out-of-stock, for obvious reasons.

 

[kbM3]

Maybe they limit it to 2 per household or something. He can't price it 100k just because it can make you 30k a year. That's not a car, that's a business. I know I can make millions a year from time share, I just need to fork out 15 million to build it....see no difference than a business and it's out of reach for common folks.

Yes it’s a business. A business that in theory can net $30k/year profit with minimal effort. Such a business is valuable. So payback at $100k initial cost is roughly 4 years.

 

[Tim S]

We love Tesla in NYC too ... not sure about this line of thought ... I guess it is a nice way of saying the corrupt financial analysts in NYC who are profiting by shorting Telsa are also blind ... quite a few Telsa's in NYC metro ... more every day on my commute ... not sure what Elon is talking about here ...

"Quite a few" in the NYC metro area is no comparison to the huge number of Teslas you would see in California. Also, he was talking about Manhattan which is mostly taxis, limos, trucks and buses, not the entire NYC area. The percent of Teslas in Manhattan is still tiny.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Things I'm 100% convinced of:

• battery/charging technology will continue to improve to the point where getting a couple hundred miles in under 10 minutes will be routine
• EVs will be cheaper than comparable ICE
• ICE cars will be legislated out of existence just like incandescent bulbs

I don't know how long this will be, but it seems inevitable. I don't see how Tesla isn't the big winner in this future. I may be wrong, but I'm betting I'm not.

 

[willow_hiller]

Yes it’s a business. A business that in theory can net $30k/year profit with minimal effort. Such a business is valuable. So payback at $100k initial cost is roughly 4 years.

It's also quite valuable even if you don't include your Tesla in the robotaxi fleet.

I'm presently spending about $3,000 on metro fares per year for a 10 mile journey to work. Paying for a parking space in the city would be about the same. But completing that trip four times per day (drop me and the wife off at work, return home to park, pick us up in the evening and take us home) would cost me about $300 in electricity per year. Saving $2,700 per year in commuting costs for a safer, cleaner, easier commute would be amazing, if Tesla can get regulatory approval within the lifetime of our 3.

 

[HG Wells]

Things I'm 100% convinced of:

• battery/charging technology will continue to improve to the point where getting a couple hundred miles in under 10 minutes will be routine
• EVs will be cheaper than comparable ICE
• ICE cars will be legislated out of existence just like incandescent bulbs

I don't know how long this will be, but it seems inevitable. I don't see how Tesla isn't the big winner in this future. I may be wrong, but I'm betting I'm not.

DAM !
I just bought a model 3 last month.
I knew I should have waited a year or two.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 8 minutes ago: Tesla is getting China right, Morgan Stanley says

 

[Fact Checking]

There was obviously a big pull forward of demand (from Sept. '18 to Aug '18). What was the cause? I don't follow Euro sales much.

As usual, it's related to "gassing European citizens for profit" fraud: the new European WLTP emissions standard became effective on September 1 2018, which meant a lot of "old" models became outright illegal after they were tested scientifically to determine true (best-case ...) pollution.

But it was not illegal to make more of them in a rush and sell them off in the first half of 2018, pulling forward several months worth of production in advance, hence heavy incentives in the summer and a strong month of August.

As a result there's several months production worth of illegally polluting vehicles more on European roads. Yay, apparently murder pays handsomely, as long as you don't get prosecuted.

The current -7% YoY drop is partly caused by the higher sales baseline in July 2018:

July 2018 continues trend of new car sales records broken | SEAT​

Surprise, surprise, not a single word about the WLTP event in September in SEAT's July press release...

But, there's a new problem: May, June and July sales are well after the September'2018 WLTP pull forward event, and they are significantly below 2017 sales.

For example sedan-only Alfa Romeo sales are down almost catastrophically in Europe this year, even compared to 2017:

Alfa Romeo European sales figures​

I.e. "peak auto" has probably begun in Europe as well:

• Totally unrelated to the increased obsolescence risk of gascars by EVs.
• Completely unrelated the widespread rollout of the sedan Model 3,
• which factors are absolutely not triggering new car purchase delaying decisions by European customers.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Thanks for the info.

60k in 2021 is only an output of 1.1k/week to be reached in the next 2.5 years, while Tesla guided Shanghai to have an initial capacity of 3k/week. (!)

Does Adam Jonas offer any rational explanation for why it would take Tesla three times longer to ramp up Shanghai to only 35% of the target capacity, than it took to ramp up in Fremont?

I.e. Adam "Is the FSD chip military tech that could turn into a Terminator?" Jonas is predicting an at least ~5x slower ramp up than the much delayed Fremont ramp-up...

Not the kind of thing you'd expect to happen when a car manufacturer duplicates a new factory making the same car model, right?

The only rational explanation for the brutal discrepancy in Adam Jonas's 2020 and 2021 Shanghai production estimates is that they are:

• invented out of thin air,
• fictitious,
• totally made up,

... just to back up his previous ridiculously low TSLA price targets and valuation.

In other words, unless Adam "my TSLA bear scenario is $10" Jonas has a damn good explanation for this, these are material, fraudulent, actionable lies designed to mislead and defraud Morgan Stanley clients and Tesla investors.

If only there was a government agency tasked with protecting investors from such fraud, in addition to the one that is censoring tweets and is helping Tesla anti-investors stay profitable that is.

You are conflating GF3 production with "sales in China". They are not the same number. Maybe not even close.

Edit: I am aware of Tesla's comments on the subject. We'll see how it turns out.

 

[wipster]

Haha, yes, thank you! I didn't realize my Google search took me to the Canadian site!

It looks like Tesla still sells accessories at value prices.

Apologies for any confusion.

You think that's bad? My Amazon app is now taking me to Amazon France! Don't get me wrong, I love the French language, but getting 2 day delivery from there is a bitch!

 

[StealthP3D]

We love Tesla in NYC too ... not sure about this line of thought ... I guess it is a nice way of saying the corrupt financial analysts in NYC who are profiting by shorting Telsa are also blind ... quite a few Telsa's in NYC metro ... more every day on my commute ... not sure what Elon is talking about here ...

Elon Musk was just putting the most polite spin he could think of on the Wall Street manipulation and corruption by saying the analysts were "out of touch". Imagine the odd headlines that would result if he told the honest truth of the matter!

Musk Delusional: Complains Wall Street Out to Get Him!

 

[Tim S]

You are conflating GF3 production with "sales in China". They are not the same number. Maybe not even close.

Edit: I am aware of Tesla's comments on the subject. We'll see how it turns out.

Either of those numbers will be about 10 times Jonas's numbers for 2021 and 2022.