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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You are conflating GF3 production with "sales in China".

Since Tesla plans 3k/week and 156,000/year production in China, and is currently selling maybe 40,000/year units, can we agree that GF3, once at full capacity, will represent about ~80% of China sales? (While GF3 might export to nearby Asian markets, I presume this will be a small factor compared to the Chinese market.)

Also, if from the 60k 2021 figure the U.S. made units have to be subtracted, this makes the China numbers by Adam Jonas even more suspect...
 
New GF3 vid:


Observations:
  • Insulating and sealing the roof is finally almost done
  • There's a veritable train of those massive HVAC units en route in, to form two veritable trains atop the building.
  • Work continues greening up the site even while they keep building. It's going to look really nice :)
  • They're building some small elongated building next to the cooling building.
  • Employee housing complex looks pretty nice, by China standards. I still hope they put in some playgrounds and other "family-friendly" stuff nearby
  • Is that a giant Danish flag on the wall 3 minutes in? *boggle*
  • The missing walls on the tall section are starting to close up. I'm guessing that they had waited on those to move in some equipment or work on upper floors which wouldn't have been possible (or at least more difficult) when the walls were finished.
 
I missed this:
During a Q&A at the end of the presentation, Musk revealed results that the rest of the team hadn’t realized he would: “A monkey has been able to control a computer with its brain.”

That's huge!​

Indeed. There's now hope that Bob Lutz will one day be able to control a computer with his brain!
 
We love Tesla in NYC too ... not sure about this line of thought ... I guess it is a nice way of saying the corrupt financial analysts in NYC who are profiting by shorting Telsa are also blind ... quite a few Telsa's in NYC metro ... more every day on my commute ... not sure what Elon is talking about here ...

in the northern va / DC area, Teslas are everywhere. i typically see at least 4-5 on a 20 minute drive.

i think Elon is just taking a swing at the financial sector here, which has been brutally unfair to Tesla, not all New Yorkers. Giving them the "out of touch" excuse is less combative than saying they're disingenuous vampires.
 
Yes it’s a business. A business that in theory can net $30k/year profit with minimal effort. Such a business is valuable. So payback at $100k initial cost is roughly 4 years.

Yes but not everyone wants to use it as such. It's like forcing a high mortgage because you can rent out your spare bedroom to make it up.
 
We love Tesla in NYC too ... not sure about this line of thought ... I guess it is a nice way of saying the corrupt financial analysts in NYC who are profiting by shorting Telsa are also blind ... quite a few Telsa's in NYC metro ... more every day on my commute ... not sure what Elon is talking about here ...

Here in the Bay Area, we can see several Model 3 per block. At any big intersections in my neighborhood, there could be several Model S, X and 3 waiting at the light.
 
Let's do some math:
  • "The car can, using a 800kW charger, fully replenish itself in nine minutes."
  • "Range-wise, the car can run up to 270 miles, based on the New European Driving Cycle Combined Cycle."
  • "The Evija is shooting for a target weight of 1680kg"
Now, NEDC range is, as we all know, a joke. That might be ~200 miles EPA. I'd say that the car would average ~275Wh/mi EPA combined if done well, aka 55 kWh available... let's just say 60kWh total (may need to be more). Now, to get those sorts of crazy charge times (which yes, are possible), you're talking titanates or the like. Say, Samsung's SCiB line. The highest energy density variant is listed at ~100Wh/kg, and can do 0-80% in 6 minutes, 0-100% in 10 minutes. That'd be 600kg of cells - plus overhead for the rest of the battery pack. That leaves under 1000kg for the rest of the car.

** It's possible to make charging even faster than that - SCiB cells come in variants that can charge as fast as 0-80% in 1 minute. But life is tradeoffs. You have to throw away even more energy density, and you'll never realistically be able to feed in current / draw out heat that fast regardless.

BTW, they'll have to charge a fortune for this car, if only because high-power-density cells like SCiBs cost a bloody fortune. Last I checked they were a couple thousand dollars per kWh.

This is BTW part of the reason why such cells and "0-100% charge speeds" are pointless except for toys. It makes far more sense to just add more energy-dense cells. If you can charge 40% in 9 minutes, and your cells are 270Wh/kg, then that's equivalent to charging to 100% in 9 minutes on a 108Wh/kg cell. Except that on the 270Wh/kg cell you can just keep on charging after that, and it costs a tiny fraction as much. Don't get me wrong, titanate cells have a number of other nice advantages, like crazy cycle lives (tens of thousands) and wide operating temperature ranges. But for EVs, they're just not a good choice. The short-term future of EV batteries is NCA or NMC, followed by some type of N[A,M] in the mid-term. Long-term, who bloody knows at this point ;)

ED: Adding charging graphs for SCiB products. Top, their fastest charging / least energy dense variety, and bottom, their slowest charging / most energy dense variety.

cell-graph03.png

cell-graph06.png


ED2: Let's put it another way. A 2017 ~75kWh Model 3 LR can charge the Lotus's range in ~18 minutes on V3. In doing so, the V3 Supercharger is tapered down to under 100kW by the end. Is there any doubt that a Roadster, which shouldn't taper at all from 250kW over that range (and could theoretically take even higher charge currents), and whose consumption should be marginally but not terribly worse than the Model 3, should be able to match or beat the Lotus? Yet its range will be three times as long.
I hesitate to attempt any practical calculations for a two million dollar car....

That said, Toshiba is moving their SCiB cells from LTO to NTO. I haven't seen specs, but they claim 2x energy density. They only quote volumetric, though, which tells me specific energy won't improve anywhere near 2x. I expect something like 150 Wh/kg. If much lower internal resistance means a lighter weight cooling scheme, perhaps 120 Wh/kg at the pack level vs. 165 for Tesla will be possible.

I read elsewhere this is a 70 kWh pack. Your 275 Wh/mile sounds optimistic. Supercar designers tune aerodynamics for downforce, not low drag (e.g. Bugatti Veyron's 0.35 Cd as made famous by Musk during the Semi reveal). This car would be designed to empty its battery in 7-8 minutes doing a few hot laps (or one Nürburgring lap) at 500 kW+ average power. Then, after a 10 minute fast charge, it's ready to roll again. How much EPA range the Model 3 can add in 18 minutes isn't particularly relevant to this use case.
 
in the northern va / DC area, Teslas are everywhere. i typically see at least 4-5 on a 20 minute drive.

i think Elon is just taking a swing at the financial sector here, which has been brutally unfair to Tesla, not all New Yorkers. Giving them the "out of touch" excuse is less combative than saying they're disingenuous vampires.

Decided to do a count on a short 20 minute drive this morning - ended up seeing 13. Next time I think to do the same I'll see if I can safely count both Teslas and BMWs while driving; will be interesting to see how that shakes out (expecting to see more of the latter, of course).
 
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in the northern va / DC area, Teslas are everywhere. i typically see at least 4-5 on a 20 minute drive.

i think Elon is just taking a swing at the financial sector here, which has been brutally unfair to Tesla, not all New Yorkers. Giving them the "out of touch" excuse is less combative than saying they're disingenuous vampires.

Here in Silicon Valley, I see somewhere on the order of 50 on my commute...
 
I agree with you, but it's also a vague statement by Elon. He could have easy just said record production and deliveries. But then again, Elon is prone to hyperbole. But then again again, we were expecting a small record of maybe 91,000 deliveries (when implied from the emails), not 95,200... Similarly, when Elon guided for a profit in Q3 2018, it was a sizeable profit rather than a small one everyone was anticipating.
I like it under promise and over deliver. That is what I and I believe Wall Street likes.
 
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Yes but not everyone wants to use it as such. It's like forcing a high mortgage because you can rent out your spare bedroom to make it up.

It has nothing to do with "forcing a high mortgage".

It's analogous to buying a bigger house because you can rent out the spare space and lower the part of the mortgage payment that you have to cover out of your paycheck. Some people do this for financial gain. Tesla is not forcing anyone to buy FSD, it's an OPTION.
 
Yes but not everyone wants to use it as such. It's like forcing a high mortgage because you can rent out your spare bedroom to make it up.

It doesn't matter if everyone wants to or not. Just that enough people do. You gave the example of a high mortgage; lets follow that logic. We've seen that in areas with high amounts of tourism, AirBnB has flourished. As that happened, both monthly rent amounts *and* housing prices have shot through the roof. Of course, not everyone wants to rent out part of their house. The problem is that they're competing on buying those houses with tons of people who do. This has happened to the point that many metropolitan areas have started putting in strict limits on AirBnB's in order to lower the demand on housing for that purpose and, therefore, open up housing affordable to residents.
 
in the northern va / DC area, Teslas are everywhere. i typically see at least 4-5 on a 20 minute drive.

Here in Silicon Valley, I see somewhere on the order of 50 on my commute...

This is really concerning regarding demand, nobody is going to buy a Tesla because everyone is going to have one!
 
For the same reason I don't expect people to say PG&E serves California...

Besides, if I had said it was Detroit Thomas Edison, I'd get booed off the Tesla forum. :D
DTE Electric Company - Wikipedia

Everyone knows PG & E imo, especially since California is Teslas largest customer base. DTE serves 2.2 million, with a VERY LOW Tesla ownership rate. Not sure I EVER saw a Tesla at the Ann Arbor super charger from 2015-2018
 
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