This may be of interest to anyone who is on the fence about investing in Tesla, and also anyone who averaged TSLA at higher prices (e.g. > $300). This is not for anyone who wants assurances or proof. Treat this as one person's ramblings.
I thought autonomous FSD robotaxis would not be ready for many, many years, with only a 30% probability. I've given technical reasons for this in prior posts, and these reasons are still valid. However, I found some missing pieces to the puzzle, so I've changed my mind.
Excluding regulatory issues, I'm now confident that safe autonomy and/or a robotaxi service will be ready in the next year or two, pretty much along Elon Musk's time frame or perhaps a year longer. I have about 80% conviction in this. More importantly, I'm pretty sure of the reasons for EM being so confident about this, to the point of being smug.
However, the market will not believe autonomy or robotaxies are possible until it's obvious. This could happen end of this year or the next, but it will happen when Tesla decides to reveal their hand. Until then, there may be better entry points. With all the shorts, there might even be better entry points for a short while after it's obvious, just like the delayed run up after deliveries last quarter.
I've doubled my position in TSLA today and intend to invest substantially more over the next month. The timing is bad because Tesla is up due to other positive news, but +/- 30% in the short term won't matter if I'm right.
The bad news: I can't share details. So why post this at all?
1. Correcting my past posts
2. Giving back what I can
3. "I told you so" rights
Disclaimer: This is absolutely not investment advice.