Search results

Reading this after the call. How prescient!

Lighten up Francis:-)

It seems like Elon is following the Great War General “When your army has crossed the border, you should burn your boats and bridges, in order to make it clear to everybody that you have no hankering after home.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Great teardown CT video . Well done, and clearly shows many advantages of Tesla’s technology versus the competition.

Think of it this way. Imagine you can afford a $40k car. Would you rather a Model 3, or a somewhat smaller car with worse performance, but that can drive you everywhere, allowing you to sleep, eat, watch movies and play games? And the real money is not in FSD. Nit is in Robotaxis.

The B pillar is where the camera resides. If you measure the distance from the front of a Tesla to the camera, you will see it is the SAME distance from the front of the vehicle to the driver’s eye on many other vehicles. And they manage just fine. Or do you have data showing otherwise to...

Incorrect. Many vehicles being sold have the driver sitting the same distance from the front of the car as the B Pillar. Unless, you have math, you have no claim.

I don’t have a video, but I had to disengage when it failed to react to a car in the other turn lane merging into mine. I would guess it would’ve eventually detected it, but I don’t think it’s very good that my reactions are quicker than its were.

Can’t an order of magnitude compute be used to shorten the iteration cycle on training instead? I.e. handling 10X more training data is not the only use for it.

Wall St. has hammered Tesla on demand concerns. Solving 4680 production doesn’t help demand. So I don’t believe Wall St. would value increased production unless it comes with good COGS reductions. And they would want to see that reflected in margins, before re-rating. Or they would need to...

Why would you need collision insurance? Once Tesla says no supervision required, they’re on the hook. Not you.

Rivians DONT have desirable designs. Vehicle have to be designed to be cost effectively manufactured. That’s why Tesla has the design engineers, and the manufacturing engineers all in the room at the same time.

You learned the wrong lesson then. Even IF Tesla goes bankrupt, you would be $20 / share ahead had you bought at $180 vs $200.

Those lawyers took it upon themselves to sue on behalf of all shareholders, that we paid Elon too much (I guess because the judge thought we didn’t know Elon and the board liked each other). For their fee, they are asking for 11% of the shares we would have otherwise had to give Elon, had the...

Well balanced article about the drop in EV demand. Basically there was too much euphoria when Teslas were selling like crazy during the supply chain disruption causing other vehicles to be scarce, followed by the difficulty facing EV’s as they transition from early adopters to mainstream (as...

My guess would be it is not allowed to transfer shares from an individual account directly to a Roth, because those shares may have unrealized gains. And the government wants their tax :)

It was a different world back then, when Tesla was giving that guidance. Tesla was most definitely production constrained, even at high gross margins. So volume only depended on their execution. Now it looks like Tesla has become demand constrained on their existing models, even at lower...

My ONLY negative takeaway from yesterday was the removal of the 50% average annual growth guidance. Edit: just saw this brilliant tweet, giving a great argument for removing detailed guidance, among other things. It’s from unplugged performance...

Dave Lee’s new video gives a great description of the innate advantages of FSD v12 by framing it as general driving intelligence versus the previous narrow driving intelligence and the relevance for edge cases.

You can’t estimate EPA consumption by just dividing the distance driven by the energy drawn from the battery. You have to divide distance driven by energy drawn from the wall. I.e., the official EPA consumption number includes charging losses. I believe they’re usually about 10%.

Came here to post this as well. It looks like BYD has become Tesla’s most serious competition. Also, I have seen previous comparisons where the BYD Seal actually beat out the model three. It is very nice to see this WhatCar comparison restore the natural order :)

Agree. 250k won’t hurt that badly and some of those will come from people who do not currently buy trucks, so that market expansion means even less sales stolen from legacy. What might hurt beyond just the units, is if the stolen sales are from the higher priced more profitable vehicles...

Starship launch scheduled in 43 minutes at 7 AM central time. Does anyone know the best way to watch? my preference would be a SpaceX feed on YouTube, rather than Twitter, so I can watch on my TV.

Nope. The goal is not lower cost cars. The goal is displacing fossil fuel burning. And selling 2M $50k cars satisfies that goal just as much as selling 2M $10k cars. ‘Tis math. i.e. Affordable cars are a means to an end. They are NOT the end. And

At the Pepsi Semi delivery event, Lars (after getting Elon’s permission) revealed that the Cyber Truck will charge at one megawatt.

Elon said CT would take 18 months to ramp to a 250k annual rate. Not to the current 125k capacity.

I believe every single Tesla model became gross profitable by the 2nd quarter of production. In very stark contrast to other’s EV’s. So Elon’s pessimistic view on the difficulty of getting CT to significant positive cash flow generation, would likely be using this kind of exceptional...

It is encouraging that other EV’s having trouble indicates demand concerns don’t apply specifically to Tesla. But if interest rates are the primary demand killer, they should apply just as much to luxury ICE vehicles. Are we seeing this?

We know with 4680’s they try and make each new line a new version or generation. So it seems very possible that supplier is for the 2nd production line they will be adding to get to 250k annually.

Someone took a stab at deriving BYD’s EV profits. If they’re right, they’re much, much lower than Tesla’s. And then obviously BYD would be far less competitive than it might appear. https://x.com/alojoh/status/1712014850946166978?s=61&t=puvOJqHO8CtyeSYH_P4EgQ

So? We know the weight of the tractor from Leno, so his 10k lbs assertion is wrong. Edit: my mistake. Thought the CT video was a Tesla tractor. Made no sense. sorry.

Elon, speaking on starship live right about now. https://www.youtube.com/live/kg3Z0wj9xDI?si=RKGULV0AiOTSCNmP

Semi tractor is NOT 10k lbs. From Jay Leno: Dan Priestly stated the GVW of the Semi hauling a Semi was 60k-70k lbs. From some Internet commenter: Trailer used in Leno segment was 18k lbs. From math: Semi tractor weight is between 21k and 26k lbs.

I don’t get your logic. If Tesla sells 1.8M vehicles this year, that comes directly from competition whether Tesla does it by advertising or price cuts or price raises. The bottom line is how many Teslas are being delivered. Not the price they’re selling for. Tesla did not start a price war...

$0.5B revenue to be generous would provide $150M free cash flow. Tesla’s value as a company is the discounted sum of all future cash flows. So a one time hit of $150M (no discount because it is the present) should affect Tesla’s value by $150M / 3.5B shares = ~ $0.05 / share hit to the value...

Your guess is somewhat off. 0.66X speed would be normal. The video clearly labels as 1.5X at the beginning in the top right hand corner.

IIRC Tesla only guided for lower production. They have increased inventory for a while now, so if deliveries were lower, that would exacerbate Wall St. demand fears.

I don’t believe there is a single ideal Robotaxi form factor. Certainly if you could only have one, then the Model Y would be a great fit. But I think there’d be great value in a small single seater commuter special. You could have one very nice seat, tray, screen… I also like the idea of a...

I thing EVERYONE knew the end goal was video in and controls out. In fact, Tesla stated that at the first Autonomy Day in 2019. where Hotz was wrong, was his belief the best path was to go straight there (just like Waymo & Cruise going straight to L4). Tesla knew you needed the incremental...

The big mistake was NOT running the red light. The far larger problem was attempting to drive into the cars which were turning. The car should never do that whether the light was red, yellow or green.

Not only that. But selling the original planned volume of Model 3 at even higher prices than they revealed at the unveiling, is actually a much larger success:) So they’re spinning a complete positive (from the company’s perspective) as a negative.

Although I agree technically it could just mean it’s futuristic, LIKE Cybertruck strongly implies cyber styling

At the shareholder meeting, Elon speculated that the next two models could combine for 5 million unit sales per year. At the time I thought he was referring to the compact car, plus the van. I think this leak makes it more likely he was referring to the compact car plus the Robo taxi. Which...

I’m wondering if Tesla is upset about this last leak. Walter said they stated he was free to reveal all, but maybe they expected some discretion on things like this?

It does worry me that Elon actually intended to have no backup plan for Robotaxi. 1. Thank heavens for the brilliant exec team. 2. The desperation caused by Elon’s stubbornness MIGHT have resulted in the breakthrough of the next gen factory and unboxed process. So maybe it was good that he...

Breaking News! Isaacson leaks that the next gen Teslas will have Cyber styling (both $25k car and Robotaxi)! https://apple.news/AUtC4C2ipQwCYC7mbycuXlg

Gali got his valuation by assuming the market cap will be $3T-$4T in 2030 and backing that out at a 20% discount rate for 7 years and then noted that matches today’s valuation roughly. If interest rates drop and you use a 17% discount value, the present share price would be much higher.

Update on my Model S purchase (and bad bug on Tesla’s part?) Because I was lucky enough to get my trade-in valuation the day before the price drop and am finalizing my sale after, i’m worrying about making sure this transaction goes through. So I immediately on September 1st went through the...

CarMax offered $62k.

Out of all the Highland changes, I’m happiest about the NVH and suspension improvements. Whenever I’ve seen reviews from sites I respect, these were the areas that always drew the strongest criticisms.