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Tesla needs to refresh the Model S, asap.
- Thread starter AMPd
- Start date
I know that
But how does it relate to what I was saying about the Model S being Teslas oldest vehicle.
The other person was saying tesla doesn’t do refreshes, well yeah because they didn’t have any cars reach the life span the model s has.
I do agree it's getting long in the tooth. I typically go through cars like mad, and while I do love my car, the only reason I'd consider upgrading is because they have something better. I'm not going to buy the same car I have all over again and don't lust after the new version (since they're all identical). Now my wife is happy because I'm not asking for a new car every other day (which is an odd feeling for her I'm sure).
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
lol, I hear ya. I've had self-diagnosed car-ADD for decades now, always want something new. Not so with the S, which is a good thing because the bargain with the wife was that I'd promise to keep this one for at least 5 years. 2 years in, that's not looking like it's going to be a problem. There's nothing else I want and Tesla's "improvements" since 2017 certainly don't make me feel the need to buy the same car all over again.
Hit the nail on the head there. Tesla is going to have to do something to get current model S owners turning in their lease to want to upgrade. Right now, it’s essentially the same car. All those people driving 2-3 year old Model S cars...virtually no reason to upgrade to a new S at this time.
whitex
Well-Known Member
whitex
Well-Known Member
Uhm... How about designing a budget cell? It's like you saying that the Porsche Boxter must be better than 911 because Porsche wouldn't have wasted their time designing it otherwise. Designing a cheaper, budget version of products is what companies do, and nobody (except maybe people like yourself) consider it a waste of time. Model 3 is a budget Tesla.
scole04
Member
I agree. Even a budget cell would be reason enough to pass it on to your most loyal customers. I have my original model S I bought in Jan. '13 and I still haven't seen a good even reason to get a new one. Guess my money will have to just keep making money.
whitex
Well-Known Member
I think I'm missing something. The expectation is that flagship product should get the most recent technology, even if it's lower performing? Bugatti Chiron customers want the latest VW engine, even if it came from a VW Golf? 2170 cells has slightly lower energy density than 18650, but because they are cheaper to produce they should be in the latest S/X? You want a smaller Model 3 motor which has acceleration lag in all Model S and X just because it's newer design?
Also, 2170 may also not last as long - we have no longevity in the wild data yet, but we do know that S/X batteries have better warranty than Model 3.
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I think I'm missing something. The expectation is that flagship product should get the most recent technology, even if it's lower performing? Bugatti Chiron customers want the latest VW engine, even if it came from a VW Golf? 2170 cells has slightly lower energy density than 18650, but because they are cheaper to produce they should be in the latest S/X? You want a smaller Model 3 motor which has acceleration lag in all Model S and X just because it's newer design?
Also, 2170 may also not last as long - we have no longevity in the wild data yet, but we do know that S/X batteries have better warranty than Model 3.
I think the talk of 2170s as the ”budget cell” will last about as long as it still takes for Tesla to release them in higher-end models. Maybe a year or so.
2170s as the ”budget cell” is a common narrative but one that I do not expect to age well. Everything in my view points to 2170s having been designed in with superior features and progress in mind as well as cost efficiency — no matter how much Tesla has tried to downplay the fact that Model 3 indeed is the better car within its form-factor limits than either Model S/X are at this time.
2170s will very likely appear in high-end Teslas like Roadster and Model S/X as soon as possible. But as it may still take some time due to the production hell this means it is, in the meanwhile, in Tesla’s short-term interest to keep on peddling 18650s in Model S/X.
Well, since we have seen that the energy density, volumetric and gravimetric, isn't better with the 2170. We can look at other differences. The 18650s should be easier to cool, for example. But I also guess that the 2170s are cheaper to produce per kWh. And the fewer cells are in a pack, the cheaper the pack production is.
I know, that the 2170s are newer, but when Audi brings out a new 4 cylinder engine, nobody expects them to put it into the Audi R8, despite it being newer.
IMO the cell chemistry is probably even the same. The only real difference is the form factor. And since it has a worse surface area to volume ratio, I'd say it's worse for performance applications. But since you can go with fewer cells, the whole wiring and cooling system is easier to manufacture.
Now will the S and X for ever stay with the 18650s? I don't know. But I do think that just changing the form factor won't help. Sure you can always put more cells into a car. But I think the next step in kWh will come due to chemistry improvements, like from the 85 to the 90 battery.
Of course not but we do expect relevant features Audi invents for their lower-end cars or first implements in lower-end cars (especially those not low-end enough to run on Volkswagen platforms) to trickle back to higher-end as well. That is why sometimes next year’s RS model runs on a new souped-up turbo V6 from the basic range rather than on the old RS V8 from yesteryear.
My opinion on 2170s is simple. Tesla is at its heart a battery company (though of course in a symbiotic relationship with its partners in the sphere). 2170s represent their third wave of battery innovation and the future of the company. We know there are several chemistries of the cell already and we know how Tesla has talked up the size of the cell.
It just makes sense 2170s will appear in new models, high-end included, as soon as they can make enough.
Is someone really expecting the new Roadster or the Semi to run on 18650s?
The only reason I can see for Tesla to not move Model S/X to 2170s is similar to why they won’t appear for the first Roadster — they’d sunset the models. But so far I see no sign of that either so I expect 2170s in Model S/X sooner rather than later. Maybe a year?
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I get your point but that’s not really true either...
Tesla’s first car, the Roadster, had several refreshes named 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 (perhaps one could also include 3.0 though that was a retrofit).
Model S already has had at least two significant refreshes: the D+A announcement and the facelift both of which included significant number of changes very similar to general automotive mid-cycle refreshes.
Beyond that I agree Tesla’s fleet is simply not old or mature enough to really assess how their product cycle works. But no matter what they say, they have done refreshes.
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whitex
Well-Known Member
Tesla might very well at some point move all their cars to 2170 for cost optimization purposes, even if it doesn't give any benefits to S/X. You keep saying how 2170 are "better", for what and for whom? We know it's not energy density, and we know worse for cooling, so what exactly are you saying is so much better? Or are you simply of a belief than anything newer has to be better?
Model 3 is a newer, better design than the S/X. If I were in the market for a Model S, I'd probably wait. There is no point buying a 9 year old design today. Model S was announced in 2008 and a prototype shown in 2009. This is ancient for a technology company like Tesla.
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Well of course not to the last question. I don’t consider Tesla’s 90 kWh pack to be better than 85 kWh for example.
But put it this way: I do believe Tesla has planned/designed their 2170 packs to be overall better than 18650 packs and hence the future cell/pack for all products (for the time being). If they fail to accomplish that for whatever reason that might surface — if the product turns out to be bad for example — that is another thing of course. Do you see reason to worry about the 2170s?
I do think there is more to packs than energy density and cooling and I’m not sure even those hold exactly true for Model S/X. I would not be surprised for example if Tesla managed to fit more kWh in Model S/X with the 2170 form-factor in practice. Other battery characteristics like charging speed and performance sustainability questions may also turn out better once we see Tesla’s next steps.
Again, does anyone really believe the new Roadster is using 18650s? And that they’d forgo using 18650s there if that guaranteed the best performance... I just don’t see that happening either way.
Tesla has done fairly well in updating Model S details to keep it somewhat fresh (already before launch) but one thing that really betrays its age in a brand new Model S is the electric trunk closing. From the button to the sound it makes, that is decidedly 2000s.
Model X fixes that one...None of that updating of course helps with the fact that for someone experienced in Teslas, Model S is still getting stale with little reason to upgrade and of course Model 3 has many things better in other areas.
whitex
Well-Known Member
What if there was a new 18650 replacement coming with the Roadster for high performance cars, leaving 2170 for the lower price cars, with less performance requirements and possibly faster lifecycle (maybe expected to need new batteries every 100K miles or so). Then people who bought 2170 Model S would scream how Tesla screwed them and their flagship product should have had Roadster batteries.Well of course not to the last question. I don’t consider Tesla’s 90 kWh pack to be better than 85 kWh for example.
But put it this way: I do believe Tesla has planned/designed their 2170 packs to be overall better than 18650 packs and hence the future cell/pack for all products (for the time being). If they fail to accomplish that for whatever reason that might surface — if the product turns out to be bad for example — that is another thing of course. Do you see reason to worry about the 2170s?
I do think there is more to packs than energy density and cooling and I’m not sure even those hold exactly true for Model S/X. I would not be surprised for example if Tesla managed to fit more kWh in Model S/X with the 2170 form-factor in practice. Other battery characteristics like charging speed and performance sustainability questions may also turn out better once we see Tesla’s next steps.
Again, does anyone really believe the new Roadster is using 18650s? And that they’d forgo using 18650s there if that guaranteed the best performance... I just don’t see that happening either way.
I’m not sure how — if at all — this ”scream Tesla screwed them” plays into my opinion, I wasn’t really think about such things. I was just thinking where I believe the product roadmaps are going.
My simple belief is that Model S/X uses 18650s for historical reasons and this will change to the current best offering as soon as possible. This is what I’ve felt we’ve been hearing from Elon & co over the years — reading between the lines of course. I expect that to be 2170s barring of course any such catastrophe with the new cell you seem concerned about.
And not because of budgetary reasons but because 2170s are designed to be the current best thing in Tesla’s arsenal, whereas 18650s were the best thing years ago... I mean, Tesla and Elon even called 18650s an accident of history. They only started downplaying the cell difference when it became an issue of Osborning Model S/X sales in my view.
We can certainly agree to disagree about this, no problem.
sillydriver
Member
I always duck into the Tesla showroom when I visit the mall, which I did yesterday, where I had a brief conversation with the manager. I understand that information from showroom people isn't very reliable, but FWIW he said the Model S 100 kWh pack had a significant upgrade a few weeks ago (when the 75 was discontinued) which In part allows for next-generation supercharging. The sense I got was that the 18650 cell chemistry was upgraded, and there may now be fewer of those cells in the 100 pack than before. He believed the next capacity increment would take the car 125, which struck me as a high number. But the more definite takeaway was that 18650 form factor batteries are being improved and are not a dead end. I felt this was good information because although sales people usually don't have reliable knowledge of what's coming, they usually do have reliable knowledge of what has recently been introduced and is currently shipping.
