Okay, I've been trying to follow this and got lost somewhere. If the IV doesn't move much for LEAPS, then I thought there wouldn't be value in rolling pre-ER? And if IV does move enough to matter, you'd want to do a delayed roll?
OK. Your confusion is more than valid. It's partially because we've been intermixing a couple of issues plus a number of my post I deleted with the plots (couldn't figure out how to drop just the plots). So I'll take some time here to summarize and separate the issues, so at least you can evaluate the advice and opinions correctly. I think you might actually have it clear, but I want to be sure we're all communicating here.
First (for the benefit of those not familiar with the history of some of this), we're assuming this discussion is based around holding a bull position in TSLA, using LEAPS as a rolling position to substitute for a stock position. Therefore the decisions are based on a continually bull position, but to minimize the time degradation. This is done to hold a 'stock risk' equivalent position with less capital allocation. With that context, the discussion at hand is when to roll out existing J15s to J16s for maximum benefit.
Based on my experience in implementing this methodology, the time vs risk guidance is to roll about 6 months from expiration, but within 4 months minimum. Generally the best time to roll is at the peaks (due to Delta tracking, covered earlier). I rolled mine out earlier this year due to the large run up to $260 and experiencing a major pullback (rolled most out back at $240 or so). With the recent partial recovery, those that held J15 lower leg now evaluating the best roll forward timing. I think that's largely the quick version of the context.
The current question at hand is to roll now or wait for ER. I presented a case with some charts to show that currently, even though we've had a local potential peak rise, the IV is very low for all options, including our J15 LEAPS ($300 strike specifically, but really all strikes). An increase in IV can induce higher values for our options, so needs to be considered. As pz1975 noted, changes in IV are much higher for shorter term options and so have less effect on the decision to gain maximum benefit.
So with all that for context, let's summarize where we are and what the opined advice actual is so we're all clear. IV will definitely have effects on the J15 LEAP. You can use the theo values to check this, but if current IV of 43 rises to say 65 the option value will double (even when taking 60 more days of time value off and maintaining the current underlying $230).
But it's also true the further out you are from expiration, the less IV will actually change for your option. For a 2 year LEAP, there virtually no change even if the IV values for weeklies are spiking. By the time we reach the next ER (say late July, early Aug), you'll be down to 5 or so months to expiration and the IV effects that were essentially none existent a year ago, still won't approach the weeklies, but will change more than in the past, having more effect than what you may have experienced on those same LEAP positions.
Based on my experience, if you wait for yet another ER early Nov, you'll be even more highly influenced by IV plus enter time value losses inconsistent with the lower risk stock replacement scenario in our context. Fine for that risk, but not within the lower risk of our premise. That leaves this coming ER as the last remaining ER influenced roll, hence a decision to roll now (or soon) or wait for that ER.
I've already rolled, so this advice for those with remaining J15s to roll from this corner is as follows. This coming ER time is actually my normal role time. It's well within the time frame and actually affords some time after. The IV effect will be much less than a weekly, but more than in the past and we know IV tends to move for TSLA at ER and coming into it.
Hence my original posted advice:
unless you think TSLA will pull back significantly take advantage of the current likelihood of some increasing IV building into the ER. The spike will be less than shorter term options, but more than previous ERs for your J15s and will have some additional effect (I saw this even on the last ER after it added to the option depression caused by TSLA drop). As it turns out I should have likely waited to roll, like those in he mist of this decision, but I saw a protracted rotation out of growth stocks and calculated they may not return by the time of this Aug ER. Looks like that was an even call and those that stuck it through are in possible relative advantage position (although you may not feel like it) to advantage the current ER with some additional leverage.
That said, the current run up is not at all a bad time to roll forward. Either decision is a decent one and you shouldn't look backward.
In summary, the IV will have more potential change (and spiking) both up going into ER and down after than earlier due to the now shorter time remaining on your J15s. But they will not approach the weeklies (to the point pk1975 was making regarding the plots I presented and deleted). Current IVs are very low offering a possible kicker for that effect. However underlying TSLA will still have the most effect, so use that as primary decision, IV as secondary, but more a factor than in the past, while still much less than very short term options (hence an important part of the 4-6 months roll outs to mimic stock level risks).
I hope this is helpful to your decisions. Best to all of us!
